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Experimental Extended range prediction INITIAL CONDITION: 26th July 2017 Working group on Extended Range Prediction Ministry of Earth Sciences, Govt. of India

Real-time forecast based on 26th July 2017 This MME forecast has been prepared using the CFS (T126 & T382) and GFSbc (T126 & T382) (each 11 members) . Abhilash et. al (2015): Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 54, July 2015, DOI:10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0200.1, 1569-1578 Real-time forecast based on 26th July 2017 initial condition

Daily evolution of rainfall and wind at 850hPa (by MME)

Predicted week wise rainfall (by MME)

Daily evolution of vorticity at 850hPa and mean sea level pressure (by MME)

Daily evolution of divergence and winds at 200hPa and 500mb Geopotential Height (by MME)

Daily evolution of RH and winds at 700hPa (by MME)

MISO forecast for next 28 days

Daily evolution of Soil Moisture (top 10cm) Anomaly (by MME)

Forecast of Cyclogenesis probability based on GPI from CGEPS(MME)

Daily evolution of minimum and maximum temperature Anomaly (by MME)

Predicted week wise temperature anomaly (by MME)

MJO Forecast Circle regions with some skill on both forecast and ACC map – these are areas where it is worth looking at Problem calculating these – don’t match with colder temperature forecasts

SOUTH ASIA REGION

Daily Departure of minimum and maximum temperature (by MME)

GLOBAL REGION

Daily evolution of rainfall and wind at 850hPa (by MME)

Predicted week wise rainfall (by MME)

Daily evolution of vorticity at 850hPa and mean sea level pressure (by MME)

Daily evolution of divergence and winds at 200hPa and 500mb Geopotential Height (by MME)

Daily evolution of RH and winds at 700hPa (by MME)

Daily evolution of Soil Moisture (top 10cm) Anomaly (by MME)

Thanks…..