Wildfire getting what you pay for Prof. Michael Mann Dept. Geography George Washington U michaelmann.i234.me /wordpress Reframe discussion perfect conditions for wildfire exist, and will become more common with climate change Not about plants (fuels) or climate Economic geography how 50 years economic incentives reshaped ecosystems human communities that live in and around them

In California 85+% of wildfires are cause by humans Rim Fire Ignition: Illegal Campfire Burned: 257,314 acres 2013

In a bad fire year California spends $1 billion on wildfire suppression Main point: This has bought us nothing other than greater risks Rim Fire Cost: $127.4 million Burned: 112 buildings 2013

California Acres Burned A scary picture? If climate continues to warm and dry, area burned will continue to grow until fuels exhausted Recent warmer drier conditions have made readily available fuels more ignition prone If climate continues on this trend, we will see a steady increase in the area burned until fuels are exhausted or ecosystems shift.

Some Historical Context Low intensity wildfire was a natural component of California’s ecosystem, and shaped its unique plant populations Current burned area is about 6% of precolonial levels Before 1800 total annual area burned in California approximately 6 million acres 6% of the pre-colonial area Supression of fire has changed many ecosystems in the western and southeastern USA

Evidence from landscapes Bear Creek Station Sierra Nevada 1915

Bear Creek Station Sierra Nevada Evidence from landscapes Bear Creek Station Sierra Nevada 2002

FIRE TEMPORARILY REMOVED Evidence from landscapes FIRE TEMPORARILY REMOVED +4x FUEL LOAD FIRE TEMPORARILY REMOVED +4x FUEL LOAD

We can’t pay to stop wildfire anymore Suppression Costs Subsidy Acres Burned https://www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/fireInfo_documents/SuppCosts.pdf

Subsidize things you want more of What has fire suppression bought us? Subsidies have: Increased the number & size of wildfires Encouraged short-sighted local development D Price Supply (S) S + Subsidy Demand Directly increased Q fuels, and successful ignitions 40% of new housing development in high risk areas Humans are responsible for 100% of the risks they face if people don’t live there, there are no risks & we don’t have to put out the fire Therefore, increased the cost and risks associated with wildfire More Quantity (Fuels and Houses)

LET’S PLAY A GAME!

You Buy a home near Lake Tahoe Game Scenario & saving for child’s education

Game Scenario Your Neighbor A typical single guy

Rolls of 4 or less = Fire Ignites! Ignition Roll Outcome depend on random chance Rolls of 4 or less = Fire Ignites!

If you had an ignition Roll for Damages

Rolls of 3 or less = Home Burns (only roll if you had a ignition) Damages Roll Outcome depend on random chance Rolls of 3 or less = Home Burns (only roll if you had a ignition)

If you home is on fire, hold up your red card! Call for help! Outcome depend on random chance If you home is on fire, hold up your red card!

Let’s try – Test Round 1 2 3

Round ONE!

Ignition Roll 1 Your neighbor get out his flame throwing lawn mower, and shoots guns at rocks

If ignited, the fire rapidly approaches your home. Wildfire! If ignited, the fire rapidly approaches your home.

Fire fighters mobilize Damages Roll 2 Fire fighters mobilize and attempt to suppress the fire.

Unfortunately some percentage of homes couldn’t be saved. Call for help! 3 Unfortunately some percentage of homes couldn’t be saved. Tragic!

Are you in a high or low risk area? Look around. Are you in a high or low risk area?

Help comes! Good news, a state of emergency is called! FEMA covers 75% of the states costs. Home owners are able to rebuild at no cost.

Stand up if you are willing to move tables (cost = $1)

Moving Tables? 2 1 5 4 3 ! Cough up $1 Stand up & move tables!

Round TWO!

Your neighbor hosts an unruly Boy Scout camp out Ignition Roll 1 Your neighbor hosts an unruly Boy Scout camp out

We live in a low risk area, so we aren’t effected! Wildfire! Not again! We have rebuilt before. We are resilient! We live in a low risk area, so we aren’t effected!

Again fire fighters courageously mobilize Damages Roll 2 Again fire fighters courageously mobilize and attempt to suppress the fire.

Call for help! 3 More houses burn Tragic… again!

Bad news Help comes! FEMA only covers 25% of the cost, and insurance companies no longer cover high risk areas.

Are you high or low risk? High Risk Low Risk 1) People in high risk area pay $5 to rebuild. 2) People in low risk areas owe $2 to cover state costs.

$ $ $ Tally up how much you owe so far, and feel free to PayPal me!

Stand up if you are willing to move tables (cost = $1)

Moving Tables? 2 1 5 4 3 ! Stand up & Cough up $1

Let’s Reflect Are wildfire risks driven by humans or by climate? Can we control the wildfire risks humans face with climate change? National flood insurance program 1% household account for 30% of payout b/c repetitive claims. Do incentives matter? Share your thoughts @ http://tinyurl.com/WildfireDiscussion

The Take Away Message Despite this Why? Infrastructure Damages / Year Wildfire Damages Forecast My models suggest exponential growth in damages $4x108 (due to exurban development in the wildland urban interface) Despite this We subside the things that make us vulnerable $2x108 40% of homes in California are built in high risk areas Why? We subside the things that make us more vulnerable 1975 2000 2025 2050

Thanks! With any luck, the game worked, and we started a discussion! Prof. Michael Mann michaelmann.i234.me/wordpress Share your thoughts @ http://tinyurl.com/WildfireDiscussion

Similar to flood insurance? 30% of all Federal flood insurance payments go to 1% of household who experience repetitive losses (King, 2005: CRS Report for Congress)