Col Randy Larsen, USAF (Ret.) The Biological Warfare Threat Col Randy Larsen, USAF (Ret.) A Public Service Research Institute Serving The National Interest Since 1958

Determining the Threat Capability X Vulnerability X Intent = THREAT

Biological Warfare Nov. 16, 1997: Defense Secretary William Cohen holds up a five-pound bag of sugar on ABC's This Week. A similar amount of Anthrax could destroy half the population of Washington.

Lethality With ideal conditions (a clear, calm night) a single aircraft, using an efficient aerosol generator to dispense 100 kg of anthrax spores, could adequately cover a 300 km2 area and inflict between 1,000,000 and 3,000,000 deaths. OUTLINE OF WASHINGTON, DC 300 km2 1,000,000 – 3,000,000 Source: US Congress Office of Technology Assessment, Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risks, August 1993, pg. 54.

Believers The one that scares me to death, perhaps even more so than tactical nuclear weapons, and the one we have the least capability against is biological weapons. General Colin Powell, 1993 Not just Randy Larsen, OTA, Sam Nunn, Colin Powell Powell slide Blank slide Nobody has ever used the stuff Source: Testimony of Gen. Colin Powell, US Congress, House Committee on Armed Services, Hearings on National Defense Authorization Act FYI 1994 - H.R. 2401, 103rd Cong., 1st session., H201–33 (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1993): 112.

Believers (Cont.) Bioterrorism is the single most dangerous threat to U.S. national security in the foreseeable future. Not just Randy Larsen, OTA, Sam Nunn, Colin Powell Powell slide Blank slide Nobody has ever used the stuff R. James Woolsey, Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, 1993-1995

Believers (Cont.) Dr. Joshua Lederberg Today one man can make war. A lucky bio buffoon could kill 400,000 people. Dr. Joshua Lederberg Not just Randy Larsen, OTA, Sam Nunn, Colin Powell Powell slide Blank slide Nobody has ever used the stuff For more information: Visit the National Library of Medicine's Profiles in Science website on Dr. Lederberg: www.profiles.nlm.nih.gov/BB/Views/Exhibit/bw.html

Soviet Union’s BW Program Colonel (Dr.) Kanjatan Alibekov Dr. Ken Alibek

Live Agent Tests

Credible Threat?

Human “Testing” 96 People Infected 66 Died of Pulmonary Anthrax Aerosol Release of Less Than One Gram of Anthrax Spores Sverdlovsk April 2, 1979 96 People Infected 66 Died of Pulmonary Anthrax Villages With Numerous Cases of Animal Anthrax 10 Kilometers

Aerial Dissemination

Gulf War Threat

Force Disposition

Atmospheric Conditions

Bio Vulnerability When you hear that introduction, you might wonder how I ended up being labeled as a BW expert. MASH story.* Topic is suppose to cover chem and bio. Chem is not a WMD. ORI story. Chem may slow us down and provide limited, small scale use for terrorists, but not a WMD and not a significant threat to US national security 4% of casualties in WWI, 168 tons chlorine at Ypres 1915, 11 tons phosgene released during explosion in Hamburg, 1928, 11 KIA/WIA

Biological Weapons Agent Acquisition Production Weaponization Delivery BW weapons slide ICBM to F-150 strategic attack, asymmetric attack, terrorists attack, detection, protection, who did it cruise missile attack 10 + 1 BW CW differs: BW/CW slide Type hazard (not dermally active), symptoms (immediate vs 72-96 hours), detection (none other than carbon-based)* contamination (little) lethality March 3, 1999: Dr. William Patrick attempts to illustrate how easy it is to launch biological agents at a House committee meeting.

Applied to this Equation Capability X Vulnerability X Intent = THREAT

Respond vs. React

Education First Responders Meteorological Conditions Defense Against Low-Tech Low-Cost Defense

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