6th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change 9-11 October 2013, Athens (Hellas) PROJECT: Knowledge Transfer and Research Needs for Preparing Mitigation / Adaptation Policy Portfolios (Contract No. 265182) Development and assessment of Mitigation/ Adaptation Climate Change policy portfolios for Armenia Dr. Vahan Sargsyan Energy Strategy Center of Scientific Research Institute of Energy

Content Introduction Climate change policy mixtures Future opportunities

Introduction

Scientific Research Institute of Energy Energy Strategy Center Scientific Research Institute of Energy (SRIE) as an independent organization has been established in 1961 In 1998 under the TACIS support the Energy Strategy Center (ESC) has been established as the branch of SRIE ESC assists the RA Government in the field of: Energy sector strategy and policy development, Energy efficiency, Energy saving implementation and Renewable energy development issues, Energy balance elaboration, National Communications on Climate Change (Energy part) preparation, etc.

PROMITHEAS–4 Conference: “Development and assessment of Mitigation and Adaptation Climate Change policy portfolios for Armenia” Representatives from: Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources of RA EU Delegation Ambassador of Greece in Armenia NKUA-KEPA UNFCCC National Focal Point UNDP Climate Change Program USAID Asian Development Bank Alliance to Save Energy UNDP-GEF Armenia R2E2 Fund …and other “Oval” Hall Golden Tulip Yerevan Hotel Yerevan, Armenia 23rd of May 2013

Intorduction Team composition: Name Position Responsibility Dr. Vahan Sargsyan Director of Energy Strategy Center  Project Manager Dr. Eduard Karapoghosyan Scientific Researcher Examination of obtained results and drafting summaries Ms. Karine Sargsyan Leading Engineer LEAP, AMS modeling & runs, draft report preparation Mr. Hrant Gnuni Junior Researcher Preliminary analysis of information Mr. Levon Harutyunyan Engineer Data collection Mr. Harutyun Grigoryan Engineer-Translator Report & references translation

Climate Change Policy Mixtures

Climate Change Policy Mixtures Data Collection: Armenia RES Roadmap (2011) National Energy Efficiency Action Plan 2010 (2010) Action Plan for the Ministry of Energy of the Republic of Armenia Stipulated by the Provisions of the National Security Strategies of the Republic of Armenia (2007) Overview, Implementation of the Kyoto Protocol’s Clean Development Mechanism in Armenia (EBRD, 2009) Sustainable Energy Sector Development Strategy of Armenia (2005)

Climate Change Policy Mixtures Base Parameters for all Scenarios: Base Year: 2010 Historical Period: 2000-2010 Planning Period: 2010-2050

Climate Change Policy Mixtures Developing BAU – Key Assumptions: Demographics: UN projections for Armenian population Economy: GDP Average Annual Growth – 4.5% Climate Statistics: Annual Change of Precipitation: -0.8% Annual Increase of Temperature: 1 % Surface Waters Decrease: -0.53% Land Management – 1530 km2 of arable land during whole planning period

Climate Change Policy Mixtures Developing BAU – Energy Demand: Households: Natural Gas – from 471 to 2410 million m3 Electricity – up to 8.8 billion kWh Heat – up to 244 billion kcal Agriculture Electricity – 4%/year (up to 604 million kWh) Industry Natural Gas – up to 1.9 million m3 Electricity – 5 billion kWh Heat – 288 billion kcal in 2050 Transport Energy Demand – 4% annually Non Specified Average Annual Growth – 2%

Climate Change Policy Mixtures Developing OPT – Key Assumptions: Demographics: UN projections for Armenian population Economy: GDP Average Annual Growth – 4.5% Climate Statistics: Annual Change of Precipitation: -0.26% Annual Increase of Temperature: 1.02 % Surface Waters Decrease: -0.26% Land Management – 1530 km2 of arable land during whole planning period

Climate Change Policy Mixtures Developing OPT – Energy Demand: Households: Natural Gas – up to 2302 million m3 Electricity – up to 7.8 billion kWh Heat – up to 233 billion kcal Agriculture Electricity – 3.9%/year (up to 588 million kWh) Industry Natural Gas – up to 1.1 million m3 Electricity – 4.6 billion kWh Heat – 264 billion kcal in 2050 Transport Energy Demand – 5% annually Non Specified Average Annual Growth – 2.2%

Climate Change Policy Mixtures Developing PES – Key Assumptions: Demographics: UN projections for Armenian population Economy: GDP Average Annual Growth – 4.5% Climate Statistics: Annual Change of Precipitation: -1.11% Annual Increase of Temperature: 1.20 % Surface Waters Decrease: -1.11% Land Management – 1530 km2 of arable land during whole planning period

Climate Change Policy Mixtures Developing PES – Energy Demand: Households: Natural Gas – up to 2354 million m3 Electricity – up to 8.3 billion kWh Heat – up to 238 billion kcal Agriculture Electricity – 3.96%/year (up to 596 million kWh) Industry Natural Gas – up to 1.2 million m3 Electricity – 4.8 billion kWh Heat – 276 billion kcal in 2050 Transport Energy Demand – 1.52% annually Non Specified Average Annual Growth – 1.8%

Climate Change Policy Mixtures LEAP Results: Transformation, All Fuels

Climate Change Policy Mixtures LEAP Results: One Hundred Year Global Warming Potential (All Fuels, All GHGs), kton CO2eqv

Climate Change Policy Mixtures Each Scenario assessed by Multi-Criteria Method AMS

Climate Change Policy Mixtures Best policy mixture: policy portfolio in OPT is the best in terms of overall performance. The policy portfolio in BAU is the worst one.

Future Opportunities

Future Opportunities Needs & Gaps: Demography: no national long-term (up to 2050) forecasts GDP: no national long-term GDP and its distribution forecasts Water use by sectors: only regional forecast is available Energy Demand: simplified forecast Energy transformation: lack of future technology specifications Comprehensive studies related to long-term (50-100 years) projections of demographic situation, economic development (GDP), energy demand, energy/water use, new technologies etc. are strongly required

Future Opportunities Future cooperation: Information and data exchange Consultancies Study-tours for students & young specialists Training in different areas of energy and climate issues Providing of Expertise Etc.

Thank You! Energy Strategy Center of Scientific Research Institute of Energy 5/1 Myasnikyan avenue, 0025 Yerevan, Armenia Phone/Fax: +374-10 559-664 E-mail: piuesc@energinst.am Vahan.sargsyan@energinst.am