General Market and Business Situation in Europe

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Presentation transcript:

General Market and Business Situation in Europe Dr. Timo Würz, General Secretary General Assembly 2014-10-17, Dresden

OECD Composite Leading Indicator 12-months change rate

OECD Composite Leading Indicator for selected CECOF countries

Eurozone development of return on government bonds Return on European government bonds (10 Y) Source:

GDP development of the CECOF countries 2013 2014f 2015f Austria 0,3% 1,6% 1,8% Belgium 0,2% 1,4% France 1,0% 1,5% Germany 0,4% 2,0% UK 1,7% 2,7% 2,5% Italy -1,9% 0,6% 1,2% Poland 3,2% 3,4% Romania 3,5% 2,6% Spain -1,2% 1,1% 2,1% Sweden 2,8% 3,0% Switzerland 1,9% EU 0,1% Euro-Area -0,4% Source: Eurostat, national statistics as per September 2014 f: forecast

Industrial production CECOF countries Index of industrial production** - change against previous year Change against month of previous year 2012 % 2013 Austria -0,3 0,3 Belgium -3,3* 0,8* France -2,7 -0,8 Germany -0,4 0,2 UK -0,1 Italy -6,4 -3,1 Poland 1,4 2,4 Romania 7,8 Spain -6,9* -1,7* Sweden -1,2 -4,6 Switzerland EU28 -2,2 -0,5 Source: Eurostat *preliminary **Industrial production totals without construction industry

Investment in machinery and equipment in CECOF countries, Japan and USA Austria 2,4% 5,3% Belgium 3,1% 4,9% France 3,8% 7,1% Germany 4,2% 6,6% UK 7,9% 8,2% Italy 5,9% 5,7% Poland 7,2% 9,1% Romania 2,5% 4,5% Spain 6,5% 8,5% Sweden 3,9% 8,1% Switzerland 1,2% 1,0% EU Euro-Area 4,7% 6,4% Volume (percentage change on preceding year) Source: European Commission/Eurostat as per August 2014, Oxford Economics, IMF *) gross capital investment f: forecast

World exports of industrial furnaces and burners, 2013 4,5 bn € 4,5 bn € Total volume of world exports, 2013: 8.7 bn € (- 3.3 %) Source: National & VDMA Statistics

World export shares of industrial furnaces and burners, 2002-2013 12-months change rate against previous year in per cent, smoothed line Total volume of world exports, 2013: 8.7 bn € (- 3.3 %) Source: National & VDMA Statistics

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Trends – sales, orders, exports 2014 vs 2013 (spring) 2014 vs 2013 (autumn) - = + Sales Orders Exports - = + Sales Orders Exports ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Feedback from: Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy Sweden, UK Feedback from: Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Romania, Sweden, UK Source: National & VDMA Statistics

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Trends – sales, orders, exports 2014 vs 2013 (autumn) Expectation 2015 vs 2014 - = + Sales Orders Exports - = + Sales Orders Exports ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Feedback from: Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Romania, Sweden, UK Feedback from: Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Romania, Sweden, UK Source: National & VDMA Statistics

Exports of CECOF countries by destination, 2013 Main destinations in 2014 North America EU-28 (?) Main destinations in 2015 ASEAN EU-28 India (?) Total volume of CECOF exports 2013: ca. 4.5 bn € (unchanged vs. 2012) Source: National & VDMA Statistics

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Trends – Export markets 2014 vs 2013 (spring) 2014 vs 2013 (autumn) - = + EU28 Russia ASEAN China India North America South America - = + EU28 Russia ASEAN China India North America South America ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Feedback from :Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Sweden, UK (part.) Feedback from: Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Romania, Sweden, UK

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Trends – Export markets 2014 vs 2013 (autumn) Expectation 2015 vs 2014 - = + EU28 Russia ASEAN China India North America South America - = + EU28 Russia ASEAN China India North America South America ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Feedback from: Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Romania, Sweden, UK Feedback from: Austria, Belgium, Framce, Germany, Italy, Poland, Romania, Sweden, UK