Future student mobility flows in emerging middle-income countries: Angel Calderon and Anand Kulkarni, RMIT University, Melbourne Presented at the 11th QS-APPLE Conference, 26 November, 2015

About this session… Global context of higher education and international education Sources and methodology of this study Emerging middle income markets: General trends and detailed country look Educational hubs / host countries Source countries of students Key challenges for both host and source markets Discussion.

Global context Tertiary education plays a pivotal role in the development of individuals and nations. Tertiary education is a central issue in policy debates as it Drives competitive advantage Addresses skills needs Addresses social objectives and empowerment Integration into global economy. Many countries are still unable to meet national demand for education, while… Other countries are seeing opportunities in hosting them.

Massification of tertiary education In 1970: 28.6 million students compared to 99.6 million in 2000, or 198.6 million in 2013. Enrolments are projected to exceed 660 million by 2040. * This would represent 10% of the world’s population aged 15-79 by 2040, compared to 4% in 2012. * * Calderon, A., “Exploring the future global flows of knowledge and mobility: implications for international education” in A Wealth of Nations, European Association for International Education. 2015.

International (tertiary) education Number of students enrolled in institutions outside their country of residence increased by 103% between 1999 and 2013. In 1999, there were 1.7 million foreign students compared to 3.5 million in 2013. By 2040, the number of foreign students enrolled could be anywhere from 9.1 million (low growth) to 12.3 million (medium growth) to 15.7 million (high growth).* * Calderon, A., “Exploring the future global flows of knowledge and mobility: implications for international education” in A Wealth of Nations, European Association for International Education. 2015.

Sources and Methodology Main data sources UNESCO: Enrolment and student mobility. UNCTAD: Trade merchandise. UN and OECD: Diaspora and population. Referenced against data from Global Innovation Index, Human Development Index, QS and World Bank.

Sources and Methodology: Middle income economies Middle Income group Defined as those with a Gross National Income per capita between $1,045 U.S. and $12,746 U.S., calculated using the World Bank Atlas Method as at January 2015. Out of 214 countries, there are 50 classified as low middle-income economies and 55 classified as upper middle –income economies.

Distribution of middle-income countries by world region

Why middle income economies? Rising importance due to the effect of globalisation, technological development and demographic change. Increasing affordability and participation in higher education. Building capacity, innovation and integration into world economy (e.g. foreign direct investment and trade). Opportunity to trade in educational services.

Interestingly, middle income economies… Have a disproportionally high number of outbound students Aspirational young population Have low inbound student mobility rate Capacity constraints Quality of education (and number in QS top 400).

Middle income as host countries Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics

Inbound mobility rate by income group

Middle income as source countries… In 2013, 61 out of every 100 outbound international student was from one of the 101 middle income countries, compared to 33 out of every 100 in high income countries.

Outbound mobility rate by income group

Which countries, which markets - 1 Our analysis identified 43 middle income countries with potential for either source or host country activity. Interestingly, there are a number of countries that have high volume of both outbound and inbound student mobility. Some of the developed countries (e.g. USA, Germany and France) are both host and source of international students.

Which countries, which markets - 2 Some countries are targeting recruitment of students from neighbouring countries, diaspora and migrant population. Recruitment of students is not necessarily confined to tertiary education. It is sometimes linked to skilled labour mobility, attraction of talent, and to research linkages. Varying degrees of international strategy development and deployment. Target setting is rather optimistic or highly aspirational at best rather than achievable. Truth is very few countries can gain traction in 5-10 years.

Which middle income countries as hosts This is a group of countries that have grown in numbers over the years – albeit limitation in data In excess of 40,000 enrolments Upper middle income: China, Malaysia and Turkey Lower middle income: Ukraine, Egypt and South Africa.

Are these the emerging hosts middle income countries? Countries that are emerging with varying degree of attractiveness. For some countries, inbound is a small proportion of total tertiary enrolment. Some of these countries ability to succeed will be underpin by the social, political and economic environment. Countries such as Botswana, Mauritius and Sri Lanka are aiming at being hubs but there is limited data about them.

Which middle income countries as source China and India are by far the major source countries of international students. Beyond these countries, very few countries send more than 50,000 students p.a. Six rapid risers countries shifted from less than 10,000 p.a. to more than 20,000 p.a. Nb: Vietnam appears in both graphs

Which middle income countries as source and volume These 15 countries have volume (greater than 20,000 and below 50,000) and are likely to remain attractive for outbound mobility. Some of these countries may begin to plateau as they build domestic institutional capability and meet domestic demand. Turkey, Morocco and Algeria were excluded as these have declined in outbound student population.

Are these the emerging source middle income countries? Over time, these 13 countries have considerably increased number of outbound students. Countries that exceed 10,000 outbound students are ‘premium’ markets in that there is volume and are attractive for long term institutional strategy development.

Key challenges – host countries There is a growing number of countries that are setting unrealistic or unachievable targets. A target of 100,000 inbound students over 10 years needs to be re- calibrated. Some countries need to reform education systems that are not integrated and operate in isolation. Mismatch between quality, transparency, linkages to employment. This unevenness hinder the ‘global’ view of education. Expectations that students from all corners of the world will come are not feasible. Instead of global mobility focus on regional mobility as an initial step. Possibility of permanent migration is an influencing factor in choosing where to study – also linked to labour market prospects. * Europeans don’t travel far away! The Americans go to developed countries.

Key challenges – source countries There is a tendency for outbound students to concentrate in key host countries. In part, this is influenced by historical (‘colonial influence’), trade and social mobility ties. Regionalism is also a key driver for students deciding where to study. Aside from affordability and reputation from an education abroad, political and regulatory environment seem to play a role in choosing to study. Increased participation rates and improved living standards have encouraged students to consider education abroad. As some countries improve domestic capabilities (e.g. Malaysia, Thailand and Colombia), number of outbound students are to flatten in years to come.

Future directions - 1 Student mobility from middle-income economies is likely to grow further. More students are likely to study across intra-regions rather than inter-regions. Striking a balance to ensure domestic needs are not compromised by too many outbound students. Geopolitical considerations for both outbound and inbound mobility. Will security issues change the ‘ball game’? Need to improve not just education but ‘surrounding infrastructure’ – e.g. facilities and amenities; city liveability.

Future directions - 2 Improved quality of education is likely to boost inbound mobility prospects for middle income economies, although noting capacity constraints in some cases. Role of diaspora populations (including as conduits and source themselves)and trade preferences matter to international education. In particular, these are likely to be key growth drivers for middle income economies. Potential for free trade agreements / multilaterals to include explicit student mobility provision. A comprehensive international view by countries (including higher education mobility, foreign direct investment and trade.

Research in progress Investigate link between student mobility and trade. Investigate importance and impact of diaspora and student mobility.

Sources and methodology: Dimensions under consideration