You’re fired! The Strategic Defence and Security Review Steve Jary November 2010 National Secretary

Financial background Budgetary legacy CSR settlement What it means in practice inflation etc ACR baseline and targets

National Security Strategy Four priorities International terrorism Cyber attack International military crises Major accidents or natural hazards “… tough choices to bring the defence budget back into balance. Those choices are informed by the risks, analysis and prioritisation set out in this National Security Strategy” “A risk that is both high impact and high likelihood is more significant than one that is low impact and low likelihood”

SDSR highlights (1) Waffle and platitudes – vague and ill-defined New defence planning assumptions: one enduring ‘stabilisation’ operation (6,500); and one enduring complex intervention (2,000); and one non-enduring simple intervention (1,000); or three non-enduring operations; or with sufficient warning(!), short large single commitment (30,000)

SDSR highlights (2) Future force elements: Deployed force High readiness force Lower readiness force Aim to deliver this “for the 2020s” Implications for command structures? In essence: maintain virtually all capabilities, but reduced volume

SDSR highlights (3) 2.B.13 “MOD civil servants play a critical role in defence. They support Ministers in determining policy and strategy; in managing the resources allocated by Parliament; and in maintaining our key cross-government and international relationships. They also perform a range of vital roles in front line support to operations, from manning the Royal Fleet Auxiliary and providing fire safety, to scientific knowledge, contracts expertise, logistics support, intelligence capabilities and policy advice.”

SDSR highlights (4) £4.3 billion non-front line savings: Reductions in civilian workforce and non-front line service personnel Rationalisation of estate Asset sales, inc DSG and Marchwood Efficiencies and improvements in military training Contract renegotiations £300 million pa from service and civilian allowances Reduced spend on commodities Reduced spend on media and comm’s “this represents a 24% reduction in non-frontline roles and organisations such as headquarters, support roles and organisations such as DE&S, saving at least £2 billion per year by 2014/15”

SDSR finance

SDSR people

SDSR critique Driven by finance, not strategy Reverse-engineered Civilian cut is political Armed forces ‘protected’ (10% cut) Civilians ‘sacrificed’ (30% cut) No risk assessment, no plan

Issues for Prospect Political commitment to headcount reductions – can we make a difference and how? Hands-clean or hands-dirty? VERS – CSCS terms, selection, etc MSS Agreement – units and selection No enforced redundancy Mobility - No enforced relocation Privatisation - VfM assessments