Selection Effects and Self-Presentation: How the Double Bind Strangles Women’s Representation Chris Karpowitz Quin Monson Jessica Preece

Beyond the Double Bind? Existing literature suggests that egalitarian trends have reduced the challenges of the “femininity/competence” double bind for women in politics. We make three critiques: Existing work focuses on higher-level offices (Congress and statewide offices) and neglects entry-level contests, but selection effects may be present at earlier stages. Experimental studies focus on sex discrimination but neglect gender discrimination. Gender discrimination could vary substantially by political party (through different political culture and support for different gender roles) We used a hypothetical primary election (matched to R’s party preference) for the state legislature, to present a masculine man against a woman candidate with four possible masculine or feminine issue/qualification profiles. Existing literature says: Male & female candidates win similarly (Burrell 1994 Dolan 2014); Similar male & female politicians are judged similarly (Brooks 2013) Male & female candidates campaign on similar issues (Dolan 2005; Bystrom et al. 2004; Banwart and Winfrey 2013; Niven and Zilber 2001; Sapiro et al. 2011) Voters generally use other cues to make their decisions (Hayes 2011; Dolan 2004) Experimental studies tend to focus on an “all else equal” design, varying only the candidate’s sex. The challenge is that “all else equal” misses important gender differences in life choices that lead to differences in candidate self-presentation. Voter biases may not be against women per se; rather, they may reflect preferences for masculinity over femininity.

4 gendered profile conditions. Randomly assign women candidates to “masculine,” “feminine,” background profiles Masculine qualification + issues Feminine qualification + issues Masculine qualification (law grad) + feminine issues + mom Mom only + issues

Likeability Competence Democrats Republicans Democrats Republicans Female – Male Candidate Masculine Feminine Law Grad Mom Mom Only Republicans Democrats Competence Female – Male Candidate Masculine Feminine Law Grad Mom Mom Only

Republicans Democrats Masculine Feminine Law Grad Mom Mom Only

Very Conservative Reps All Other Republicans In other data, this pattern works among Republicans using a moral traditionalism scale as well as by supporters of different Republicans in the presidential primary (Kasich supporters look like Democrats, Trump supporters look like the “very conservative” R’s here and Cruz voters are in between) Masculine Feminine Law Grad Mom Mom Only