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Disaster Response and Civil-Military Cooperation Eric Rasmussen, MD, MDM, FACP CEO, InSTEDD

This is the standard guide.

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“Stability Operations…shall be given priority comparable to combat operations…” US DoD Directive 3000.05 28 November 2005 “We believe that preventing wars is as important as winning wars.” US National Maritime Strategy Statement October 2007

Smart Power in Humanitarian Support Power projection Irregular conflicts, reactive transformation Millennium Challenge 2002 CIA 2015 Report Resource Wars Contextual Intelligence Afghanistan Ring Road Tajik Road construction Chinese, Iranian, Turkish Disaster Response in Failed States

In my view, collaboration Refugee trauma management Katrina response In my view, collaboration in disaster response is the single most critical unmet need. Cholera outbreak

What disaster information flow requires (technically)… Collaboration Directory Federation Social Networking Virtual Teaming Reliable Messaging Social Metadata Decision Support Geospatial Visualization Autonomous Agents Predictive Modeling Distributed Workflow Alerting Report Generation Analysis Data Fusion Anomaly Detection Complex Adaptive Systems Network Analysis Text Mining Spatio-temporal Analysis Sensor Integration Information Flow Forms Design Shared Ontologies Schema Evolution Translation Deep Field Collection Geocoding Mesh Synchronization Storage Abstraction Offline Work Conflict Resolution SMS Integration Security Identity Adapters & Transformers

Likely partners in a disaster response: UN DPKO (18 current Peacekeeping Operations) UNDP (166 of 192 countries) UN-OCHA UNHCR, WFP, WHO, UNICEF NGO 44,000 and counting ICRC Prisoners and disrupted families Afghanistan: 88 intl /1200 national staff IFRC World Bank, IMF, DFID, ECHO, USAID, GTZ…

Casual, distilled 10 Commandments 20 Recommendations 30 Advisories

A subset of recognized Civ-Mil disaster response needs: Language support Independent and sustainable power Tracking of people, processes, and things Visualized information distributed broadly Sustainable transition plans with milestones Communication one-to-one, one-to-many, many-to-one Collaborative processes between agencies and organizations Operational guidelines and organizational charter accessibility Objective indicators (and impact metrics) so we know we’re progressing Information collection, analysis, and dissemination, vertical and horizontal

Information flow is almost as vital as water

“Nothing worked until you guys arrived” Six-fold communication redundancy has sometimes proved inadequate, yet… “Nothing worked until you guys arrived” Navy Theater Surgeon (Forward) Belle Chasse, New Orleans Joint Task Force Katrina

Climate Change Perhaps the dominant medium-term national security issue and disaster response preparedness requirement. Now made more acute by the global economic crisis. September 2008

Population affected by water disasters (millions/year) UNDP, 2007

Disasters by Origin 1970-2005 Origin 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99 2000-2005 Water 776 1498 2034 2135 Geological 124 232 325 233 Biological 64 170 361 420 Total 964 1900 2720 2788 “Data Against Natural Disasters”, UN-OCHA, 2008

Tajikistan Compound Crisis Natural disasters (5) Socio-economic loss (40%) Emerging infections Climate Change Religious extremism Narcotic trafficking Poverty / Brain Drain Post-Soviet disintegration

Far beyond scenario planning Singapore MINDEF Dave Snowdon’s Cynefin model of System Dynamics Far beyond scenario planning

Ghani-Lockhart Reconstruction Standards 42. Using the Lockhart Framework for failed State reconstruction and the obligations of a State to its citizenry, employ appropriate resources (e.g. sociologists and reporters) to assist in determining the frequency, style, and content of media messages designed for information exchange, reassurance, and crisis management participation, delivered to a population under pressure. The Framework items listing perceived State obligations are listed below. Fixing Failed States

Collaboration tools Climate change impact Cynefin and Complexity models Civ-Mil Field Coordinator Handbook Eric Rasmussen, MD, MDM, FACP +1 – 360 – 621 – 3592 Rasmussen @ InSTEDD.org