Why is the Global Population Increasing? Chapter 2 key issue 2 Why is the Global Population Increasing?

About 82 million people are added to the population of the world annually.

Like population itself, POPULATION GROWTH is not uniformly distributed.

Measuring Population Growth Crude Birth Rate (CBR) – total number of live births expected for every 1,000 people (year) - Crude Death Rate (CDR) – total number of expected deaths for every 1,000 people (year) = Natural Increase Rate (NIR) – percentage by which a population grows in a year. CBR - CDR = NIR

Global Birth Rates (CBR) Highest in Africa and South/Southwest Asia FIGURE 2-11 CRUDE BIRTH RATE (CBR ) The global distribution of CBRs parallels that of NIRs. The countries with the highest CBRs are concentrated in Africa and Southwest Asia. Highest in Africa and South/Southwest Asia

High in Africa, but also in many more developed countries GLOBAL DEATH RATE (CDR) FIGURE 2-13 CRUDE DEATH RATE (CDR) The global pattern of CDRs varies from those for the other demographic variables already mapped in this chapter. The demographic transition helps to explain the distinctive distribution of CDRs. High in Africa, but also in many more developed countries

GLOBAL NATURAL INCREASE (NIR) FIGURE 2-10 NATURAL INCREASE RATE The world average is currently about 1.2 percent. The countries with the highest NIRs are concentrated in Africa and Southwest Asia. Many developing countries have high NIR, while developed countries are very low

NIR does NOT account for immigration/emigration, only births v. deaths

…But that’s for next chapter! Many developed countries would either stay flat or actually shrink in population, if not for IMMIGRATION

Other Important Metrics TOTAL FERTILITY RATE (TFR) Average number of children a woman will have throughout her childbearing years (15–49) World TFR is 2.5 TFR often exceeds 5 in sub-Saharan Africa, while at 2/less in nearly all European countries.

GLOBAL FERTILITY (TFR) Like CBR, highest in SS Africa & SE/SW Asia FIGURE 2-12 TOTAL FERTILITY RATE (TFR) As with NIRs and CBRs, the countries with the highest TFRs are concentrated in Africa and Southwest Asia. Like CBR, highest in SS Africa & SE/SW Asia

Other Important Metrics Infant Death Rate (IDR) Total deaths (before first year) per 1,000 live births AKA Infant Mortality (IMR)

GLOBAL INFANT MORTALITY (IDR) Highest in SS Africa & all of South Asia; indicator of level of development

Summary of Patterns Developing Countries Higher rates of… Developed Natural increase Crude birth Total fertility Infant mortality Developed Countries Lower rates of… Natural increase Crude birth Total fertility Infant mortality

If this held true, the world pop’n would be 10 billion right now! DOUBLING TIME The time it would take for a population to double at current natural growth rates. Used to project future population 2015 NIR (1.2%): 54 years. 1963 NIR of (2.2%): 35 years. If this held true, the world pop’n would be 10 billion right now!

DOUBLING TIME is volatile because even small changes in NIR can have major impact on projected doubling times.

Sources of Pop’n Data United States Census Bureau Federal body responsible for producing data about the American people and economy

Official pop’n count conducted every 10 years (on years ending in ‘0’) The CENSUS Official pop’n count conducted every 10 years (on years ending in ‘0’) Purpose is to count every person in the United States, and to collect data about them

The CENSUS is controversial because- NONPARTICIPATION EXTRAPOLATION Not everyone can be counted – homeless, illegal aliens, etc- and not everyone thinks they SHOULD be Not everyone can be counted, so ‘extrapolations,’ or educated guesses, are made for certain populations

Sources of Pop’n Data Population Reference Bureau - nonprofit Releases Annual Report- World Population Data Sheet  presents data from 200 countries on important demographic and health metrics

Population Structure Much can be learned by analyzing the age and sex structure of a country’s population A special bar graph known as a POPULATION PYRAMID can visually display a country’s distinctive population structure.

Populations structures vary by country…

…and also from place to place within a country! FIGURE 2-14 POPULATION PYRAMIDS FOR THE UNITED STATES AND SELECTED U.S. COMMUNITIES Laredo has a broad pyramid, indicating higher percentages of young people and fertility rates. Lawrence has a high percentage of people in their twenties because it is the home of the University of Kansas. Naples has a high percentage of elderly people, especially women, so its pyramid is upside down.

Issues in population pyramids DEPENDENCY RATIO The number of people who are too young/old to work, compared to the number of people in their productive years. Ages 0-14 and 65+ are Dependents. Larger ratios mean high financial burden on working class, who must pay for care of the young/old.

The pyramid of Ghana has a heavy YOUTH BULGE – a large proportion of young dependents

Sweden’s pyramid is healthier, with a strong working population to support dependents

Issues in population pyramids SEX RATIO Defined as the number of males per 100 females in the population Developed countries have more females, as they live 7 years longer on average. Many developing countries have more men, because male babies are preferred

GLOBAL SEX RATIO FIGURE 2-16 SEX RATIO A map of the percentage of people over age 65 would show a reverse pattern, with the highest percentages in Europe and the lowest in Africa and Southwest Asia.

Sometimes imbalances are due to historical factors Sometimes imbalances are due to historical factors. WHY MIGHT MORE ELDERLY RUSSIANS BE WOMEN?

Population Pyramids allow us to visualize data and to assess demographic issues in a country

Signs of trouble…..

DEVELOPED COUNTRIES Australia Netherlands Austria New Zealand Belgium Canada Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Iceland Ireland Israel Italy   Netherlands New Zealand Norway Portugal South Africa Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United States