The Global Technology Revolution Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015 February 2002Page 1 " Trendpfade und ihre Eintrittstickets " Das Zusammenspiel potentieller Interaktionsfelder und ihrer Effekte in der Technologie Revolution bis 2015 Unterscheiden Sie zwischen "Erfinden der Zukunft" und Vorhersagen der Zukunft" Michael Klemen

The Global Technology Revolution Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015 February 2002Page 2 How to do it 1. Laufendes Geschäft heute kurzfristig mittelfristig langfristig Extrapolieren über Roadmaps Produkte Technologien Kunden Retropolieren aus Szenarien Neue Märkte Neue Kundenanforderungen Neue Technologien Neue Geschäftsmöglichkeiten Zeithorizont Einflussfaktoren Individuum Gesellschaft Politik Ökonomie Umwelt Technologie Kunden Wettbewerb Szenarien aus den Arbeitsgebieten Automation & Control Information & Communication Lightning Medical Power Transportation Strategische Vision Source: FAZ, Siemens, Feb.2002

The Global Technology Revolution Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015 February 2002Page 3 Type A Adoption Type B Adoption Type C Adoption Visibility Maturity Peak of Inflated Expectations Slope of Enlightenment Actual Benefit Perceived Benefit Technology Trigger Trough of Disillusionment Plateau of Productivity Source: Gartner Research Hype cycles 1.

The Global Technology Revolution Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015 February 2002Page Visibility Year Peak of inflated Expectations Slope of Enlightenment Technology Trigger Trough of Disillusionment Plateau of Productivity Source: Gartner Research Internet Web Dot-Com Starts U.S. IPOs 1997/1998 U.S. Xmas 1998 European IPOs 1999 Dot-Com Share Fallout Investor Disillusionment Brick-and-Mortar Failures Dot-Com Shakeout Business Disillusionment True E-Business Emerges Optimised E-Business Post-Internet Businesses Era on NLOs 2006 to 2008 E-Business Ends E is Best e Hype cycle 1.

The Global Technology Revolution Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015 February 2002Page 5 Visibility Maturity Source: Gartner Research Wireless CRM CRM Infrastructures Self- Service VolP Web Collaboration WAP State-Based Analytics Contact Center CRM Analytics CRM Rules-Based Personalization Proprietary Data Structures CMS Universal Queue Marketing Banner Ads ASPs Unassisted Selling ERMS EAI SFA Call Center IVR ACD Web Measurement Database Marketing Affinity Programs Type A Adoption Type B Adoption Type C Adoption CRM Hype cycle 1. Peak of inflated Expectations Slope of Enlightenment Technology Trigger Trough of Disillusionment Plateau of Productivity

The Global Technology Revolution Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015 February 2002Page 6 Type A Adoption Type B Adoption Type C Adoption Benefit Time Source: Gartner Research Wireless cycle 1. Peak of inflated Expectations Slope of Enlightenment Technology Trigger Trough of Disillusionment Plateau of Productivity Wireless available in market leaders 2001 Devices available Limited Software – 2004 Wireless fever Expectations of users not widely met 2006 Some enterprises will gain great success Wireless technology adapted in most software applications 2008

The Global Technology Revolution Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015 February 2002Page 7 Outlook2. Range of potential interacting areas and effects of the Technology Revolution by 2015 Source: RAND

The Global Technology Revolution Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015 February 2002Page 8 Tickets2. Technology Revolution by 2015 Trend Paths, Meta-Trends & Tickets Source: RAND

The Global Technology Revolution Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015 February 2002Page 9 Findings3. Range of possible future developments and effects from Genetically Modified Foods Source: RAND

The Global Technology Revolution Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015 February 2002Page 10 Findings3. Range of possible future developments and effects of Smart Materials Source: RAND

The Global Technology Revolution Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015 February 2002Page 11 Findings3. Range of possible future developments and effects of Nanotechnology Source: RAND

The Global Technology Revolution Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015 February 2002Page 12 Synergies4. The synergistic Interplay of Technologies Source: RAND

The Global Technology Revolution Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and their synergies with Information Technology by 2015 February 2002Page 13 Thank You