Figure 4 Impact on the endemic HCV seroprevalence of reducing syringe sharing amongst high and low frequency syringe sharing IDUs. Projections are shown.

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Presented by Cheri Booth, MPH MN Department of Health November 22, 2013.

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Presentation transcript:

Figure 4 Impact on the endemic HCV seroprevalence of reducing syringe sharing amongst high and low frequency syringe sharing IDUs. Projections are shown for the best-fit models of class A, B and C, and the HCV seroprevalence is the average over all IDUs who have been injecting for eight years or less. Class A, B and C models have similar characteristics except that class A and C have a larger sub-group of higher frequency syringe sharers (37% and 47% of IDUs for A and C respectively) than class B (27% of IDUs), a higher proportion of infecteds resolve infection in class A and B (41–47%) than in class C (18%), and new injectors in class B have an elevated syringe sharing rate (3.3 times higher than other IDUs) but do not in class A or C From: Modelling the impact on Hepatitis C transmission of reducing syringe sharing: London case study Int J Epidemiol. 2007;36(2):396-405. doi:10.1093/ije/dyl276 Int J Epidemiol | Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association © The Author 2007; all rights reserved.

Figure 3 Impact on endemic HCV seroprevalence of reducing syringe sharing amongst all IDUs, or IDUs who have been injecting for >1 year. Projections are shown for the best-fit models of class A, B and C, and the HCV sero-prevalence is the average over all IDUs who have been injecting for ≤8 years. Class A, B and C models have similar characteristics except that class A and C have a larger sub-group of higher frequency syringe sharers (37 and 47% of IDUs for A and C respectively) than class B (27% of IDUs), a higher proportion of infecteds resolve infection in class A and B (41–47%) than in class C (18%), and new injectors in class B have an elevated syringe sharing rate (3.3 times higher than other IDUs) but do not in class A or C From: Modelling the impact on Hepatitis C transmission of reducing syringe sharing: London case study Int J Epidemiol. 2007;36(2):396-405. doi:10.1093/ije/dyl276 Int J Epidemiol | Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association © The Author 2007; all rights reserved.

Figure 2 Projected HCV seroprevalence for different syringe sharing rates among IDUs who have been injecting for different durations. Figure 2a is for the best fit of class A, and 2b is for class B. The projections for class C are similar to class A. Class A and B models have similar characteristics except that class A has a larger sub-group of higher frequency syringe sharers (37% of IDUs) than class B (27% of IDUs) and new injectors in class B have an elevated syringe sharing rate (3.3 times higher than other IDUs) but do not in class A From: Modelling the impact on Hepatitis C transmission of reducing syringe sharing: London case study Int J Epidemiol. 2007;36(2):396-405. doi:10.1093/ije/dyl276 Int J Epidemiol | Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association © The Author 2007; all rights reserved.

Appendix 1 Flow diagram for HCV transmission model Appendix 1 Flow diagram for HCV transmission model. Arrows portray possible transformations of susceptible or infected IDUs, and the parameters next to these arrows are the rate of flow per capita between these states From: Modelling the impact on Hepatitis C transmission of reducing syringe sharing: London case study Int J Epidemiol. 2007;36(2):396-405. doi:10.1093/ije/dyl276 Int J Epidemiol | Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association © The Author 2007; all rights reserved.

Figure 1 Comparison of model fits to HCV seroprevalence data from London for 2002–03.<sup>19,</sup><sup>60</sup> The best-fit and the minimum and maximum bounds of the other 30 model fits are shown From: Modelling the impact on Hepatitis C transmission of reducing syringe sharing: London case study Int J Epidemiol. 2007;36(2):396-405. doi:10.1093/ije/dyl276 Int J Epidemiol | Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association © The Author 2007; all rights reserved.