International Associatin of Landscape Ecology World Congress, Portland July 5-10 2015 S13: The Lanscape’s Metabolism: Interweaving the Landscape Ecology, Urban studies and Industrial Ecology to Understanding Landscape Tissues in an Urban World Climate change, urban environment and landscape metabolism: simulation studies in arid climates. M. Palme, PhD Associate Professor, School of Architecture Catholic University of the North

Introduction and methodology Case of study: Antofagasta This presentation Introduction and methodology Case of study: Antofagasta IPCC estimations for Chile Test buildings Results Conclusions Climate change, urban environment and landscape metabolism: simulation studies in arid climates.

Built environment amplifies affects Climate change Climate change, urban environment and landscape metabolism: simulation studies in arid climates.

G. Bateson, Steps to an Ecology of Mind (1972) Double bind: “Communicative situation in which a person receives contradictory information” G. Bateson, Steps to an Ecology of Mind (1972) What does it mean a double bind situation for building sector? Climate change, urban environment and landscape metabolism: simulation studies in arid climates.

In cold climates global warming will reduce heating demand of buildings without increase cooling demand. In this case the effect is self-decreasing and building energy efficiency policies are consistent with global warming reduction. In arid climates and in temperate climates, heating demand will reduce but cooling demand will increase. In this case, a double bind relationship could appear: energy policies are not consistent with final objective. Climate change, urban environment and landscape metabolism: simulation studies in arid climates.

Building energy certification introduced in Chile in 2013 only considers heating demand and related primary energy consumption and generated emissions. This fact founds on observation that northern cities of the Country use natural ventilation to cool all kind of buildings. Climate change, urban environment and landscape metabolism: simulation studies in arid climates.

Questions: In arid climates, and especially in the case of Antofagasta, are buildings in a “double bind” situation? Are the energy efficiency government policies in Chile consistent with the future scenarios for the entire country? Climate change, urban environment and landscape metabolism: simulation studies in arid climates.

Three reference buildings are selected and tested Research steps: IPCC data are obtained for 2050 and 2080 considering scenarios A1FI, A2 and B1. http://www.ipcc-data.org/sres/hadcm3_download.html CIBSE morphing method is used to generate weather hourly data. Software is available online: http://www.energy.soton.ac.uk/ccworldweathergen/ (accessed on 29 May 2014). Three reference buildings are selected and tested Heating and cooling demand are compared and primary energy and emissions are estimated in each case Climate change, urban environment and landscape metabolism: simulation studies in arid climates.

Antofagasta location Climate change, urban environment and landscape metabolism: simulation studies in arid climates.

Thermal inertia due to Pacific Ocean Prevailing winds from the Sea Antofagasta climate Arid climate Thermal inertia due to Pacific Ocean Prevailing winds from the Sea Extreme incoming solar radiation Average temperature 20 °C Low day-night and seasonal temperature oscillations Climate change, urban environment and landscape metabolism: simulation studies in arid climates.

Climate change, urban environment and landscape metabolism: simulation studies in arid climates.

IPCC scenarios Climate change, urban environment and landscape metabolism: simulation studies in arid climates.

IPCC projection for Chile Climate change, urban environment and landscape metabolism: simulation studies in arid climates.

IPCC projection for Chile Climate change, urban environment and landscape metabolism: simulation studies in arid climates.

Test buildings Building’s parameters Occupancy = 30 m2/person Clo = 1 (typical all-season jacket) Met = 1 (58 W/m2, sedentary) U windows (W/m²C) = 5 U walls (W/m²C) = 1,77 Solar factor (%) = 0,85 U roof (W/m²C) = 0,6 Transparency 20% Air changes per hour = 0,5 Thermostat range = 18-26 °C Climate change, urban environment and landscape metabolism: simulation studies in arid climates.

Results average building Climate change, urban environment and landscape metabolism: simulation studies in arid climates.

Results average Climate change, urban environment and landscape metabolism: simulation studies in arid climates.

Antofagasta is possibly taken into a double bind situation: Conclusions In arid climates, and especially in the case of Antofagasta, are buildings in a “double bind” situation? Antofagasta is possibly taken into a double bind situation: Global warming is affecting the built environment and a shift between heating and cooling demand is probable. People in Antofagasta, due to economic growth of the city, will respond to hotter environment by cooling their residencies using electrical systems. Urban Heat Island effect and tall constructions in the first coast line could improve the shift between heating and cooling. Climate change, urban environment and landscape metabolism: simulation studies in arid climates.

Conclusions 2. Are the energy efficiency government policies in Chile consistent with the future scenarios for the entire country? Energy certification system proposed by the Government has to be modified to consider northern regions risks due to climate change. In many climates the same phenomenon could happen: it has to be noticed that emissions increase estimated in Antofagasta case is very high: 500% in A2 and 800% in A1FI by 2080 Climate change, urban environment and landscape metabolism: simulation studies in arid climates.

Future work The IPCC prediction shows similar conditions for the north Pacific coast, from Chile to Colombia, Trought Peru and Ecuador. In future studies, cities like Lima and Guayaquil will be analyzed with the same methodology. Climate change, urban environment and landscape metabolism: simulation studies in arid climates.

References Palme M., Isalgué A., Coch H. (2013) Avoiding the Possible Impact of Climate Change on the Built Environment: The Importance of the Building's Energy Robustness. Buildings 3(1), pp. 191-204 Palme M., Guerra J. (2013) A critical assessment and projection of urban vertical growth in Antofagasta, Chile. Sustainability 5(7), pp. 2840-2855 Belcher SE, Hacker JN, Powell DS. (2005) Constructing design weather data for future climates. Building Services Engineering Research and Technology 26 (1), pp. 49-61 Jentsch M.F., Bahaj A.S. and James P.A.B. (2008) Climate change future proofing of buildings – Generation and assessment of building simulation weather files. Energy and Buildings 40 (12), pp. 2148-2168 Chilean Government (2013) Adaptation to climate change Report. http://www.mma.gob.cl/1304/articles-55412_PlanNacionalAdaptacionCClimatico.pdf Climate change, urban environment and landscape metabolism: simulation studies in arid climates.

Materials Engineer, PhD in Architecture School of Architecture UCN Thank You Massimo Palme Materials Engineer, PhD in Architecture School of Architecture UCN mpalme@ucn.cl Climate change, urban environment and landscape metabolism: simulation studies in arid climates.