The proposed project : STUDY ON IDENTIFICATION THE INDICATORS AND DEVELOPMENT THE WARNING MODELS FOR HUMAN DISEASES IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS OF VIETNAM Nguyen Huu Quyen, from IMHEN

Goals of the study Research on identification climatic indicators relating to risks of human diseases Develop a map which shows the climatic indicators relating risks of human diseases by using GIS and remote sensing technology; Develop the warning models for human diseases.

Overview of related research in the world 3

Sensitivity level of the climatic variables related to some diseases

In study by Mr. Browne a 2014 , it was shown that the number of malaria cases in Ghana had a close relation with monthly temperature and precipitation corresponding to different time lags periods:

Cross-correlation coefficients between the local climatic factors and the number of malaria cases in Colombia

Relations between the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NVDI) and Malaria in Eritrea, Africa

Rachel 2012 showed the number of dengue cases in Southeast Brazil was related to the temperature, precipitation and ENSO indices corresponding to different time lags periods.

Kleinschmidt (2011) with the spatial analysis model on the risk of malaria outbreaks in Africa based on climatic factors and the distance to water

Time series analysis model to warn of Dengue occurence cases in Lavras

Rachel 2012: Comparison between warning results obtained from the model and from actual observed data on the number of Dengue cases

Number of months suitable for malaria transmission Precipitation > 80mm; Average temperature from 18 °C to 32 °C; Relative humidity > 60%.

Map of climatic suitable for malaria transmission in South Africa

Overview on related researches in Vietnam 14

Source: Tran Mai Kien and CS, Workshop: Orientation dengue research in the context of adapting to climate change, the Pasteur Institute in Ho Chi Minh City, 2015 .

Các giai đoạn El Nino (Vòng liền màu đỏ) và La Nina (Vòng chấm màu xanh) trong 100 vừa qua Note: El Nino events - red marks and La Nina - blue marks Source: http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm)

Sự trùng hợp giữa gia tăng tỷ lệ mắc sốt rét và El Nino (1976-1994): các vòng đỏ trùng với El Nino Note: El Nino +1 Source: Tran Mai Kien and CS, Workshop: Orientation dengue research in the context of adapting to climate change, the Pasteur Institute in Ho Chi Minh City, 2015 .

Thay đổi tỷ lệ mắc sốt rét trên 100 Thay đổi tỷ lệ mắc sốt rét trên 100.000 dân 1997-2004: Dưới tác động của các chiến dịch can thiệp chống sốt rét Source: Tran Mai Kien and CS, Workshop: Orientation dengue research in the context of adapting to climate change, the Pasteur Institute in Ho Chi Minh City, 2015 .

Phân bố không gian của tỷ lệ mắc sốt rét / 100,000 dân ở Việt Nam: Năm 2004

The need of the study Health is one of the four priority areas within the Global Framework for Climate Services

Diagram on our proposed project

Data processing softwares

GIS TECHNOLOGY

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