Science to Services : Future Global Data-processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS) Michel Jean President of CBS Paul Davies, Yuki Honda Co-chairs OPAG DPFS

We live in a time of brilliant technologies and the rhythm of innovation is increasing at an unprecedented pace. We are flooded by earth observations, social media provides access to contextual information and unprecedented dissemination mechanisms and high performance computing platform allow us to tackle previously unsolvable problems. It is only a matter of time before the fusion of weather, big data technologies and business applications go mainstream and change the way people and businesses view weather and water data, and experience the force-multiplying effects it will have on improving life and weather sensitive business decisions. Not only is this forcing us to rethink our business models, our recruitment and training strategies and our partnership strategies at the national level, it will also have a fundamental impact on the global meteorological enterprise.

What is a Data Processing and Forecasting System? What is the GDPFS? - The GDPFS makes available among WMO Members, in operational conditions, agreed products and services for applications related to: Weather Climate Water Environment - The GDPFS is the world-wide network of operational centres operated by WMO Members - The GDPFS supports national data-processing, monitoring and forecasting services, and decision-making processes by using high-quality products and services (in terms of accuracy, timeliness and fitness for purpose) provided by GDPFS Centres - The GDPFS enables scientific and technological advances made in meteorology and related fields to be shared as efficiently and effectively as possible among, and for the benefit of, WMO Members (including the building of capacity in developing countries)

The GDPFS today… The GDPFS is organized as a three-level system to carry out functions at global, regional and national levels: World Meteorological Centre (WMC) / Global Producing Centre (GPC) Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre / Regional Climate Centre (RSMC / RCC) National Meteorological Centre (NMC) The GDPFS currently has: 3 WMCs 25 RSMCs with Geographical Specialization and 16 with Activity Specialization 12 Global Producing Centres for Long-range Forecasts (GPCLRF) 5 RCCs and 1 RCC-Network 1 Lead Centre (LC) for Long-range Forecast (LRF) Multi-model Ensemble 1 LC for Standard verification System for LRF 1 LC for determinist NWP verification 1 LC for EPS verification. Following CBS-16 recommendation, there will be significant changes to be considered by EC-69 (in May 2017). These include, inter alias, more WMCs and the RSMCs with geographical specialization mapped onto the new criteria (i.e. functions) associated with a specific activity(ies); new designation criteria of centres coordinated and monitored by other technical commissions, such as: JCOMM – numerical ocean prediction; wave forecasts; marine met services; marine environmental response; and wave verification; CCl, CAS, WCRP – Near-term Climate Prediction. test footer 4 4

GDPFS Layers Global Centers – High-Quality Information WIGOS R&D WIS Global Centers – High-Quality Information Regional Centers – High-Quality & High-Res Information National Centers – Tailoring products A Future Urban Layer Verification Data & Impact Data What is the GDPFS? - The GDPFS makes available among WMO Members, in operational conditions, agreed products and services for applications related to: Weather Climate Water Environment - The GDPFS is the world-wide network of operational centres operated by WMO Members - The GDPFS supports national data-processing, monitoring and forecasting services, and decision-making processes by using high-quality products and services (in terms of accuracy, timeliness and fitness for purpose) provided by GDPFS Centres - The GDPFS enables scientific and technological advances made in meteorology and related fields to be shared as efficiently and effectively as possible among, and for the benefit of, WMO Members (including the building of capacity in developing countries)

How GDPFS relates to WIGOS and WIS The GDPFS relates to WIGOS through: - WMCs and RSMCs identify the observational requirements to conduct all functions of their own activities and express them through the corresponding application areas of the Rolling Review of Requirements and associated Statement of Guidance (e.g. Global NWP, high-resolution NWP, Nowcasting and Very Short-range Forecasting, Sub-seasonal to Longer Predictions). - Quality control processes implemented in the GDPFS, which adhere to the WIGOS quality assurance and quality control standards (e.g. through the WIGOS NWP monitoring Pilot Project) The GDPFS relates to WIS as the main support for the exchange and delivery of GDPFS data, products and services is the WMO Information System (WIS). One of the key features of the WIS compared to the previous GTS is the expansion of the range of centres that can connect to the system; this in turn supports growth in the range of GDPFS applications. Currently, WMCs are registered under WIS as GISCs or DCPCs; RSMCs are registered under WIS as DCPCs and NMCs are registered under WIS as NCs. The GDPFS deals with the operational production arrangements and practices for weather, climate, water and related environment.

The Manual on the GDPFS A single source of technical regulations for all operational data-processing and forecasting systems operated by WMO Members It includes the criteria for designation of operational centres, including those coordinated by CBS, jointly with other technical commission(s) and/or WMO Programme(s), as well as with other international organizations The GDPFS regulates the operational production arrangements and practices, through its Manual (WMO-No. 485). It describes the criteria for designation of centres (including functions and operational procedures, list of mandatory and recommended products and information to be exchanged, data policy, etc.). It is a single source of technical regulations for all operational data-processing and forecasting systems operated by WMO Members. The revision of the Manual on the GDPFS (WMO‑No. 485) has been recently considered at the sixteenth session of the Commission for Basic Systems (CBS-16, November 2016), who recommended to the Executive Council its adoption. This revised version includes the criteria for designation of operational centres, including those coordinated by CBS, jointly with other technical commission(s) and/or WMO Programme(s), as well as with other international organizations. I take this opportunity to highlight the significant collaboration among experts from the various technical commissions. 7 7

New type of centres (examples) This revised Manual enables the integration of new type of centres, and therefore also enables scientific and technological advances made in meteorology and related fields to be shared as efficiently and effectively as possible among and for the benefit of WMO Members, such as: (e.g.) RSMC for atmospheric sand and dust storm forecasts (with CAS) Lead Centre for Near-term Climate Prediction (with CCl, CAS, WCRP) Lead Centre for Ocean Wave Forecast Verification (with JCOMM) Many others…. ASDF with CAS OWFV with JCOMM NTCP with CCl, CAS and WCRP 8 8

Issues and Gaps Not all socio-economic sectors are currently served with fit-for-purpose GDPFS outputs Not all NMHSs have the capacity to pull and use the data Not all sectors fully understand the benefits that could accrue to their application of a S/GDPFS Requirements of all sector applications for fit-for-purpose GDPFS outputs are not clearly defined Sub-seasonal to seasonal range and nowcasting forecast skill is a gap Non-traditional datasets to enable development of impact and risk-based products are not accessible The research to operations process is ad hoc… and the final mile to Services is sometimes missing… There are no unified standards for the provision of data info and content There is no common platform where users can access all GDPFS data

The future GDPFS will… Be an effective and adaptable monitoring and prediction system enabling Members and partners to make better-informed decisions Facilitate the provision of impact-based forecasts and risk-based warnings through partnership and collaboration Do so through the sharing of weather, water, climate and related environmental data, products and services in a cost effective, timely and agile way, with the effect of benefitting all WMO Members, while also reducing the gaps between developed and developing Members These developments are aligned with the future GDPFS, which by definition, enables seamless operations. The GDPFS will (vision statement as approved by EC-68): - Be an effective and adaptable monitoring and prediction system enabling Members and partners to make better-informed decisions - Facilitate the provision of impact-based forecasts and risk-based warnings through partnership and collaboration - Do so through the sharing of weather, water, climate and related environmental data, products and services in a cost effective, timely and agile way, with the effect of benefitting all WMO Members, while also reducing the gaps between developed and developing Members

What do we mean by Seamless GDPFS

Seamless science, modelling and prediction Weather forecasting Functionality from climate fed back to weather (e.g. dust, composition) Improving weather forecast model leads to improved climate prediction Shared infrastructure Climate prediction

Seamless across timescales Essential support to decision making on all timescales Past climate Now Hours Days 1-week 1-month Seasonal Decadal Climate Confidence boundary Analysis of past weather observations to manage climate risks Eg. Agriculture: informs crop choice, planting to yield optimisation and minimise crop failure risk. Predicting routine and hazardous weather conditions. Public, emergency response, international Disaster Risk Reduction Monthly to decadal predictions - probability of drought, cold, hurricanes…. Contingency planners, national and international humanitarian response, government and private infrastructure investment Global and regional climate predictions. Informs mitigation policy and adaptation choices. Impacts on water resources, heat stress, crops, infrastructure. Forecast lead-time

Seamless towards impacts Weather & climate extremes Weather Translation to hazards Impact Estimation Reducing risk and response Scenarios Weather analysis & forecast data Extraction of relevant information Placing into situational context Mitigation strategies Weather Information provider Weather-impacted user

Components of a S/GDPFS The S/GDPFS will, inter alia: Implement a Rolling Review of User Requirements, to ensure that it addresses the user needs in the various sectors; Broaden the cascading process to cover the various timescales (from weather to climate) and wider range of hazards and applications and sectors (e.g. agriculture, marine/ocean, hydrology, aeronautic, DRR, health, energy, etc.); Implement the revised Manual on the GDPFS (WMO-No. 485) with the designation of new types of Centres; Facilitate technological advances and science pull-through to operations. Similarly to what has been done with e.g. TIGGE-GIFS, mature research products and results (typically a subset of what has been put in place for research purposes) are transferred into operations, through the definition of operational procedures for exchange of information, including data policy aspects; Implement a Quality Management System for GDPFS Centres, including audit (in terms of functions and performance, including fitness for purpose and timeliness) and product verification (accuracy); Address improved access to GDPFS data, products and tools by NMHSs/partners/other users, through a common user interface platform with information on quality and performance, which facilitates operations and will be used typically be forecasters. This can only be done in partnership with the various technical commissions and relevant programmes, and in some cases, also with other international organizations.

S/GDPFS Benefits Building on the infrastructure provided by WIS for sharing data, the S/GDPFS will provide the infrastructure and mechanisms for Members and others to develop and share improved quality, diversity and relevance of information. This will include: Increasing resilience by developing the next generation cascading process and reducing the complexity of delivery systems; Providing more weather, climate and hydrological observation and model outputs to Members Increasing accessibility and discoverability of data for the benefit of external users; and Facilitating technology advances and science pull through to operations. Closing the research to operations cycle through a R2O – O2R function

Implementation and Governance

Implementation Phases Building the Foundation Implement a Rolling Review of User Requirements, to increase understanding and buy-in to the concept of a S/GDPFS and ensure that it will address the user needs in the various sectors; Implement the revised Manual on the GDPFS (WMO-No. 485) with the designation of new-type of Centres; Fully integrate with and leverage the power of WIS and WIGOS Improve the inter-operability of Centres and define requirements for observations and datasets to move in the direction of impact-based forecasts and risk-based warnings at all timescales Broaden the network of Centres to cover all timescales (from weather to climate) and the wider range of hazards, applications and sectors (e.g. agriculture, marine/ocean, hydrology, aeronautic, DRR, health, energy, etc.);

Implementation Phases (Continued) Normalize the research to operations to client feedback process Facilitate technological advances and science pull-through to operations similarly to what has been done with TIGGE-GIFS, i.e. mature research products and results (typically a subset of what has been put in place for research purposes) are transferred into operations, through the definition of operational procedures for exchange of information, including data policy aspects; Implement a Quality Management System for GDPFS Centres that regularizes the user feedback loop, establishes audit procedures (in terms of functions and performance including fitness for purpose and timeliness) and product verification (accuracy); Move to a common platform Address improved access to GDPFS data, products and algorithms by NMHSs/partners/other users, through a common user platform with information on quality and performance, which facilitates operations and will be used typically be forecasters.

In summary, the seamless GDPFS is… WMO foundational activity addressing the data-processing and forecasting needs of the weather, climate, water and environmental services of its Members A framework For integrating all WMO data-processing and forecasting systems under a common regulatory and management framework To enable and strengthen the R2O2S value-chain An incentive for continuous innovation and integration with other technological endeavours In summary, the seamless GDPFS is: - WMO foundational activity addressing the data-processing and forecasting needs of the weather, climate, water and environmental services of its Members; - A framework for integrating all WMO data-processing and forecasting systems under a common regulatory and management framework. The seamless GDPFS is not: - Replacing or taking over existing data- processing and forecasting systems, which will continue to be owned and operated by the various technical commissions and programmes. Example presented relates to the Global Producing Centres for Long- range Forecasts, wherein the development of the designation criteria (including functions and operational procedures, list of mandatory products and recommended products to be exchanged, data policy, etc.), as well as the monitoring process, are under the responsibility of the joint CBS-CCl Expert Team on Operational Predictions from Sub-seasonal to Longer-time Scales (ET-OPSLS).

We live in a time of brilliant technologies and the rhythm of innovation is increasing at an unprecedented pace. We are flooded by earth observations, social media provides access to contextual information and unprecedented dissemination mechanisms and high performance computing platform allow us to tackle previously unsolvable problems. It is only a matter of time before the fusion of weather, big data technologies and business applications go mainstream and change the way people and businesses view weather and water data, and experience the force-multiplying effects it will have on improving life and weather sensitive business decisions. Not only is this forcing us to rethink our business models, our recruitment and training strategies and our partnership strategies at the national level, it will also have a fundamental impact on the global meteorological enterprise.

Thank you