Civil Society Involvement in EU Trade Agreements: Mapping and explaining variation Work in Progress Deborah Martens, Myriam Oehri, Jan Orbie, Lore Van den Putte GIFTA Conference, Brussels 7-8 July 2016 Social and Labour Impacts of Free Trade Agreements

Civil Society Meetings in EU Trade Agreements EU – Central America Civil Society Forum, Brussels, June 2015 TRANSNATIONAL Civil Society Meetings in EU Trade Agreements EU - Peru-Colombia Domestic Advisory Group, Brussels, April 2016 DOMESTIC

Civil Society Involvement (CSI) in EU trade agreements Increasingly relevant Response to critics of (EU) free trade ‘Unique’ EU approach to promoting sustainable development through trade Assumption: variation across agreements (previous research)

July 2016 http://www.asser.nl/media/3044/cleer16-3_web.pdf

Civil Society Involvement (CSI) in EU trade agreements Increasingly relevant Response to critics of (EU) free trade ‘Unique’ EU approach to promoting sustainable development through trade Assumption: variation across agreements (previous research) However, limited knowledge To what extent is civil society involved? How can we explain variety across agreements? Two contributions: Empirical: Mapping Theoretical: Explaining Focus on de jure provisions of labour-related civil society meetings in 10 post-Global Europe Agreements

Explaining variation: Hypotheses HYP 1: (EU) Institutions Path-dependency: The stronger commitments on labor provisions were under former EU trade arrangements, if any, the higher will CSI be in an EU FTA with that country HYP 2: (EU) Power EU trading power: The more dependent a partner country is on the EU, the higher will CSI be in an EU FTA with that partner country HYP 3: (EU) Norms EU normative power: The less a partner country protects the rights of workers, the higher will CSI be in an EU FTA with that partner country HYP 4: (3rd country) Democracy Domestic resonance: The higher civil society participation is in a partner country, the higher will CSI be in an EU FTA with that country HYP 5: (3rd country) Competitiveness EU interests: The higher the competiveness of a country, the higher will CSI be in an EU FTA with that country HYP 6: (3rd country) Labour costs EU interests: The lower the labor costs are in a country, the higher will CSI be in an EU FTA with that country

Mapping: CSI-index Inductive: Civil society provisions in 10 EU trade agreements Selection relevant treaty provisions and identification of clusters: Participants Frequency Interaction between Civil Society Interaction Civil Society – Governments Dispute Settlement Mechanisms Development of codebook Coding (and further elaboration codebook): two independent scholars Further discussions and adjustments by the research team

Significant variation  how to explain?

Operationalization of hypotheses HYP 2: EU Trading Power: Asymmetric Interdependence The higher the difference between the dependence of a third country from the EU market and the EU’s dependence from that country’s market, the higher the EU’s trading power towards that country Source: Top trading partners in total goods (2015) in Third Country – Trade Statistics – EU Reports HYP 3: EU Norms: Freedom of Association and Collective Bargaining in Practice (Labor Rights Indicator, 2012) The FACB Indicators are based on coding the findings of nine sources, entailing five basic elements: the premises of definitional validity, reproducibility and transparency, the 108 evaluation criteria used to code violations in law and practice, the textual sources selected for coding, the general and source-specific coding rules and the weighting scheme developed through a two-stage survey of internationally recognized experts. (Score 1-10; 1=best; 10=worst) Source: http://labour-rights-indicators.la.psu.edu/about and Sari and Kucera, 2011; 2016 HYP 4: 3rd Country Democracy: Civil Society Participation (Transformation Index of the Bertelsmann Stiftung, 2016) It measures the extent to which the political leadership enables the participation of civil society in the political process (Agenda setting, Policy formulation, Deliberation and decision-making, Policy implementation, Performance monitoring) (Score: 1-10; 1=best; 10 worst) Source: http://www.bti-project.org/fileadmin/files/BTI/Downloads/Zusaetzliche_Downloads/Codebuch HYP 5: 3rd Country Competitiveness: Global Competitiveness (Global Competitiveness Report, World Economic Forum, 2016) The Global Competitiveness Report assesses the competitiveness landscape of 140 economies, providing insight into the drivers of their productivity and prosperity. It remains the most comprehensive assessment of national competitiveness worldwide. Source: http://reports.weforum.org/global-competitiveness-report-2015-2016/ HYP 6: 3rd Country Minimum Wage: Minimum Wage (Doing Business Report, World Bank, 2016) (USD per month) Source: http://www.doingbusiness.org/~/media/GIAWB/Doing%20Business/Documents/Annual-Reports/English/DB16-Chapters/DB16-Mini-Book.pdf

Civil Society Participation HYP1 HYP2 HYP3 HYP4 HYP5 HYP6 Post-South Korea EU Trading Power FACB in Practice Civil Society Participation Competitive-ness Minimum Wage Outcomes Canada 2014 9 (2/11) 1.41 (no data) 5.3 (13.) 1800,43 25 South Korea 2010 5 (3/8) 5.99 6 5.0 (26.) 882,67 21 Georgia 76 (1/77) 3.31 4.2 (66.) 23,17 18 Moldova 67 (1/68) 1.17 7 4.0 (84.) 121,76 Vietnam 2015 19 (2/21) 10.00 3 4.3 (56.) 142,45 17 Ukraine 28 (1/29) 4.48 4.9 (79.) 119,63 16 Central America 2012   11 Panama 69 (2/71) 5.18 5 4.4 (50.) 477,55 Guatemala 85 (3/88) 8.36 4.1 (78) 384,17 El Salvador 117 (4/121) 3.84 3.9 (95.) 215,82 Costa Rica 68 (2/70) 2.61 8 4.3 (52.) 569,86 Honduras 92 (2/94) 3.16 4.0 (88.) 456,98 Nicaragua 125 (5/130) 2.69 4 3.8 (108) 209,15 Singapore 13 (3/16) 1.23 5.7 (2.) 0.00  10 Colombia – Peru Colombia 38 (2/40) 6.29 4.2 (69.)  335,93 Ecuador 2016 58 (2/60) 2.05 4.1 (76.) 403,16 

Provisional findings Mapping: Explaining Significant variation of CSI From ‘participation’ to ‘interaction’? Explaining HYPs 1, 2, 3, 5, 6: clearly rejected HYP 4: largely confirmed, except Vietnam

Discussion Vietnam? European Parliament? Degree of integration?

THANK YOU Centre for EU Studies – Ghent University Jan.Orbie@UGent.be @CEUSGhent @janorbie