An Adaptation Portfolio Approach to Managing Climate Risk Greg Aplet and Pete McKinley – The Wilderness Society John Gallo – Conservation Biology Institute

Allocating a Climate Portfolio Part I: The Conceptual Basis What is the goal of climate adaptation? What are the strategies? How should we apply these strategies? Part II: A Spatial Decision Support System

What makes a wildland wild? From Section 2(c) of the Wilderness Act: A wilderness…is hereby recognized as an area where the earth and its community of life are untrammeled by man, where man himself is a visitor who does not remain. An area of wilderness is further defined to mean in the Act an area of undeveloped Federal land retaining its primeval character and influence, without permanent improvements or human habitation, which is protected and managed so as to preserve its natural conditions and which…generally appears to have been affected primarily by the forces of nature…

Wildland Qualities Earth and its community of life Primeval character Natural conditions Untrammeled by man Primeval influence Affected primarily by the forces of nature

(Wholeness or “historical fidelity”) Wildland Qualities Earth and its community of life Primeval character Natural conditions = Naturalness (Wholeness or “historical fidelity”) Untrammeled by man Primeval influence Affected primarily by the forces of nature

Wildland Qualities = Naturalness = Freedom from human control Earth and its community of life Primeval character Natural conditions = Naturalness (Wholeness or “historical fidelity”) Untrammeled by man Primeval influence Affected primarily by the forces of nature = Freedom from human control

“The Paradox of the Primeval” The Dilemma of Wilderness Management Untrammeled Natural Cole, D.N. 1996. Ecological manipulation in wilderness: an emerging management dilemma. International Journal of Wilderness 2(1):15-19

Wildness Dimensions of Wildness Freedom from Control Naturalness C& O Canal Chesapeake Bay Arctic Refuge “Self-willed” Vacant Lot Freedom from Control Wildness Everglades Controlled Pine Plantation Curtis Prairie Downtown Artificial Pristine Naturalness

“Directions” of Management “Self-willed” Drift Recovery Freedom from Control Transformation Restoration Controlled Novel Pristine Ecological Condition

Global Change: The End of Recovery? Pressure of Global Change: Warming Invasives Fragmentation Accept Change “Self-willed” Recovery Freedom from Control Guide Change Resist Change Controlled Pristine Novel Ecological Condition

Choices in the face of climate change Accept change: Observation only Resist change: Restoration Guide change: Innovation and experimentation

Certain Uncertainty “We might feel confident of broad-scale future environmental changes (such as global mean temperature increases), but we cannot routinely predict even the direction of change at local and regional scales (such as increasing or decreasing precipitation).” Millar et al. (2007)

What to do? “Managing in the face of uncertainty will require a portfolio of approaches, including short-term and long-term strategies, that focus on enhancing ecosystem resistance and resilience…as climates and environments continue to shift.” Millar et al. (2007) “A portfolio of adaptation and mitigation measures can diminish the risks associated with climate change.” IPCC Adaptation Report

An Experimental Landscape Approach Observation only in some places (both treatment and control) Restoration in some places (“Keeping all the parts”) Innovation in some places (novel conservation) Integrated across the landscape in a cohesive experiment

OTHER SLIDES FOLLOW, but were not shown at the American Association of Geographers Meeting due to the subsequent presentation by John Gallo that touched on the following material.

Principles of Allocation Representation Connectivity across gradients Configuration

An illustration

Real Life Example: Hawaiian Ahupua’a “In different places, in different chunks, we can manage nature for different ends—for historical restoration, for species preservation, for self-willed wildness, for ecosystem services, for food and fiber and fish and flame trees and frogs.” – Emma Marris, Rambunctious Garden

A Decision Support System for Spatial Allocation

Zone Suitability

Final Map @johnagallo john.gallo@consbio.org Example Three Zone Allocation 1 (Observation Zone) 2 (Restoration Zone) 3 (Innovation Zone) Southern Sierra Nevada Study Area @johnagallo john.gallo@consbio.org