1st November, 2016 Transport Modelling – Developing a better understanding of Short Lived Events Marcel Pooke – Operational Modelling & Visualisation Manager Transport For London – Surface Transport, Road Space Management

Introduction

Marcel Pooke Operational Modelling & Visualisation Manager

Ensuring Population/Productive Growth Employment 1.6m New Londoner s 0.6m New jobs

Impact on Transport +22% +22% +30% Travel expected to increase by... 15% of UK’s traffic congestion is concentrated in London, on just 1,500 km of the country’s 400,000km of road Travel expected to increase by... + 1 % Congestion costs the London £5bn a year Veh kms 2015 2031 +22% +22% +30%

What is a Model? A simplified representation of a part of the real world Our models emulate the movement of goods vehicles, taxis, buses, cyclists, cars and pedestrians through the network Using our knowledge of the network, we replicate real-life conditions in our models to test future scenarios and predict outcomes

Why do we need models? We need models to... Perform analysis: 8 Why do we need models? We need models to... Perform analysis: Without impacts on street Before any work is done To plan for contingency situations Ensure that we balance the needs of all road users Help us to predict the impact of schemes in the future Enable us to clearly communicate Maximise the benefits of a scheme

How do we understand these challenges over a short term horizon? What is a short term horizon? What are these short lived events? Why is it important to be able to quantify? 1 day, 5 days, 30 days Emergency Roadworks, Planned Closures, As congestion/delay/air pollution costs London’s economy every day, understand the problem

Traditional Transport Modelling

Four Stage Modelling Demand: Population (work related, non work related) Activities: Commuting, Leisure, Business Based trips Destination: Shopping (leisure), Office, School, Home Mode: Walking, Cycling, Vehicle Traffic, Public Transport Route: Least Cost Journey (Value of Time)

Static Traffic Assignment Algorithmic Structure Mins Link Flow 0..............30...............60 Link cost based on updated Link Flow Find Shortest Path Update Link Flow Stopping Criterion If flow stops changing then stop If for all used paths, the travel times are equal, then stop

Video – Parliament Square

Real World Solution

Dynamic Traffic Assignment Algorithm Framework Mins Link Flow 0......15.......30.......45......60 Simulation to estimate time-varying link travel time Find Time -Dependant Shortest Path Update Vehicle Path Assignment Stopping Criterion If for all used paths, the travel times are equal, then stop If flow stops changing then stop

Static Vs Dynamic User Equilibrium Uniform demand Uniform network capacity Instantaneous loading and arrival at destination of all trips Junctions are either permanently at capacity (too much demand) or under capacity Dynamic Demand is not uniform over the study period Network capacity is not uniform Trips take time to complete their journey Different junctions become at capacity for different lengths of time and different points of time. More realistic behaviour of traffic

Case Study – Story so far

Understanding Big Data Big Data and CLOUD Twitter for Incident Detection 20 Million Bluetooth Detections A Co-Operative Network is one where all nodes (vehicles, infrastructure, people) are connected together in real time Information is shared between nodes and informed decisions are made 30 Billion Mobile Data Sets– No Infrastructure Costs Real Time GPS Data

Study Objectives Develop a day to day route-choice model to capture the response of drivers to mid-term

What do we need to deliver this solution Data: Origins & Destination Study Area: Kingsway Fire (Holborn) An Algorithm Dynamic Assignment Traffic Model

Testing Different Software

TOM TOM Traffic Stats Route queries

Conclusions Limited Success to date due to lack of tracking data Need to explore other test cases across London Explore ‘Machine Learning’ with real-time data

Contact Palestra House Email address: Marcel.Pooke@tfl.gov.uk 197 Blackfriars Road London SE1 8NJ Email address: Marcel.Pooke@tfl.gov.uk Telephone: 02030542656