First VarSITI General Symposium June 6-10, 2016, Albena, Bulgaria Identification of coronal origins of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections using plasma ion composition data V.Slemzin 1, D.Rodkin 1, F. Goryaev1, Yu.Shugay 2, I.Veselovsky 2, 3 1 P.N. Lebedev Physical Institute, Moscow, Russia 2 Skobeltsyn Institute of Nuclear Physics, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia 3 Space Research Institute (IKI) RAS, Moscow, Russia

Goals of the study Statistical analysis parameters of ICMEs and spontaneous solar activity in Cycle 24. Comparison with that of Cycle 23. Formation of the event list for Cycle 24 containing parameters of ICMEs including ion composition data and parameters of associated CMEs and flares. Development of a model to predict the ICME ion charge states based on parameters of their coronal sources. 2

Data catalogs for Cycle 24 used in the study ICME: Richardson&Cane list http://www.srl.caltech.edu/ACE/ASC/DATA/level3/icmetable2.htm 1996 – 2016 (ref R&C) Hess&Zhang GMU list http://solar.gmu.edu/heliophysics/index.php/GMU_CME/ICME_List 2007 – 2015 (ref GMU) CME: CACTUS (COR 2 STEREO-A, B, LASCO) http://sidc.oma.be/cactus/ 2007 - 2016 CDAW LASCO http://cdaw.gsfc.nasa.gov/CME_list/index.html 1996 - 2016 Flares: Solar Demon http://solardemon.oma.be/ May 2010 – c.t. SPHINX flare catalog http://156.17.94.1/sphinx_l1_catalogue/SphinX_cat_main.html Feb – Nov 2009 GOES X-ray flares ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/space-weather/solar-data/solar-features/solar-flares/x-rays/goes/xrs/ ACE/SWICS ion charge state data for Cycle 24 The analyzed period No data 09.11 – 06.12 3

Statistics of ICMEs and solar activity in Cycle 24 Сorrelations between year numbers of events Cycle 24 ICME-CME 0.49 ICME-Flares 0.56 Cycle 23 ICME-CME 0.68 ICME-Flares 0.74 R&C: 169 ICMEs, 133 MC(78%); GMU: 65 ICMEs, 47 MC R&C: 307 ICMEs, 196 MC (63%) 15422 CME, 13085 flares 11904 CME, 22691 flares 4

ICME types and geoefficiency in Cycle 24 (GMU list) MC – 70% (negative) Total 65 ICMEs MC – 47 events 5

Ion charge state distributions in ICMEs at 2010-2012 C6/C5 O7/O6 QFe 1 – MC 2 – MC+SH 3 - +CIR 4 – SH 5 - +flank CME 6 – ICME like 7 – range for 23d cycle (Gopalswamy et al. 2013; von Steiger Springer book, 2008) parameter Min-max (non-MC) Min-max (MC) Cyc 23 range Vp 310-660 270-680 360-490 QFe 9.37- 15.1 8.27– 15.69 >12 C6/C5 0.21 – 3.14 0.13 – 12.38 3 - 12 O7/O6 0.16 – 1.43 0.06 – 1.84 0.6 – 1.2 Fe/O 0.15 – 0.44 0.12 - 0.90 >0.24 The temperature-dependent parameters QFe, C6/C5 and O7/O8 in Cycle 24 vary in larger limits than in Cycle 23 due to values in minimum of Cycle 24 were lower. Max values were well correspond to that of Cycle 23. 6

Identification of ICME’s coronal sources Dst Ballistic approximation Transit time LSE / <VCME> ± 12h MacNeice et al. Space Weather, 2011 Calculated time slots for CMEs and flares: 3 flares and CMEs from AR 11261 Partial halo Halo Halo 7

Selection of the associated CMEs and flares CME selection procedure: STA - CME at East limb STB – CME at West limb Simultaneous appearance within 1h Latitudinal contours should cross the equatorial plane Coronal sources of ICMEs of August 5 – 6, 2011 CME: Stereo-A 02.08 06:36UT STB 03.08 14:00UT LASCO 04.08 04:12UT 2016 2009 2010 2011 2012 Flares: 02.08 05:19-06:48 M14 03.08 13:17-14:10 M60 04.08 03:41-04:04 M93 211 A M1 M6 M9 Flare selection procedure: Peak <1h before the CME 8

ICME/source list for 2010-2012 Total ICME 79 ICME/CME 68 (86% identified) ICME/CME/Flare 30 for MC 25 Comparison with GMU ICME list of Phillip Hess & Jie Zhang for 2010 – 2012 From 33 ICME events 15 identifications coincide, 18 events are absent in R&C, 46 events absent in GMU list Content of the extended ICME/source list ICME CME Flares (GOES) MC id all parameters from R&C list dt STA, STB dt peak Min/max, average C6/C5, O7/O6, Qfe Vcme STA, STB flare class, max flux Min/max Fe/O Pa STA, STB pw STA, STB 9

Development of a model to predict the ICME ion charge states using coronal source parameters Flare 08/02 05:19 - 06:48UT GOES temperature of the flare Initial data for modeling: Ne, Te = f(R,t) V(R,t), dV/dt atomic constants (recombination, ionization) plasma condition – LTE Time Teff , MK ne , cm^(-3) 05:32 9.12 1.53E9 05:44 7.31 2.48E9 05:50 7.19 2.40E9 Diagnostics by EUV lines of AIA Kinematics Loops 4-5 10

Basic principles of the model 0 0.1 0.3 1 5 10 100 Earth Distance from the solar surface, Rsun Sun Ne ~5.108 cm -3 5.106 2.104 101 EUV observations conductive cooling radiative cooling expansion cooling (adiabatic) rec >> exp Te~ 3 MK 2 MK 1.5MK maxQFe=16 15 13 recomb < exp Collisionless plasma acceleration loop rize- up CME seen in coronagraph ICME 11 LTE Freeze-in region heating?

Simulation of the ICME of 5-6 August 2011 Ne(0.1R)= 3.109 cm-3 V CME =711 km/s In situ <Qfe> ≈ 13 12

Variation of the ICME ion charge state due to interaction of transient and high-speed flows in the corona ICME1 Recurrent HSS from CH ICME2 Vp |B| Np AR 1514 Disappearance of an ICME signatures due to interaction of transient flow with HSS from CH AR far from CH AR close to CH AR 1493 13

Decrease of ion charge state due to interaction between flows in the corona ICME1 ICME2 14

Conclusions Analysis of statistics of ICME and sporadic solar activity events in 2007-2016 has shown that the year frequency of ICMEs in Cycle 24 is in 40% lower than in Cycle 23. The total number of CMEs is higher, the number of X-ray flares is lower in Cycle 24 than in Cycle 23. Correlation of the ICMEs year frequencies with that of CMEs and flares in Cycle 24 decreased. In Cycle 24 the range between minimum and maximum numbers of peak values for the temperature-dependent ion charge ratios <C6/C5>, <O7/O6> and <QFe> in ICMEs are wider than in Cycle 23 due to extremely weak solar minimum between Cycles 23 and 24. From 79 ICMEs contained in the R&C ICME list for the period 2010-2012, 68 events have been associated with CMEs from which 55 events were associated with flares (25 MC and 30 non- MC). The ion charge state parameters for these cases have been analyzed. The R&C ICME list for 2010-2012 (68 events) has been supplemented with the ion charge state data and parameters of the identified coronal sources (CMEs and flares). 15

5. The theoretical model of forming the ICME ion charge state for minor ions (O,C, Fe) in the corona has been developed. For several tested events estimations by the model are well agreed with measurements. 6. The temperature-dependent ICME ion parameters O7+/O6+ and QFe occurred to be well correlated with the flare flux which confirms their dependence on the source conditions included into the model. The found dependences are similar to that found earlier in Cycle 23. 7. When the parent active region responsible for the CME is located nearby a CH, interaction of the transient flow with HSS flow from CH may influence on signatures of ICME. This effect can be produced by inclination of CME (Gopalswamy et al. 2009) or reconnection between magnetic fields of AR and CH followed by mixture of their plasma fluxes. 16

Thank you for your attention Solar transient in the Miracle book. XVI century