Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile M. Palme, PhD Assistant Professor, School of Architecture Catholic University of the North

Introduction and methodology Case of study: Antofagasta This presentation Introduction and methodology Case of study: Antofagasta IPCC estimations for Chile Test building Results Conclusions Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

Built environment amplifies affects Climate change

G. Bateson, Steps to an Ecology of Mind (1972) Double bind: “Communicative situation in which a person receives contradictory information” G. Bateson, Steps to an Ecology of Mind (1972) What does it mean a double bind situation for building sector? Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

In cold climates global warming will reduce heating demand of buildings without increase cooling demand. In this case the effect is self-decreasing and building energy efficiency policies are consistent with global warming reduction. In arid climates and in temperate climates, heating demand will reduce but cooling demand will increase. In this case, a double bind relationship could appear: energy policies are not consistent with final objective. Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

Central idea of this work is that thermal heating demand that buildings have nowadays, in many climates will change to cooling demand under effect of global heating and other driving forces (extreme urbanization and heat island effect for example). A similar change has to be taken in to account if we are planning to introduce building energy certification, like in the case of Chile. Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

Building energy certification introduced in Chile in 2013 only considers heating demand and related primary energy consumption and generated emissions. This fact founds on observation that northern cities of the Country use natural ventilation to cool all kind of buildings. Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

Questions: In arid climates, and especially in the case of Antofagasta, are buildings in a “double bind” situation? Are the energy efficiency government policies in Chile consistent with the future scenarios for all the country? Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

Methodology: This research work uses IPCC simulation data for future scenarios (HadCM3) and Climate Change Weather World File Generator software developed by CIBSE researchers in UK to estimate future thermal demand of buildings in arid regions. However, conceptual result could be applied to other climate situations, like Mediterranean climates. Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

A reference building is selected and tested Research steps: IPCC data are obtained for 2050 and 2080 considering scenarios A1F, A2 and B1. http://www.ipcc-data.org/sres/hadcm3_download.html CIBSE morphing method is used to generate weather hourly data. Software is available online: http://www.energy.soton.ac.uk/ccworldweathergen/ (accessed on 29 May 2014). A reference building is selected and tested Heating and cooling demand are compared and primary energy and emissions are estimated in each case Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

Antofagasta location Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

Thermal inertia due to Pacific Ocean Prevailing winds from the Sea Antofagasta climate Arid climate Thermal inertia due to Pacific Ocean Prevailing winds from the Sea Extreme incoming solar radiation Average temperature 20 °C Low day-night and seasonal temperature oscillations Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

Antofagasta climate Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

Antofagasta climate Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

IPCC scenarios Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

IPCC projection for Chile Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

IPCC projection for Chile Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

Morphing strategy (temperatures) Stretch Shift Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

Test building Building’s parameters Occupancy = 4 people Clo = 1 (typical all-season jacket) Met = 1 (58 W, sedentary activity) U windows (W/m²C) = 5 U walls (W/m²C) = 3 Solar factor (%) = 0,85 U roof (W/m²C) = 0,8 Dim = 7 x 4,2 x 2,4 m Air changes per hour = 0,5 Thermostat range = 18-26 °C Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

Antofagasta, 2014 Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

Antofagasta, 2050, A2 scenario Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

Antofagasta, 2080, A2 scenario Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

Primary energy consumption (kWh/m2 year) Results A2 scenario   Thermal demand (kWh/m2 year) Primary energy consumption (kWh/m2 year) CO2 emissions (kg/m2 year) heating cooling total 2013 18.4 0.0 20.9 4.5 2050 A2 1.5 13.9 15.4 1.7 15.3 17.0 0.4 5.0 5.4 2080 A2 39.2 43.2 14.1 Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

Primary energy consumption (kWh/m2 year) Results A1FI scenario   Thermal demand (kWh/m2 year) Primary energy consumption (kWh/m2 year) CO2 emissions (kg/m2 year) heating cooling total 2013 18.4 0.0 20.9 4.5 2050 A1FI 0.5 24.1 24.6 0.6 26.5 27.1 0.1 7.9 8.0 2080 A1FI 53.2 58.5 17.4 Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

Primary energy consumption (kWh/m2 year) Results B1 scenario   Thermal demand (kWh/m2 year) Primary energy consumption (kWh/m2 year) CO2 emissions (kg/m2 year) heating cooling total 2013 18.4 0.0 20.9 4.5 2050 B1 2.3 9.0 11.3 2.6 9.9 12.5 0.5 2.9 3.4 2080 B1 1.8 17.3 19.1 2.0 19.0 21.0 0.4 5.6 6.0 Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

Results comparison Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

Antofagasta is possibly taken into a double bind situation: Conclusions In arid climates, and especially in the case of Antofagasta, are buildings in a “double bind” situation? Antofagasta is possibly taken into a double bind situation: Global warming is affecting the built environment and a shift between heating and cooling demand is probable. People in Antofagasta, due to economic growth of the city, will respond to hotter environment by cooling their residencies using electrical systems. Urban Heat Island effect and tall constructions in the first coast line could improve the shift between heating and cooling. Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

Conclusions 2. Are the energy efficiency government policies in Chile consistent with the future scenarios for all the country? Energy certification system proposed by the Government has to be modified to consider northern regions risks due to climate change. In many climates the same phenomenon could happen: it has to be notice that emissions increase estimated in Antofagasta case is very high: 300% in A2 and 400% in A1FI by 2080 Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

References Palme M., Isalgué A., Coch H. (2013) Avoiding the Possible Impact of Climate Change on the Built Environment: The Importance of the Building's Energy Robustness. Buildings 3(1), pp. 191-204 Palme M., Guerra J. (2013) A critical assessment and projection of urban vertical growth in Antofagasta, Chile. Sustainability 5(7), pp. 2840-2855 Belcher SE, Hacker JN, Powell DS. (2005) Constructing design weather data for future climates. Building Services Engineering Research and Technology 26 (1), pp. 49-61 Jentsch M.F., Bahaj A.S. and James P.A.B. (2008) Climate change future proofing of buildings – Generation and assessment of building simulation weather files. Energy and Buildings 40 (12), pp. 2148-2168 Chilean Government (2013) Adaptation to climate change Report. http://www.mma.gob.cl/1304/articles-55412_PlanNacionalAdaptacionCClimatico.pdf Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile

Materials Engineer, PhD in Architecture School of Architecture UCN Thank You Massimo Palme Materials Engineer, PhD in Architecture School of Architecture UCN mpalme@ucn.cl Thermal demand and related CO₂ emissions of buildings under climate change conditions in arid climates: A simulation study in Antofagasta, Chile