Snowfall Runoff Forecasting in San Juan County, UT

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Presentation transcript:

Snowfall Runoff Forecasting in San Juan County, UT Dane Hurst GIS in Water Resources Utah State University Fall 2014

Project Objective Develop a model to forecast total seasonal snowmelt runoff for two major reservoirs downstream of the Abajo Mountain range in San Juan County, UT

www.wikipedia.com

Project Geography Watershed Name Area (km2) Area (mi2) Recapture Creek 143 55.1 South Creek 26.8 10.4 Recapture Creek @ Gauge 11.5 4.4 Indian Creek 6.6 2.6

Available Datasets SNOTEL USGS stream gauges SNODAS 2 Sites Daily snow water equivalent (SWE) USGS stream gauges 2 sites Daily average flow rate SNODAS Modeled daily SWE over continental United States www.sjrnews.com

End User Process SNOTEL SWE Reading Correlation to SNODAS SWE value at the site Average accumulated SWE over watershed(s) Correlation to stream flow Predicted available runoff Accounts for errors in modeled data Accounts for spatial variation of snowfall Accounts for losses (infiltration, evaporation etc.)

Model Development Process Define project Define Goals Consider constraints Develop process plan Gather Data Stream flow SNODAS SNOTEL Process Data Find seasonal cumulative snowfall using SNODAS Find daily SNODAS value at SNOTEL sites Find total seasonal stream flow volume Analyze Data Correlate local SNOTEL SWE to local SNODAS SWE Correlate SNODAS SWE volume to stream flow volume Correlate local SNOTEL SWE to stream flow volume Present Data Simple Excel workbook to perform calculations

Sample Model Development: 2009 Camp Jackson and Recapture Creek (South side) Description Value Maximum SNOTEL SWE 328 mm SNODAS SWE at Camp Jackson 290 mm (113% of SNOTEL) Average SWE in watershed 211 mm (72.9% of Camp Jackson) Area of watershed 11.51 km2 Volume available in watershed 2,748,000 m3 Total Spring runoff at gauge 129,800 m3 Runoff ratio 0.0472

Sample Model Use 2010 Camp Jackson and Recapture Creek (South side) Description Value Maximum SNOTEL SWE 422 mm Modeled volume available in watershed (422 mm)(113%)(72.9%)(11.51 km2) =3,130,393 m3 Modeled runoff (3,130,393 m3)(0.0472) =147,800 m3 Actual runoff 158,400 m3 Error -7.2% www.hikesandlakes.com

Remaining Work Calculate seasonal cumulative SWE Establish correlations Create Excel workbook to perform calculations www.sjrnews.com www.hikesandlakes.com

Future Improvements Build tool to automate process Data collection Processing/Analysis More rigorous hydrologic model ckmcdonald on panormio.com