Emerging issues for Open Oceans from the perspective of the science community Corinne Le Quéré Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research University of East Anglia

Climate change and ocean acidification 1950-2011 Surface temperature trends HadCRU3v 1950-2000 Surface salinity trends Durack et al. (2010; 2012) 1979-2007 Ocean–atm pCO2 trends Le Quéré et al (2010) based on Takahashi et al (2009)

Ocean deoxygenation 1990s minus 1970s O2 Changes 100-1000 m Helm, Bindoff and Church 2011 1950-2000 O2 trends at 20 m Gilbert et al. 2010 (reverse color scale) reduction in available habitat Stramma et al 2012 reduction in growth performance of fish (W Cheung et al) influences pelagic fish structure (e.g. sardine – anchovies switch in N Pac, e.g. Möllmann et al )

Atmospheric nutrient deposition N deposition from the atmosphere in 1860 in 2000 Duce et al, Science (2008)

Geoengineering and iron fertilization NASA ocean colour image, during the soiree iron fertilization experiment, 1999 July 2012

Plastic accumulation Plastic pieces per km2 Lavender Law et al, Science 2010

Thresholds, extreme events and tipping points Schrope, Nature 2012 Black Shale, Italy P. Wilson, NOC http://www.noc.soton.ac.uk/palaeo/Research/Research_Topic3_v1.php

State of observations-1 Temperature profiles, Levitus 1982 Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT) 2012 ARGO floats, Sept 2012 http://www.argo.ucsd.edu/

Incomplete but progressing quantitative understanding Climate velocity to quantify limits to adaptation in marine ecosystems Burrows et al. Science 2011 Warming impact on fisheries Cheung et al. GCB 2010 Decadal predictions of ocean temperature Keenlyside, Yeager et al. 2012

Conclusions: Several global change issues could impact and interfere with projects undertaken by GEF in the next decade Findings from GEF projects could help better quantify the importance of global issues and increase GEF visibility