Seminar on Knowledge Systems for Development: Knowledge for Development Seminar, Center for International Development Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, October 30, 2003 Seminar on Knowledge Systems for Development: A Survey of Core Questions and Answers "Science, Salt Water and Submarines: Doing R&D with the Navy" Harvard University Kennedy School of Government Presentation by RADM Richard F. Pittenger, USN (Ret.) Vice President for Marine Operations Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution October/November 2003

ASW as a Cumulative Conditional Probability Equation Success Detection Classification Localization Attack Kill = x Probability of success is controlled by lowest probability. ASW Campaign is a game of small numbers – i.e. attrition (small individual encounter success rates add up to overall success). October/November 2003

ASW and Submarine Warfare Force Level Builder in Cold War SSBN – Ballistic Missile Sub The survivable leg of the triad (second strike) New mission SSN – Nuclear Attack Submarines No longer an anti-commerce mission Now focused on ASW Fixed Wing Aircraft – Maritime Air (VP) Key to winning World War II ASW Campaign No mission without Soviet Submarine Threat Surface Reluctant Players (“Gun Club”) Shore Jobs for: Navy Labs, Academia, Industry October/November 2003

Soviet Submarine Construction Effort Threat Perception Soviet Submarine Construction Effort Recollection of Second Battle of the Atlantic Missiles Close to U. S. Short / No warning (This one gets Congress’s attention.) SOSUS Primary Task - I & W Submarines Threaten Allied Sea Control and thus U.S. National Security October/November 2003

Secrets to Success in PPBS Process President – “Brickbat” DOD Navy – Pentagon and Fleet Congress Priority at all levels Funding (ASW TOA FY ’86 ~ $14B) October/November 2003

Technology / Knowledge “Push” and Requirement Pull (6.3  6.5) Good RDT&E Involves Both Technology / Knowledge “Push” and Requirement Pull (6.3  6.5) The state of knowledge and the availability of knowledgeable scientists, engineers, operators and managers are key ingredients to developing weapons systems. October/November 2003

Technology/Knowledge Examples Technology/Knowledge (Push) Nuclear Powered Sub Ballistic Missile Deep Sound Channel Hydrophone and Cable Technology (AT&T) Acoustic Processing Oceanography Requirement (Pull) Survivable Strategic Missile Capability SOSUS October/November 2003

Technology/Knowledge Examples (continued) Technology/Knowledge (Push) Long Range Acoustic Path CZ, BB Platform Quieting Sonar and Sonobuoy Design Transducer Processing Transmission Oceanography Requirement (Pull) ASW Sensors Sonars Sonobuoys Towed Arrays October/November 2003

Detection Problem Solution Need: large submarine threat Enabled by: U. S. faced with “another” large submarine threat Soviets > 300 subs Combination of nuclear power and ballistic missile tilts Cold War balance. Subs, in general, threaten national security. Solution Need: Large area-basin scale sensors as well as tactical sensors Enabled by: Discovery of long-range acoustic propagation paths – Ewing Approach: SOSUS – fixed arrays Follow-up forces MPA SSN Surface and air sensors exploiting CZ and BB October/November 2003

200-Foot Isothermal Layer The Shadow Zone Below a 200-Foot Isothermal Layer Probing the Ocean for Submarines: A History of the AN/SQS-26 Long-Range, Echo-Ranging Sonar, A Memoir by Thaddeus G. Bell. Page 12. Distribution authorized to the Depart. Of Defense and U.S. DoD contractors only; Administrative or Operational Use; 28 March 2003. Other requests for this document shall be referred to the Naval Sea Systems Command (PMS-411). October/November 2003

Deep-Ocean Sound Paths Exploitable by the SQS-26 Long-Range, Echo-Ranging Sonar Probing the Ocean for Submarines: A History of the AN/SQS-26 Long-Range, Echo-Ranging Sonar, A Memoir by Thaddeus G. Bell. Page 2. Distribution authorized to the Depart. Of Defense and U.S. DoD contractors only; Administrative or Operational Use; 28 March 2003. Other requests for this document shall be referred to the Naval Sea Systems Command (PMS-411). October/November 2003

Echo Versus Frequency Plots at Two Ranges Probing the Ocean for Submarines: A History of the AN/SQS-26 Long-Range, Echo-Ranging Sonar, A Memoir by Thaddeus G. Bell. Page 22. Distribution authorized to the Depart. Of Defense and U.S. DoD contractors only; Administrative or Operational Use; 28 March 2003. Other requests for this document shall be referred to the Naval Sea Systems Command (PMS-411). Page 22. October/November 2003

Engagement Problem Solution NEARTIP – Near-Term Torpedo Soviet submarines Anechoic coatings Double hull construction Countermeasures Fleet Performance Weapon delivery accuracy (CEP) Torpedo sonar range Warhead lethality Solution NEARTIP – Near-Term Torpedo Improvement Program Improve MK46 Torpedo Slow down Better processing, CCM Better explosive warhead Advanced Lightweight Torpedo Major R&D program ~$4B Push sonar, propulsion, guidance & control, warhead to state-of-the-art and beyond Better Fleet Tactics Presidential Priority October/November 2003