Disclaimer ”This presentation may contain statements that express management’s expectations about future events or results rather than historical facts. These forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in forward-looking statements, and CVRD cannot give assurance that such statements will prove correct. These risks and uncertainties include factors: relating to the Brazilian economy and securities markets, which exhibit volatility and can be adversely affected by developments in other countries; relating to the iron ore business and its dependence on the global steel industry, which is cyclical in nature; and relating to the highly competitive industries in which CVRD operates. For additional information on factors that could cause CVRD’s actual results to differ from expectations reflected in forward-looking statements, please see CVRD’s reports filed with the Brazilian Comissão de Valores Mobiliários and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.”
Agenda Highlights Delivering profitable growth A good business outlook is supported by the long cycle
Highlights
Highlights An outstanding performance. Fundamentals better than they have been in many years. Current cycle is one of the strongest since late 19th century. Good strategy execution is allowing us to explore growth opportunities wisely. Disciplined capital management creates highly competitive growth platforms and high return on invested capital. Powerful cash flow and good financial policy generate a healthier balance sheet.
Delivering profitable growth
Sales in a strong growth path An all-time high revenue, US$ 2.3 billion, with qoq growth (12.5%) mostly driven by larger volumes (71%). In 000’ tons a million of ntk
9M04 Gross Revenues: US$ 6.051 billion Ferrous minerals accounted for 69% of revenues. China is an important growth driver, but accounts for only 11% of revenues 9M04 Gross Revenues: US$ 6.051 billion By product By geography
Iron ore and pellets shipments reached an all-time high in 3Q04 million tons 116.7 60.4 55.9 55.6 148.7 52.9 46.6 42.5 164.2 41.5 186.2 130.6 169.2 CAGR 00-04E = 9.7%
CVRD railroads transported a record volume of general cargo for clients Billion of ntk CAGR 00-04E = 9.8%
Adjusted EBIT reaches a new quarterly record
Operational excellence across-the-board adjusted EBIT margin by business area
Market Cap as of September 30, 2004 US$ billion An outstanding earnings performance among main metals and mining companies reporting quarterly Market Cap as of September 30, 2004 US$ billion 3Q04 Net Earnings US$ million Source: Bloomberg LP and company reports
To stay at the lowest end of the industry cost curve is key to weather the downcycle and to leverage the upcycle Net earnings US$ million
LTM adjusted(2) EBITDA US$ billion Despite the BRL appreciation against the USD, quarterly cash generation hits the one billion dollar mark. Ten quarters of consecutive growth LTM adjusted(2) EBITDA US$ billion
Sources of cash generation Investments are changing CVRD profile: cash flow became much more powerful and generated from a more diversified set of sources Sources of cash generation 1Q02 Adjusted EBITDA 3Q04 Adjusted EBITDA US$ 397 million US$ 1.007 billion
Capex reached US$ 1.27 billion in the first nine months of 2004, with four major projects delivered CAPEX 9M04 US$ 1.270 billion Main projects delivered Pier III PDM Carajás 70 Mt Candonga Sossego Growth capex US$ 798 million On track Fabrica Nova I Carajás 85 Mt Brucutu I Fazendão Itabira Alunorte 4&5 Paragominas I Taquari-Vassouras Aimorés Capim Branco I&II Stay-in-business capex US$ 472 million
Return on invested capital Capital allocation discipline and good strategy execution spearheaded constantly high performance Return on invested capital a Annualized
Powerful cash generation allows CVRD to finance growth initiatives and to meet shareholders’ dividend expectations 2004 dividend US$ 0.68 per share Dividend growth 2004/2003 +15.7% 2003/2002 +12.1%
Balance sheet is improving continuously
A good business outlook is supported by the long cycle
After growing at 5% per year, a 30-year high, global economy recovery reached a mature stage Global PMI Source: JPMorgan
We expect global GDP growth rate to stay above long-term trend in the near future % CAGR 1970 - 2003 = 3.6% Source: IMF and CVRD
Some indicators are signalling that a Chinese soft landing is becoming more likely Fixed asset investment Bank credit YoY% YoY% Source: CEIC
China’s GDP growth is slowly cooling down China’s GDP growth is slowly cooling down. We expect growth rate to converge to 7% per year GDP growth YoY % Source: CEIC and CVRD
Apparent steel consumption is forecast to continue to grow faster than global GDP CAGR 1974-94 = 0.0% - 1994-04E = 2.9% CAGR 1974-94 = 7.9% - 1994-04E = 8.4% Million tons +5.1% +7.6% +12.9% +10.3% Source: IISI and CVRD
Global seaborne iron ore demand is expected to follow above long-term trend growth Million tons CAGR 1990-04E = 3.9% CAGR 1990-04E = 20.7% +5.9% +10.8% +15.4% +31.8% Source: CVRD
Aluminum inventories are dwindling as global demand is growing at almost 10% per year Source: IAI, LME, Comex and Bloomberg
We expect global aluminum market to remain in deficit in 2005 000’ tons Source: CRU and CVRD
The outlook for the next 12 months is for continuing tightness in the alumina market Source: Metal Bulletin, LME and Bloomberg
Copper inventories continue to be depleted Copper inventories continue to be depleted. Low inventories give support to next year’s prices Source: Bloomberg
CVRD – A Global Leader www.cvrd.com.br e-mail: rio@cvrd.com.br
Appendix Reconciliation of non-GAAP information and comparable GAAP information (1) Adjusted EBIT (US$ million) 3Q03 2Q04 3Q04 Net operating revenues 1,432 1,920 2,173 COGS (812) (912) (1,053) SG&A expenses (74) (106) (112) Research and development (22) (27) (36) Other Operating Expenses (23) (43) (86) Operating income (Adjusted EBIT) 501 832 886 (2) Adjusted EBITDA (US$ million) Reconciliation between adjusted EBITDA vs. operating cash flow Operating Cash Flow 435 700 1,107 Income tax (41) 41 285 Monetary and Foreign Exchange Losses 44 (46) 41 Financial Expenses 62 60 113 Net Working Capital 140 221 (436) Others (10) (5) (103) Adjusted EBITDA 630 971 1,007
Appendix Reconciliation of non-GAAP information and comparable GAAP information (3) Gross Debt / LTM Adjusted EBITDA 3Q03 2Q04 3Q04 Gross Debt / LTM Adjusted EBITDA (x) 2.15 1.55 1.34 Gross Debt / LTM Operating Cash Flow (x) 2.46 2.01 1.51 (4) LTM Adjusted EBITDA / LTM Interest Expense LTM Adjusted EBITDA / LTM Interest Expenses (x) 10.15 12.94 12.94 LTM Operating Profit / LTM Interest Expenses (X) 8.09 10.26 10.64 (5) Gross Debt / Enterprise value Gross Debt / Enterprise value (x) 0.24 0.22 0.16 Gross debt / Total assets (x) 0.37 0.36 0.30 Enterprise Value = Market Capitalization + Net Debt