Overview of Key Trends, 2009 Presented to Council 27 November 2009 Prof N B Pityana Vice-Chancellor & Principal

HEMIS Enrolment Trends, 2004-10

HEMIS Enrolment Trends, 2004-10 Headcount enrolments expanded steadily between 2004 and 2008 from 205 811 to 261 927 – despite the fact that from 2007 onwards, only active students were counted In 2009, for the first time, Unisa’s student enrolments flattened out The 2009 1st HEMIS submission counted 237 473 – a substantial drop of 9,3% over the previous year. This can be explained by the later exam date and consequently fewer financial cancellation reinstatements by the HEMIS census date This explanation is corroborated by the provisional 2009 2nd submission which shows 255 904 active headcounts to date. This indicates that a substantial number of financial cancellations have already been reinstated On this basis, DISA predicts a final active HC total of 260 749 for 2009 – slightly above the 2010 Ministerial target

Success Rates, 2004-8

Success Rates, 2004-8 Unisa’s FTE Success Rates have increased from 52,06% in 2004 to 54,89% in 2008 – despite a decline to 50,65% in 2006 This steady increase augers well for the achievement of the 2010 Ministerial target of 56% by 2010

Performance on 84 Targets in Unisa 2015 Strategic Plan Overall Performance Targets on Track - % Complete

Performance on 84 Targets in Unisa 2015 Strategic Plan The 5-year review of progress towards the achievement of the 2015 Strategic Plan targets showed that progress towards the original 2015 targets can be described as generally on track. Of the 84 targets: 35 (41,7%) original and revised targets have been reached 6 (7,1%) original targets have not been reached 22 (26,2%) original and revised targets are on track 16 (19,0%) original and revised targets are not on track 5 (6,0%) targets have shifted or are unclear In addition, of the 21 targets on track, 6 were between 75% - 99% complete, and a further 6 were above 50% complete

Performance Trends & Prognosis, 17 2015 SP KPIs

Performance Trends & Prognosis, 17 2015 SP KPIs Of the 17 KPIs in the 2015 Plan: 4 targets had been reached. Of these, 1 showed a positive trend, 2 showed a sideways trend and 1 a negative trend 13 targets had not yet been reached. Of these 3 showed a positive trend, 6 a sideways trend and 4 a negative trend The prognosis for achieving these targets was as follows: 4 targets had been reached 5 targets will probably/possibly be reached It is unlikely that 4 of the targets will be reached It is improbable that 4 other targets will be reached

Summary of Projections, 2009-13   Prov. 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Average annual increase: 2009-13 HC Enrolments (active) 257 071 269 731 282 987 297 028 311 814 3,5% FTE Enrolments 130 758 137 048 143 756 150 846 158 334 FTE Degree Credits (course success) 72 103 77 040 82 121 87 600 93 481 0,4% Graduates 18 200 18 558 18 923 19 295 19 674 1,9% Permanent Staff: Headcount 4 410 4 321 4 477 4 602 4 910 4,3% Staff FTE (perm & temp) 5 045 4 933 5 094 5 204 5 488 3,8% Publication Units 620 680 740 780 820 7,5% Academic staff with Ds 520 531 570 587 625 5,9% Academic staff with Ms 377 385 413 425 453 Masters graduates 120 135 147 155 165 12,6% Doctoral graduates 73 80 86 87 90 6,1% Total Research Outputs 813 895 973 1 022 1 075 4,5%

Summary of Projections, 2009-13 Unisa recently submitted its provisional Enrolment Statement to the DoHET in accordance with requirements This table summarises the provisional projections in key areas for the period 2009-13

The Challenge of Managing Unfunded Students Subsidy Criteria HEMIS 2005 HEMIS 2006 HEMIS 2007 HEMIS 2008 Projected HEMIS 2009 Projected HEMIS 2010 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 Actual WFTE 83 557,89 90 802,66 95 886,99 109 460,57 114 933,60 120 680,28 Adjusted WFTE 79 355,19 82 898,00 87 044,00 92 074,32 97 079,85 102 066,30 Unfunded WFTE 4 202,69 7 904,66 8 842,99 17 386,25 17 853,75 18 613,98 Unfunded subsidy value (mill) R 32,4 R 65,0 R 79,9 R 173,1 R 186,1 R 202,7

The Challenge of Managing Unfunded Students A key challenge facing Unisa is the number of unfunded students which arise from the capping of teaching input units allocated to HEIs according to the long-term government funding framework It can be seen that by 2012/13, a subsidy loss of R202,7m will have accumulated Subsequent iterations of the planning process will have to address this problem