2011 Census outputs update Emma White Head of Census Outputs: Policy and Analysis

2011 Census outputs and dissemination Census outputs consultation process Outline of 2011 Census prospectus Running order for 2011 Census outputs Data visualisation Charging policy (commissioned tables) How will census outputs be disseminated? What tools will be available to access census outputs? What’s next?

Uses of Census data: Provides census population estimates Provides population characteristics on topics such as health, ethnicity, language, occupation, economic activity Examples The Fire Brigade - and other emergency services - use census statistics Fire brigades across the UK use census statistics to allocate resources (appliances / personnel / fire engines) and plan home fire safety visits. Having the correct number of resources to respond to fires in the shortest time, and making visits in areas of high risk, can save lives After-school lessons for grown-ups The census is the basis of indicators such as quality of life, which show the need for more community facilities, like adult services making use of school premises after hours, for activities such as exercise classes and literacy lessons

Confidence in the results There was a successful field operation for the 2011 Census and Census Coverage Survey. Return rates were good ONS is confident that it will meet its national target response rate of 94 per cent and a target response rate of at least 80 per cent in every local authority ONS is confident that fewer than 10 per cent of local authorities will be below a 90 per cent response rate ONS achieved a Census Coverage Survey response rate of 90 per cent Census response rates will be published in the first release

Consultation process Established the extent, scope and detail that census users would like to see for the 2011 Census outputs A success in terms of the high quality of responses received, and the positive feedback on the proposed outputs for 2011 Census Note : We will also be publishing a summary of our policy decisions including links to any changes.

2011 Census prospectus Web-based dynamic prospectus Users will be alerted to revisions or updates Release schedule for 2011 Census outputs 2011 Census geography Commissioned tables Specialist products outlined Data access and dissemination This is a living document Key developments for outputs Statistical release outline statistical disclosure control Table titles Very comprehensive

First release (July 2012): Age (single year) by sex for England and for Wales Age (5 year bands) for LADs/UAs in E&W - All people Age (5 year bands) for LADs/UAs in E&W - Males Age (5 year bands) for LADs/UAs in E&W - Females Additional summary household estimates table(s) Local authority quality assurance information Aiming for first release of estimates for England and Wales in July 2012 QA information is considerable Equates to 348 LAD “sets” - each with 5 tables and 5 charts Over 4,000 printable pages Draft specification includes counts of: Usual residents, Short term UK migrants, Visitors, Students, Home and Foreign Armed Forces Households, Residential addresses, Occupied households, Second residences, Vacant households, All visitor households, Holiday homes UK – Aiming for same time, won’t delay if all offices are not ready. 7

Second release (Nov 12 – Feb 13): Key Statistics and Quick Statistics Equivalent to 2001 key statistics and univariate tables More detail – eg ethnicity full classification output On introducing this slide: All planned outputs subject to revision on basis of statistical disclosure control (SDC) once populated with 2011 data Examples: 152 Ethnic group, 244 country of birth and 189 religion (Full classification) Age, sex, tenure, accommodation type 8

Third release (March 13 – June 13): Lower threshold (Output Area) statistics Maintain comparability wherever possible Expanded UK harmonisation Local characteristics designed for release at finest geography (equivalent to 2001 CAS tables) Examples: “Sex and age by general health and provision of unpaid care” “Occupation by industry” “Sex and industry by ethnic group” WE ARE CONSIDERING NEW NAMES -   Key Statistics (KS, as before); Quick Statistics (QS, formerly UV)    Lower Threshold Statistics Local Characteristics (LC, formerly CAS); Local Themes (LT, formerly CAST)

Fourth release (July 13 – October 13): Upper threshold (MSOA/Ward and above) statistics Maintain comparability wherever possible Expanded UK harmonisation Detailed characteristics and themes (equivalent to 2001 standard tables and theme tables) Upper Threshold Statistics   Detailed Characteristics (DC, formerly Standard tables) Detailed Themes (DT, formerly Standard Themes ) 3rd release – fine geography – output area 4th – high detail – high level of geography

New tables 20 per cent increase in standard outputs New information collected for the first time in 2011 Further information on existing topics Examples: “Proficiency in English by industry by economic activity by hours worked” “Accommodation type by household size by number of bedrooms” New questions: Visitor information Number of bedrooms Type of central heating Second residence Main language and English language proficiency Month / year of entry into UK Intended length of stay Passports held (as a proxy for citizenship) National identity

UK outputs An increased volume of UK harmonised tables will be made available for 2011 Census outputs The statistical agencies have an agreed aim of providing a single point of access for UK harmonised outputs We are considering new names:.....

Alternative populations Alternative population bases under consideration include: Short-term (3-12 month) immigrant population Workplace and workday populations Out-of-term population Exploration of a majority-of-time population All subject to the quality of the data. Exact tables will be decided once we understand the quality

Multi-dimensional datasets Local authority and above Designed on a thematic basis Around 10 to 12 dimensions held in cube Allows user to design their own table Flexibility Subject to statistical disclosure control constraints May consider: National based cubes National and population based Students Short term migrants

Small populations ONS has decided to develop, in conjunction with users, an innovative new package of census products The consultation highlighted the importance of making detailed and accurate data available for small population groups A small population is any sub-population distinguished by a particular characteristic eg ethnic group, language and religion

Flow data ONS is designing a wide range of specialist products for flows These interactions (flows) include: Migration Commuter patterns Enumeration address to second address Second address to workplace address Specs created by experts in this field and ONS have listened to user feedback from workshops held in October 2011 + simple flows + and cross tabulated data

Microdata Series of microdata products: Public use microdataset Building on the range of SARs produced in 2001 – possibility of increased sample sizes ONS investigating the idea of a heavily perturbed (test) microdataset for users to develop syntax Specs created by experts in this field and ONS have listened to user feedback from workshops held in November 2011 – increased sample size, moving back toward 1991

Data visualisation

Data visualisation (cont)

Data visualisation (cont)

ONS Geography prospectus Census Geography prospectus by the end of May 2012 All the products to be published, their formats, layouts, and what they will be used for When they will be published How they will be disseminated Plus information on Output Area maintenance policy and other geography policies We aim to publish the Census Geography prospectus by the end of May. It will cover ...in the main part of the prospectus.... - all the products we will publish, their formats, layouts, and what they will be used for - when they will be published (most in October, some geographies later, e.g. Workplace Zones, parliamentary constituencies) - how they will be disseminated - via a portal for electronic download - a more detailed explanation of the OA maintenance policy (5% limit on number of changes to OAs/SOAs, splits and merges) - but not details of processing so far - a restating of the other planks of the geography policy - best-fit estimates, run against output geographies as they were at 31st December 2011, creation of merged wards for the Detailed Theme tables, Workplace Zones

ONS charging policy Any data provided as standard will be made available under the national archive open government licence Commissioned tables will be charged for: price list designed for economic recovery of costs involved (price agreed prior to work commencing) Commissioned tables will be published on the ONS website New prices will be applicable for all commissioned tables (inc. historical censuses) Start date of new prices for historical commissioned tables being considered

Windows of 2011 Census releases July 2012 Nov 2012 - Feb 2013 March 2013 - June 2013 July 2013 - Oct 2013 first release second release phases third release phases fourth release 1 2 3 geography England and Wales single year of age and sex KS and QS LC DC, T and AF England Wales regions unitary / local authority middle layer super output area DC and T lower layer super output area output area 2011 wards health areas national parks KS parishes/communities parl. constituencies postcode sectors Welsh Gov. electoral areas 5-yr age bands and sex and household estimates tables will be released in phases, by geography Windows reflect length of time it takes to output all the tables UK statistics will be released when all statistical agencies have released their respective figures (SCOTLAND prospectus not coming out until May / June 2012) When will OA boundaries be available? Boundaries and other geography reference datasets will be released in October 2012, ahead of second release. These will available for electronic download, as well as on hard media by request. When will the other geography products be released? The relevant geography products will be released alongside each release of the 2011 Census statistics. Stats will be released at 9.30 am and then on through the day when there are large volumes of data Key Statistics (KS) Quick Statistics (QS) Local Characteristics (LC) Detailed Characteristics (DC) Theme (T) Armed Forces (AF)

Thank you Any questions?

Staying informed Prospectus updates register - online Prospectus email alerts - sign-up via the prospectus Census News Alerts - sign-up via censusnewsalerts@ons.gsi.gov.uk Updates register lists all the amendments to the prospectus, so users can see what has changed quickly. Prospectus email alerts will be sent out whenever a change is made, linking users to updates register for quick, easy access to decisions Census news alerts – for general updates about the census