Public Perceptions 2 CEDM M. Granger Morgan with Rachel Dryden, Ann Bostrom and Wandi Bruine de Bruin Rachel Rachel Ann Wandi

Task 1 in the CEDM proposal 1) Develop and implement mental model and other studies to understand the prevalence of the "air pollution" model and other analogies that people use in thinking about GHGs and climate change and assess how firmly those analogies and images are established; 2) Develop, evaluate, and iteratively refine methods to communicate, and when necessary correct, mental models of the role played by GHGs in producing climate change; 3) Perform mental model and other studies to understand how people conceptualize the task of decarbonizing the different parts of the U.S. energy system; and 4) Using a variety of media and framings, develop, evaluate, and iteratively refine new methods to communicate, and when necessary correct, mental models of the nature of, and challenges posed by decarbonizing the energy system, and assess the potential effects of such information on self efficacy beliefs and motivations.

There is no single residence time for CO2 How a pulse of CO2 added today decays over time: BUT, for policy purposes it is ≥100s of years. Then, on time scales of thousands of years, it mineralizes. Image source: IPCC AR5 WG1q

Does the US public know this? Work we have recently completed shows clearly the answer is NO. Paper now in review at Risk Analysis

We did an Allegheny county mail survey 400 addresses randomly sampled from zip codes across the Greater Pittsburgh Area 119 returned (30%)

Post cards a week before

Clearly marked envelopes Current Resident Address

Survey and incentive enclosed Mail back envelope

Sample demographics Summary statistics for Pennsylvania and MTurk study samples   Sample Allegheny County MTurk US Female 55% 52% 49% 51% Mean age 56* 41 36.6 36.8 Education 96% finished high school 44% completed college 21% completed graduate training - 88% finished high school 59% some college 33% completed college 12% completed graduate training Political affiliation 55% D 28% R 17% I 60% D 27% R 13% I 46% D 19% R 35% I 47% D 41% R 12% I * sample mean age is statistically higher than Allegheny County’s mean age

Two key parallel questions We defined air pollution as: “Common air pollution (that is pollution like smog, oxides of sulfur and nitrogen, organic gases, and fine particles.” One question in the air pollution section read: One question in the air pollution section read:

Survey content Four sections 1. Air pollution 2. Carbon dioxide 3. Electricity 4. Climate change Question types True-false Ranking & value attribution Multiple choice Degree of agreement Demographic Sections 1 and 2 were alternated to minimize order effects (we found none).

Ann also ran an MTurk study that used the identical questions about atmospheric lifetimes. The recruiting message was vague and did not mention climate change or air pollution. She obtained 1,013 responses.

Average results

Individual by individual results

“Less than a few percent of the common air pollution/ carbon dioxide that is in the atmosphere here in the United States has come from places that are thousands of miles away.” Carbon Dioxide Air Pollution

Next steps

You’ve probably all seen our “bathtub model”

We are working to come up with others But folks do pretty well explaining this one Nobody could explain what happens in this one Imagine that the water is carbon dioxide and the container is the atmosphere. What will happen over time? Rachel is now exploring this one animated.

In addition to moving on… …to address the other steps we outlined in Task 1 of our proposal we are also beginnining to think about two other related topics. FEMA flood map for the Susquehanna river near West Pittston, PA. The blue shaded areas on the east and west banks of the river are high risk. The dark gray areas beyond the blue areas are at moderate risk. The areas outside of the shaded areas are not expected to be impacted by a 100-year flood. 1. Developing better strategies than “100 year event” formulations for things like floods when statistics are not stationary

2. Communicating about attribution We expect to have more to report on all these topics next year. National Academies, 2016

Thanks