Researchers Eira Tansey Digital Archivist, Records Manager

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Presentation transcript:

Fonds Farewell: Mapping American Archival Vulnerabilities to Climate Change

Researchers Eira Tansey Digital Archivist, Records Manager University of Cincinnati Ben Goldman Digital Records Archivist, Kalin Librarian for Technological Innovations Penn State University Nathan Piekielek Geospatial Services Librarian Penn State University

Problem Statement Which American archival repositories are most vulnerable to the effects of climate change in the coming decades?

NOAA sea level rise data: Methodology Intersect archive locations with climate change models in ArcGIS. ArchiveGrid Repository data (CONUS) NOAA sea level rise data: 1’, 3’, 6’

1231 institutions 46 institutions Mapped using ArcGIS 46 institutions Located in coastal areas mapped for sea-level rise

Sea Level Rise, 1 ft Scenario 3 institutions with inundation risk 1 institution = high confidence 2 institutions = low confidence

Sea Level Rise, 3 ft Scenario 8 institutions with inundation risk 2 institutions = high confidence 6 institutions = low confidence

Sea Level Rise, 6 ft Scenario 22 institutions with inundation risk 10 institutions = high confidence 12 institutions = low confidence

What the world’s top climate scientists say... The vertical bars: Dark blue = RCP 2.6 Light blue = RCP 4.5 Orange = RCP 6.0 Red = RCP 8.5 The spread is 5-95% of likely confidence of SLR for 2100. The plus sign in the middle is the mean. The x-axis lines: Yellow = tidal gauges (since 1970) Purple = satellite record (since 1993) Projected range from RCP4.5 scenario for 2006-2100 = gray shade Colored lines in shade = 3 climate models 2010 1970-2100 1 meter = 3.2 feet 0.6 meter = 1.9 feet Sea-level rise scenarios from IPCC 5th assessment report, 2013 (Working Group 1, Figure 13.23). RCP = representative concentration pathways, aka anticipated scenarios of future emissions trajectories

Discussion Quality of archival repository data Not nearly comprehensive Facility design Getting to know climate data Areas of risk for sea-level rise Primary - Atlantic Coast Secondary - Gulf Coast Beyond sea-level rise Storm surge - think of Hurricane Sandy, Katrina… and how would this get worse on top of increasing sea-level rise?

Further Research Refinement of archival repository data Refinement of initial SLR/inundation scenarios Add storm surge data from National Hurricane Center Add 500 year flood plain data from FEMA Examine impacts of temperature and precipitation Regionally-focused case studies Non-U.S. repositories Align with local/regional adaptation planning efforts

Thanks! Look for us at: PASIG, NYC, October 2016 AMIA, Pittsburgh, November 2016 Libraries and Archives in the Anthropocene Colloquium, May 2017 (fingers crossed)