Potential GDP, resource utilisation and monetary policy Grand Hotel, Saltsjöbaden 7 October 2010 First Deputy Governor of the Riksbank Svante Öberg.

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Potential GDP, resource utilisation and monetary policy Grand Hotel, Saltsjöbaden 7 October 2010 First Deputy Governor of the Riksbank Svante Öberg

Figure 1. GDP gaps in September 2010 and in real time Per cent Source: The Riksbank

Figure 2. Historical GDP trends Index 2000=100 Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 3. GDP, hours worked and productivity Index 2007 Q4 =100 Note: Broken lines denote the Riksbank’s forecasts in MPU September 2008. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 4. The GDP gap according to the Riksbank, the National Institute of Economic Research and the Ministry of Finance Per cent The Riksbank, September 2010 The National Institute of Economic Research, September 2010 The Ministry of Finance, August 2010

Figure 5. The GDP gap according to the Riksbank, the OECD, the IMF and the European Commission Per cent The Riksbank, September 2010 The European Commission, May 2010 The OECD, May 2010 The IMF, April 2010

Figure 6. Labour market gaps Percentage deviation from the HP-trend and from the average 2000-2007, seasonally-adjusted data Hours HP gap (left scale) Employment HP gap (left scale) Employment (left scale) Unemployment (right scale) Note. Broken lines denote the Riksbank’s forecast in MPU September 2010. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 7. Indicators for the business sector Deviation from the average, percentage points Demand Number employed Labour shortage Sales prices Companies’ inflation expectations 12 months ahead Confidence indicator Note. Companies’ inflation expectations 12 months ahead are denoted in tenths of a percentage point. Source: National Institute of Economic Research

Figure 8. Shortage of labour in the business sector and capacity utilisation in the manufacturing industry Deviation from average 1996-2007 Capacity utilisation Shortage of labour in the business sector Source: National Institute of Economic Research

Figure 9. Shortage of labour in the business sector and unemployment Deviations from the average 2000-2007 Labour shortage Unemployment Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden

Figure 10. The GDP gap and the RU indicator Percentage deviation from HP trend and number of standard deviations from the average HP gap GDP RU indicator Note. Broken line denotes the Riksbank’s forecast MPU September 2010 Source: The Riksbank

Figure 11. Industrial production, capacity utilisation and potential industrial production Per cent Logarithmic trend 1996-2007 (industrial production) * Calculated as industrial production x (average capacity utilisation 1996-2007/capacity utilisation). Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden

Figure 12. The RU indicator and HICP inflation excluding energy Per cent, deviation from average 1997-2007 HICP RU indicator Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 13. CPI and CPIF inflation Annual percentage change Note. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate. The broken lines denote the Riksbank’s forecasts in MPU September 2010. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 14. Repo rate Per cent, daily data and quarterly averages Note. Broken line denotes the Riksbank’s forecast in MPU September 2010. Source: The Riksbank