A Coming Crisis in Teaching? Teacher Supply, Demand, and Shortages in the U.S. 9/15/16

California Headlines: Fall 2015

National Headlines, 2016 As the new school year begins, there has been lots of press on teacher shortages across the Nation. For example, one Florida article shared that the Tampa bay area is short over a 1,000 teachers. Shortages are not an issue because they are a headache for the HR dept., but rather because they impact students. When schools can’t find a fully qualified teacher, districts can cancel courses, increase pupil teacher ratios, or hire underprepared or substitute teachers. For example in Utah, as a response to shortages, the state has recently allowed schools to hire teachers with no training what so ever.

California Teacher Shortages Are Getting Worse, 2016

Teacher Preparation Enrollments Down Nationally 35% One reason schools are struggling to find teachers is there has been a decline in individuals entering the pipeline. In the last 5 years teacher education enrollments have declined by a third, which means there are close to two-hundred and forty thousand fewer individuals on their way into teaching in 2014 as compared to 2009. The declining supply—driven in part by layoffs—was not of huge concern, during the recession when schools were not hiring. But…, the labor market has shifted.

Teacher Preparation Enrollments Down Even More in California 76%

California’s Teacher Shortage

Underprepared Teachers Are on the Rise 63%

National Supply and Demand Imbalance 100,000 Supply This graph shows projected national teacher demand in black and estimated supply in blue. As you can see the black line, demand, steeply rises starting in 2013, as districts began to reinstate classes and programs that were reduced or eliminated during the recession. As we saw in the previous slide, these hiring increases come at a time teacher supply is declining. These opposing trends have left our classrooms short around 60,000 teachers this past year. If current trends continue, the shortage could be as large as100,000 teachers by 2018. Teacher shortages look very different across subjects and locations, as a function of the various polices and conditions at play.

Shortages Vary by Subject Area Special Education Mathematics 42+DC 48+DC Science Almost every state is experiencing shortages in certain subjects. Shortages are particularly severe in special education, followed by math and science. And depending state demographics, more than 30 states also reported shortages in bilingual and English learner education. 40+DC Reported Shortages No Shortages

Math and Science: New Fully Prepared Teachers Decline As Underprepared Teachers Increase 14% 32% 23% 51%

How Are Districts Filling Vacant Teaching Positions How Are Districts Filling Vacant Teaching Positions? (% of California Districts)

Déjà vu …. all over again

Unequal Access to Qualified Teachers in California, 2000

Exacerbating the Leaky Bucket Higher attrition (2-3 times greater than those who are well-prepared) Not only are teachers without full preparation generally worse for student outcomes, but also only act as a Band-Aid solution. Research indicates these teachers leave at 2 to 3 times the rates of fully prepared teachers, creating the “leaky bucket” phenomena which is the largest driver of shortages. Desiree will explain more about the special and important problem of attrition. Teachers with no preparation Lower student outcomes

Californians Do Not Want to Repeat the Past

Teacher Attrition Drives Teacher Demand 97% 87% Sources of shortage: - Impt. to identify underlying reason for shortage Lionshare of demand is attrition (nearly 90%) – Vast majority – (2/3) mid-career, less than a third demand is retirement

The Importance of Attrition 8% So, annual national attrition rate 8% is driving the teacher shortage This attrition is about double that of other high-achieving countries – Finland, Singapore, Ontario, CAN What would happen if we cut the attrition rate in half to be comparable with high-achieving nations? 18

The Importance of Attrition 8% 4% This new line shows what teacher demand would be if the attrition rate were just 4%. Virtually eliminated teacher shortage - great for students: schools can hire the teacher who’s best for a position Students do better when the teaching staff is more stable

Who leaves teaching at higher rates? Beginning teachers Mathematics and science teachers Special education teachers Teachers of English learners Teachers in high-poverty, high-minority schools Teachers of color So, In order to cut attrition in half – think about who’s leaving and why - Beginning teachers – 20-30% within 5 years - Math/science – Less teaching preparation and opportunities for better-paid jobs - High-poverty, high-minority – fewer resources, poor working conditions, especially vulnerable to accountability measures/sanctions that push teachers out - Teachers of color in particular, in high poverty, high minority schools – (three quarters of teachers of color work in high minority schools) high attrition, as a result

Types of Reasons Given by Teachers for Leaving the Profession Accountability pressures Administration Working conditions Most teachers state that dissatisfaction of some sort is a very or extremely important reason for why they left. largest area of dissatisfaction teachers report testing and accountability measures. NCLB punitive accountability measures drove teachers out of teaching – in particular in high poverty schools Teachers also report dissatisfaction: their administration, other school working conditions. After that family/personal. As I mentioned earlier, less than a third of all leavers say retirement was a very or extremely important reason for leaving. This is important – If teachers were leaving to retire, we would say, hey congratulations, and look to other solutions. but that’s not the case They’re often leaving mid-career and if they didn’t we could eliminate shortages and students would be better off

Administrative Support Impacts Turnover 10% 15% 20% 25% 0% One of the key areas that teachers express dissatisfaction with is administrative support. We find a Significant relationship between administrative support and teacher turnover. (moving schools/leaving teaching) When teachers feel strongly that their administration isn’t supportive/ encouraging, they are more than twice as likely to leave school/teaching than when they feel strongly that their administration does those things well (even when you hold constant other characteristics of the school/teacher) . Working conditions and administrative support matter and can make a difference in attrition rates – Admin support means: -Offering tailored professional development - Nurturing collaboration Acknowledging teacher accomplishments Providing useful feedback We see this in the states Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree Strongly Disagree SCHOOL ADMINISTRATION IS SUPPORTIVE

What would bring leavers back? Financial incentives Teaching conditions Flexibility 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Ability to maintain teaching retirement benefits An increase in salary Smaller class size or smaller student load Easier and less costly renewal of certification State certification reciprocity Availability of part-time teaching positions Availability of suitable child care options Forgiveness of student loans Housing incentives One sizable source of teachers are re-entrants to the profession ( 1/3 to a 1/2 of new hires each year). Right now there are not enough re-entrants to meet demand So an important question is what would bring leavers back? Financial incentives Working conditions Flexibility Linda will describe the policies that can help address these issues and eliminate the teacher shortage

What Do High-Achieving Nations Do? Competitive, equitable salaries Strong universal preparation at little or no cost, with extensive training in partner schools Quality mentoring 15-20 hours per week for collaborative planning Sustained, practice-based collegial learning opportunities Teaching careers that reward, develop, and share expertise Sharing of best practices across classrooms & schools

What Matters in Recruiting and Retaining Teachers Compensation Preparation Mentoring and Induction Teaching Conditions

Compensation U.S. teachers make about 20% less than other college graduates; 30% by mid-career. Salaries have lost ground since the 1990s Average starting salaries in 2013 ranged from $27,000 (MT) to $44,000 (AK) In more than 30 states, a mid-career teacher heading a family of 4 is eligible for several forms of government assistance

Preparation and Mentoring Preparation and early mentoring strongly influence teacher effectiveness and retention Funding for both has declined: The debt load for preparation has increased Only about 2/3 of teachers receive comprehensive preparation before entering Fewer teachers receive mentoring + principal support (down from 75% in 2008 to 59% by 2012)

Teaching Conditions U.S. teachers have more teaching hours and less planning time than others in the world Only 15% of teachers report collaborative work environments, down from 30% in 2000 Resources for teaching declined during the recession; most states are still spending less in constant dollars than in 2007 Growth in child poverty, homelessness, and trauma makes teaching more challenging

Policy recommendations Better compensation packages: Competitive, equitable salaries Financial incentives Housing Child care Build lasting teacher supply: Forgivable loans, scholarships High-retention preparation pathways Grow Your Own programs Teacher Residencies Policy recommendations Improve retention: High-quality mentoring Collegial work environments Administrator training Enhance mobility: License reciprocity Pension portability

This Problem Has Been Solved Before In the 1990s, CT and NC both eliminated shortages and increased achievement by: Increasing and equalizing salaries Offering service scholarships and loans Raising standards for teacher preparation Introducing strong mentoring systems Offering high-quality professional development Training principals to support teaching

Discontinued and Inactive Teacher Recruitment Programs in California   Program Funding History/Timeline Teacher Recruitment Incentive Program (TRIP) * Funded beginning in 2000-01 * Suspended 2003-04 California Center for Teaching Careers (CalTeach) * Funded beginning in 1997 * Funding peaked in 2000-01 and 2001-02 * Suspended 2003-04 (CDE took over website) Governor's Teaching Fellowship * Funded beginning in 2000-01 * Suspended 2002-03 Cal Grant T * Funded beginning in 1998-99 * Discontinued 2003-04 Teacher Retention Tax Credit * Funded beginning in 2000 * Suspended 2002, reinstated 2003, suspended again 2004 Mathematics Initiative for Teaching * Funded beginning in 1998 * Significantly reduced 2002-03 * Eliminated 2003-04 Teaching as a Priority (TAP) Block Grant * Funding began, peaked in 2000-01 * Funding suspended in 2003-04 * Rolled into PD Block Grant in 2005-06 Assumption Program of Loans for Education (APLE) * Long-standing loan forgiveness program * New warrants suspended in 2012-13 (active recipients still received remaining funds)

Policy Recommendations Reinstate the CalTeach Program to support recruitment. Use service scholarships and forgivable loans to attract diverse, talented individuals to teach in high-need locations and fields Create early pipelines into teaching, such as High School Career Pathways and Grow Your Own Programs. Invest in innovative preparation programs such as Teaching Residencies and Blended Special Education Programs, including undergraduate models. Ensure that new teachers have access to high-quality mentoring. Provide incentives that support teachers’ ability to stay in or re-enter the profession (e.g. salaries, housing supports, streamlined entry for re- entrants and out-of-state recruits, retiree options) Improve teaching conditions by supporting administrator training for creating productive teaching and learning environments.

We Can Solve it Again “For the past decade, I’ve worked at a school where 97 percent of the children qualify for free and reduced-price lunch. I stay because the school climate is good for children and teachers alike. I stay because my principal is wonderful, supports us, does what’s best for children, and because I trust her. I stay because my colleagues are gifted teachers and good company and because I continually learn from them.” -- Kirsten Ragatz, 20-year Minneapolis teacher

Addressing the Teacher Shortage: What States and Districts Can Do Download reports: https://learningpolicyinstitute.org Sign up for updates: https://goo.gl/mnzSDW Download fact sheet: http://bit.ly/WhatStatesCanDo