Keynote Eric Newell Stoneridge Software

Today’s Topic Today I want to talk about luck What is luck? Psychologist Richard Wiseman studied this in the early 2000 where he studied 400 people who considered themselves very lucky or very unlucky He found that while there is “chance” – “lucky people generate their own good fortune” I want to tell a story about how to make your own luck

For this story, we are going to venture here

Antarctica & South Pole I want to talk about Antarctica – it’s way down there on the map As of 1900, no one had ever been to the south or north pole Heroic Age of Antarctic Exploration 1902 Discovery Expedition – included Robert Scott 1907 Ernest Shackleton makes it within 112 miles of the South Pole 1908 Frederick Cook and 1909 Robert Peary reach the North Pole

The Race to the South Pole (1910) Robert Scott Roald Amundsen Scott’s background Made it to 82 degrees in 1902, about 530 miles from the pole (Discovery Expedition) – came back a national hero, promoted to Commander of the Royal Victorian Order, Shackleton had gone with him 43 years old at the time of journey British Royal Navy officer Amunden’s background Grew up in a family of fishermen – promised his mom he’d be a doctor, but changed his mind when she died when he was 21 In 1888, inspired by Norwegian explorer’s journey across Greenland In 1899 joined a Belgian Antarctic expedition – first expedition to winter in Antarctica – locked in sea ice at 70 degrees, survived by eating fresh meat which had Vitamin C In 1903, Led first expedition through Canada’s northwest passage Wanted to go to the North Pole but Peary got their first 39 year old

Getting to Antarctica Set off for Antarctica on June 15 1910 Scott Amundsen Set off for Antarctica on June 15 1910 Much publicized departure Arrived in Antarctica at McMurdo Sound (Ross Island) in early October Originally planned an expedition to the North Pole - changed his plans and didn’t tell his crew until mid-1910 Left Norway on Aug 9 1910 Informed Scott of change of plans on Sep 9 Arrived at the Bay of Whales on Jan 14 1911

Expedition Plan Variable Scott Amundsen Starting Point McMurdo Sound – modeled off Shackleton’s voyage Bay of Whales – never been tried as a port before Crew 16 men 5 men Animals 23 dogs, 10 ponies 52 dogs Sledges 13 plus 2 motorized 4 Depots 10 7 Path modeled off Shackleton’s voyage in 1907 – winter camp on Ross Island Crew: 16 men Animals: 23 dogs, 10 ponies Sledges: 13 plus 2 motor sledges Developed new path with winter camp at Bay of Whales Crew: 5 men Animals: 52 dogs Sledges: 4

And they’re off… Amundsen Scott Worried of reports of Scott’s motorized sledges, wanted to leave as early as possible Tried to leave in late Sep – ran into bad winter weather and turned around Departed on Oct 20 Distance to Pole – 640 miles Motor party set out on Oct 24 Main group (including Scott) on Nov 1 Distance to Pole – 700 miles

Approaching the Glacier Trek across the ice shelf – no elevation Once you reach mainland – severe elevation change Need to climb a glacier

Who Got There First? "Never has a man achieved a goal so diametrically opposed to his wishes. The area around the North Pole—devil take it—had fascinated me since childhood, and now here I was at the South Pole. Could anything be more crazy” On December 14, 1911 – Amundsen and his 4 men reached the south pole – 90 degrees Actually spent three days there

What about Scott? Scott arrived at the Pole on January 17, 1912 He found a Norwegian flag on top of a tent & a letter from Amundsen He wrote in his diary: “This is an awful place and terrible enough for us to have laboured to it without the reward of priority” However, “Now for a desperate struggle to get the news through first. I wonder if we can do it” He thought he could get some notoriety if he could be the first one back

The Road Back - Amundsen Scott Placed black flags every 3 miles to mark his path back Placed depots along the way for food and supplies Marched efficiently back over the terrain Arrived back at base camp precisely on schedule, on Jan 25 1912 Made good progress the first 3 weeks on the way back Started to suffer due to injuries and frostbite and one member died on Feb 17 Three issues plagued them – drop in temperature, less supplies in depots than needed and no intercepting party

March 29, 1912 – death of the remaining Scott party – Henry Bowers & Edward Wilson Perished due to starvation

Comparing the Two Approaches In their first 34 days, each had exactly the same ratio of good to bad weather days – 56% Variable Scott Amundsen Differences Starting Point McMurdo Sound – modeled off Shackleton’s voyage Bay of Whales – never been tried as a port before Amundsen had a shorter distance and more time on the ice shelf Crew 16 men 5 men Scott ended up with 5 proceeding past the glacier Animals 23 dogs, 10 ponies 52 dogs The ponies couldn’t survive in the cold Sledges 13 plus 2 motorized 4 The motorized sledges couldn’t operate in the cold Depots 10 7 Amundsen’s depots were well planned; Scott’s were not

Sledges Man-Hauling Clothing Focus Daily rhythm Other Differences Amundsen had craftsman create his own skis for the sledges so they can move faster; Amundsen’s sledges were considerably lighter Scott’s men had to “man-haul” the sledges instead of having them pulled by dogs Amundsen’s men wore animal skins – something he learned from many years with the eskimos Scott had a dual mission to gather meteorological data which cost his time and distracted his focus Amundsen planned to move 5-6 hours per day; Scott varied based on weather but expected 9 hours per day on good weather days

Lessons from the Race for Business Don’t send a dog expert to get ponies If something is critical, hire an expert Go live with the eskimos Immerse yourself in information and experiences Don’t run motorized sledges in the cold Test out a new idea in its environment before anointing it the ultimate solution Don’t set a dog expert to get ponies - Get 60 miles closer – don’t always accept the status quo; do your research and find a better way Go to the eskimos – listen to the experts Mechanical sledges – don’t try untested experiments Set your flags – document what you’ve done so you can retrace your path later Set your black flags along your route Document what you’ve done so you can retrace your path later

What does this teach us about luck? “I may say that this is the greatest factor—the way in which the expedition is equipped—the way in which every difficulty is foreseen, and precautions taken for meeting or avoiding it. Victory awaits him who has everything in order — luck, people call it. Defeat is certain for him who has neglected to take the necessary precautions in time; this is called bad luck.” - Roald Amundsen

How to Make Your Own Luck Maximize Your Chance Opportunities Listen to Your Hunches Expect Good Fortune Turn Bad Luck to Good According to Dr. Wiseman, there are 4 ways people can be “lucky” Maximize – the more opportunities you notice and take chances on, the more luck you’ll get Listen to lucky hunches – follow your gut – a story of a business owner hearing a lady say “Mr. Buffett” in NY. He asked her if it were Warren Buffett and she said it was – he ultimately ended up selling his company for a huge profit Luck becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy If you have bad luck, imagine how it could be worse – CEO friend said the good news was his dog had mouth cancer – was able to take him to a specialist who could help him

How are you going to make your own luck?

Interesting Facts about the South Pole Highest Recorded Temperature: 9.9° F Lowest Recorded Temperature: -117° F Not the magnetic pole (in the ocean) About 150 people during the summer; 45 in the winter Communication done via satellite telephones and Internet (100k max email size) Oldest person to visit the South Pole: Buzz Aldrin The sun rises and sets only once per year There is no solar time or time zone (use New Zealand time)

Learn more The Last Place on Earth Roald Amundsen on Wikipedia Race to the South Pole (Discovery Channel) The South Pole by Amundsen Antarctica – a Frozen History