Risks of different events

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Presentation transcript:

Criteria for Non-Proliferation in the Nuclear Power Industry Richard Wilson Harvard University

Risks of different events Natural Radiation Nuclear War Cigarettes Asteroid 1 Million Air Pollution Arsenic EPA Regulations Nuclear Accident Nuclear workers

(1) The ease of making a nuclear bomb from the facility being protected must be LESS THAN the ease of making a bomb in the absence of the facility (2) The nuclear power industry must be designed to increase rather than decrease, those open contacts that reduce the desire of a country or person to make bombs

(1) It is better to have a neighbor who has no bombs (2) Some powerful countries that have no bombs (Canada, Germany, Japan)

Nuclear industry can reduce proliferation A. Recognize the problem B. Understand the problem C. Keep eyes and ears open Ultimately, only an open society can prevent proliferation

Time needed to make a bomb:

USA: 4 years 1941- decision 1945- test

UK, USSR, France, China a bit slower- approximately 5 years

Pakistan: 15 years Iraq: greater than 8 years

Germany and Japan : 1 year (now)

Can this time be shortened with Nuclear Power?

Uranium Bomb U Simple Extraction U3O8 UF6 Flouorine Chemistry Calutron Gaseous Diffusion Centrifuge Nozzler Laser Isotope Separation Bomb Design Gun Compression

Plutonium Bomb As before with the Uranium Bomb Reactor Pu Separation Bomb Design (Compression) Preignition Heat

How Can the Nuclear Industry Reduce the Risk of Nuclear War?

General Increase Prosperity

Use a Network to Discourage Bombs Specific Use a Network to Discourage Bombs

The Risk of Nuclear War is Large Enough that a Small Relative Increase is Unacceptable

By Making Material Processes Available the Nuclear Power Industry can Inevitably Increase Proliferation Risk

1950’s Illusions Nuclear Power is completely decoupled from Bomb Making It is not possible to make a Bomb with Reactor-grade Pu

Reactor Grade Plutonium Sakcharov said it is not possible to make a bomb with reactor grade Plutonium in 1977 BUT Serber in 1942 and Mark in 1991 said this was possible (as have Carwin and others)

Understand the Problem and Keep Your Eyes Open