HANS ROSLING

Thomas Malthus (1766-1834) Economist who lived in England during the birth of the Industrial Revolution. Noticed that the population was increasing rapidly as the death rate fell Developed theory that the world was headed toward a population disaster- or, more specifically, a massive famine- because the population was increasing faster than the rate of food production.

1798

Thomas Malthus (1766-1834) Malthus believed population rises geometrically, while food production rises arithmetically

Malthus’ disaster never happened, however Malthus’ disaster never happened, however. He lived while the Industrial Revolution was expanding across Europe and America, and assumed that the rate of pop’n increase would continue until crisis enveloped the planet. As we now know, however… Population growth would slow to a halt during later stages of the DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION.

Paul Ehrlich’s book was a best-seller Malthus’ fear of growing populations has not gone away. In the 1960s, as the population of the developing world skyrocketed, people again began to worry about an impending disaster. These people were called NEO-MALTHUSIANS Paul Ehrlich’s book was a best-seller

Once again, however, the predictors of a global population nightmare were wrong. The effects of Stage 3 were becoming more apparent, with birthrates in developed countries falling, and it could then be assumed the same would eventually happen elsewhere. And like Malthus himself, the Neo-Malthusians underestimated the human ability to solve problems. The GREEN REVOLUTION- which we’ll study later- led to a massive expansion of agriculture.

What about the Neo’s??? Neo-Malthusians think too much pop and not enough food could still happen for 3 reasons: Sustainability – can we really keep up with food production over the long term once we reach the futuristic 9-10 billion world pop? (agricultural techniques) Increasing Per Capita Demand – amount of food per person is rising (that’s right we eat too much, and others can’t wait to join the food party) 1st worlders consume 8X what 3rd worlders do (shame on us) What happens when we all eat like 1st worlders? Natural Resource Depletion – Paul Erlich warned about over- consumption of resources like timber, minerals, energy, & other nonrenewables Enough material to house everyone, fuel to heat, enough food to feed?

Those who believe that humans have the capacity to overcome the challenges we face are believers in CORNUCOPIAN THEORY.

Natalist Policies Countries around the world face problems from populations that are either growing too fast, or which are slowly shrinking. Countries with LOW birthrates try to promote their people to procreate by instituting PRO-NATALIST POLICIES. Countries with HIGH birthrates try to curb the amount of children being born by instituting ANTI-NATALIST POLICIES.

Denmark, like many European countries, has a population in decline. To combat their low birthrate, the Danish government has funded a campaign called ‘Doing It for Denmark’

Singapore has a similar idea- NATIONAL NIGHT

India, however, has more than a billion people and a birthrate that remains very high. It will become the most populated country in the world in the coming years.

China in the 1970s faced a population jumping into the billions China in the 1970s faced a population jumping into the billions. In order to curb the reproductive habits of its huge populace, its leaders created a controversial law- The ONE CHILD POLICY

UNDER THE ONE CHILD POLICY- Couples had to APPLY to have a child. Men could not marry until 22, women until 20. Having only one child would result in increased social benefits like money from the government, free food, or expanded opportunities. Having a second child could result in massive fines and a reduction in these same social benefits. Men and women could receive a large sum of money for undergoing sterilization.

‘Little Emperor’ Syndrome

Epidemiologic Transition Identifies distinct health threats in each stage of the Demographic Transition.

Stage 1 – Pestilence and Famine (High CDR) During stage one most deaths occur due to infectious or parasitic diseases, or from environmental factors like floods or earthquakes.

The BLACK PLAGUE is the deadliest of the Stage 1 epidemics; more than HALF of Europe died- IN THREE YEARS. It was spread by fleas carried by rats on ships, so port citiers were the first to fall victim.

Stage 2 – Receding Pandemics (High CBR, Low CDR) Improved sanitation, nutrition, and medicine leads to a reduction in epidemics, and overall death rates plummet.

John Snow’s Cholera Study (1854)

Stage 3 – Degenerative Diseases (Low CBR & CDR) During Stage 3, people are living longer than ever before and chronic diseases associated with age begin to be society’s greatest health challenge.

Stage 4 – Delayed Degenerative Diseases (Low CBR, Low but increasing CDR) Deaths caused by cardiovascular diseases, cancer, and other progressive diseases delayed because of modern medical technology and treatments.

Because of the epidemiologic transition, health patterns are very different in the developed and developing world.

Stage 4 problems-CANCER RATES FIGURE2-33 MALE CANCER Cancer is an example of a cause of death for men that is higher in developed countries than in developing ones.

Stage 4 problems- OBESITY RATES FIGURE 2-34 OBESITY Obesity is a health problem in the United States and in Southwest Asia.