Dmitry Messen Houston-Galveston Area Council www.h-gac.com Our Experiences with Land Use-Transportation Modeling Presentation at NYMTC Workshop May 1, 2008 Dmitry Messen Houston-Galveston Area Council www.h-gac.com

Transportation-Land Use Connection Why integrate? You only need the integrated LUT model if you believe that people, businesses, and developers do (and will) respond to changing urban travel conditions Good News: “Integration” affects the LU side only, TDM is already integrated with LUM Regional travel patterns depend on the geographic distribution of people and jobs What would it take to integrate LUM with TDM? Pass relevant info (e.g., travel times and costs) from TDM to LUM and force the LUM to make use of it

Desired Model Features Comprehensiveness Bringing the major disciplinary “sub-models” of reality (population, economy, built environment) onto a single platform Disaggregation Tracking of individuals, households, jobs, businesses, building, housing units, parcels Agent-based Representation of decision-makers (households, businesses, developers) and decision-making process (location choice) Simulation Allowing uncertainty and randomness

TDM-LUM Iteration Forward-going iteration between LUM and TDM Today’s land use decisions are informed by the transportation conditions of the present (or expectations of what they will be in the future) Future transportation conditions are changed by today’s land use decisions Dynamic Disequilibrium Path-dependence: we have to live with the consequences of our choices (no “undo” button) If a LUM forecast is using TDM inputs, then it’s TDM version-specific If you add/remove a facility, you have to re-run the whole sequence

UrbanSim-TDM Integration

UrbanSim at H-GAC Since 2003 (DRAM-EMPAL before that) Initiated by staff and supported by management 2 successful implementations (2025 and 2035 RTP) Evolved together with the software New model under development From grid-based to parcel-based

How UrbanSim Works A micro simulation of a changing regional system What changes? Physical stock of housing and work space Number of people and businesses Where people and businesses reside Who are the agents (decision-makers)? Households, businesses, developers Defined starting (base-year) conditions and decision-making rules Agents are making location decisions Where to reside What and where to build Annual increments; regional control totals

UrbanSim Land Use Forecasting Model County Appraisal Data Current Land Use Past Land Use Change Simulation Statistical Modeling Site attributes Neighborhood attributes Regional accessibilities Future Road Network “Builds” housing units and non-residential square footage Known Future Development Future Land Use

Types of Activities Data Development Model-independent, never-stopping activity (requires comprehensive strategy) Model Specification and Calibration Research-type, relatively self-contained activity (most suitable for out-sourcing) Scenario Development, Analysis, and Communication Transparency and access (web-based mapping and data query applications)

Thematic Domains of Expertise Built Environment Parcels, buildings, infrastructure Natural Environment Slope, soils, vegetation, suitability Regulatory Environment Zoning, general plans, protected areas People Socioeconomic details (synthesis) Economy Macro (global, national, regional) Micro (businesses, jobs)

Staffing Issues “Thematic” Specialization Skills Tiered Structure Demography, economics, land use Skills GIS, data management, statistics, programming (especially for web-based apps) Tiered Structure Vision and strategy (leadership): goals design Tactics (senior staff): process design Execution (junior staff)

Experiences Data development is extremely important Model’s credibility will depend on it Process development is more important than the data itself (reproducibility, metadata, documentation) There is no destiny, there are scenarios Be prepared to explain that Transparency is the best policy Prepare to share data

Benefits De-politicized forecast Relative unimportance of Control Totals New answers beget new questions Ability to model complex scenarios Foundation for activity-based TDM

Challenges/Opportunities If NYMTC can make it there, an MPO can make it anywhere! Hardware and software limitations Feedback between LUT model and control totals (regional, national, and global competition for jobs) Keys to Success Ambitious goals Enthusiastic staff Management’s commitment Planning

Thank you!