Discussion by Salim Dehmej

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Presentation transcript:

Discussion by Salim Dehmej Comments on “What Slice of the Pie? The Corporate Bond Market Boom in Emerging Economies” Discussion by Salim Dehmej --------- 17-18 NOVEMBER 2016, Madrid

Topical issue Source: FT 05/10/2016 Source: FT 01/11/2016 Source: FT - Saudi Arabia’s $17.5bn bond sale has lessons for debt market

Summary Aim: Evolution of NFC’ debt composition in emerging countries, in Local & Foreign currency markets. Results: determinants of bond market access in EMs vary with global cyclical conditions (FC) and macro fundamentals (LC). Are all EM concerned? market size/liquidity and entry/exist facilities are important. The paper also highlights some financial stability risks and come out with policy recommendations.

Data & Methodology Data: 47 EMs, for the 2000–13 period. Decomposed both into bank loans and bonds, and into local and foreign currencies Uses 2 econometric technics: - Censored panel regression: Identify global and local drivers of bond market shares - Panel quantile regression: take into account the bond market development (market size)

Comments (1/5) Is it possible to extend data to 2016 instead of 2014 (capturing recent trends: during tightening) Financing structure: who buy bonds? If banks : not disintermediation but market intermediation? Is the exchange rate regime matters? Is private bond crowding out sovereign debt?

Comments (2/5) Financial stability : more details on debt: short vs long term; senior/secured? ; by rating (junk bonds?) Source: Molteni and Umana Dajud (forthcoming)

Comments (3/5) Corporate debt by sector/region Source: FSB 2015 (IMF data)

Comments (4/5) Is there any threshold? Source: FSB 2015

Comments (5/5) Policy perspective: internal/equity financing instead of debt (debt overhang/deleveraging) What about ex ante Macroprudential policy (FX related tools) and ex post capital control (CMF) measures? Form Separate the literature from the introduction (very long)? Difficult to follow all regressions -> separate robustness/sensitivity from main regressions