U.S. Dry Bean Market Update: 2015 Dr. Suzanne Thornsbury and Hodan Farah Wells U.S. Dry Bean Convention Boston, MA July 21, 2015 Dr. Suzanne Thornsbury and Hodan Farah Wells U.S. Dry Bean Convention Chicago, IL July 30, 2013 The views expressed here do not necessarily represent those of USDA or the Economic Research Service.

U.S. Production

2014 U.S. Dry Bean Crop at a Glance Production 29 million cwt Area planted 1.72 million acres Area harvested 1.67 million acres Yield 1750 lbs./acre Value of production $1015.5 million Larger crop than in 2013: Area planted and harvested, up 30 percent Yields, almost 8 percent smaller Total production, up almost 19 percent Larger crop than 2013 (up 18%) but still below 3 billion pounds. The 2015 area planted is up slightly (1%) to 1.7429 million acres. Yields off 8%. After being closer to 1900 lbs/acre the last 2 years (2012 and 2013), average yields fell back to 1725 lbs/acre.

U.S. Dry Beans: Acres Harvested 2015f: Harvested acres decrease 1% Trend, 1960-2014 Talk about some state-level changes here. Where are acres down? Trend, 2000-2014 Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service.

Variability in U.S. Dry Bean Acres Harvested Average COV Million acres 1960s 1.41 0.058 1970s 1.40 0.060 1980s 1.62 0.193 1990s 1.82 0.088 2000s 1.46 0.110 2010-14 1.54 0.184 Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service.

U.S. Dry Bean Production 2015f: increase 3% Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service.

U.S. Dry Bean Average Yield 2015f: increase 5% Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service.

Crop Progress: Emergence 2015 Data Source: National Agricultural Statistics Service, State Crop Progress and Condition Report.

Ratio of Average Dry Bean Price to Corn Price Million acres Percent 2015f: 1.71 mill. acres Data Sources: USDA, Economic Research Service (price ratio) and USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (acres planted).

2015f U.S. Dry Bean Crop at a Glance Production 30 million cwt Area planted 1.71 million acres Area harvested 1.66 million acres Yield 1840 lbs./acre Early value of production estimates – under $1 billion due to lower prices, but still in the $900 – 950 million range.

World Production and U.S. Trade

World Dry Bean Production, 1970-2013 To give you some idea of how production has grown and shifted among countries over time. Other countries include many African nations: Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya, Rwanda, Cameroon, Angola. But also North Korea, Nicaragua and Iran. Excludes chickpeas, cowpeas, and broad beans. Data Source: United Nations, Food and Agricultural Organization, FAOSTAT.

U.S. Dry Beans: Global Integration, 1970-2014 Data Source: USDA, Economic Research Service.

U.S. Dry Bean Exports: Top 10 Markets, 2014/15* Sept-May exports to top 10 markets 79% of total YTD Total = 803 million pounds for all markets * September 2014 – May 2015 Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service using data from U.S. Dept. of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau. 11

U.S. Dry Bean Imports: 2005/06-2014/15 Million lbs. Need to identify which countries make up most of “other” category. Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service using data from U.S. Dept. of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau.

ERS Vegetable and Pulses Trade Data by Commodity http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/vegetables-and-pulses-data/by-commodity.aspx

ERS Supply and Use Tables

ERS Supply and Use Tables by Class Beginning in 2015, ERS now publishes Supply and Utilization tables for Dry Beans by class (annual data back to 1980) Vegetable and Pulses Yearbook Tables (released annually; last release March 20, 2015) http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/vegetables-and-pulses-data/yearbook-tables.aspx Pinto Garbanzo Navy Small White Great Northern Small Red Black Pink Lima (dry) Other Red Kidney (all)

S&U: Dry Beans (supply) Year Production Imports Beginning Stocks Total --Million lbs-- 1980s 2357 59 1171 3587 1990s 2911 86 1388 4385 2000s 2440 232 1158 3830 2010-14 2748 292 1063 4103 Source: USDA, Economic Research Service.

S&U: Dry Beans (utilization) Year Exports Seed Use Ending Stocks Domestic Use --Million lbs-- 1980s 887 92 1156 1452 1990s 857 97 1466 1965 2000s 742 83 1082 1923 2010-14 1005 82 1062 1954 Source: USDA, Economic Research Service.

2012 Loss-Adjusted Food Availability Diet Compared with 2010 DGA Recommendations Distinct but related data series on food and nutrient availability for consumption. The data serve as proxies for actual consumption at the national level. Food availability = supply and utilization tables with 1-2 year lag (data are now updated through 2012). These data are the foundation for the other two series. Loss-adjusted food availability subtracts the estimated amount of food lost due to spoilage and other losses in the marketing system. The loss-adjusted data are converted from pounds per capita per year into daily per capita food intake (i.e. cups/day). http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-availability-(per-capita)-data-system.aspx

Dry Beans by Class

Dry Bean Crop by Class Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service.

U.S. Pinto Beans: Domestic Utilization Source: USDA, Economic Research Service.

U.S. Pinto Beans: Production and Dealer Price* 2015f: production increase 15% Million cwt $/cwt * Northeast Colorado Data Sources: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (production); USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service (prices).

U.S. Pinto Beans: Value of Production 2014/15 YTD: ND/MN Grower price decrease 30% Trend 1990-2014 Source: USDA, Economic Research Service.

U.S. Navy Beans: Production and Dealer Price* $/cwt Million cwt. Corelation between production and dealer price, 1990s -60% 2000s -20% 2010-2014 -87% * Michigan Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (production) and USDA, Agriculture Marketing Service (prices).

U.S. Navy Beans: Trade Million lbs. In Argentina Of the 20% of the white alubia beans now in the bin, the majority are under-sized. * September 2014 – May 2015 Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service using data from U.S. Dept. of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau.

U.S. Black Beans: Domestic Utilization Source: USDA, Economic Research Service.

U.S. Black Beans: Production and Dealer Price* Million cwt $/cwt . * Michigan Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (production) and USDA, Agriculture Marketing Service (prices).

U.S. Black Beans: Share of Exports to Mexico* *2014/15 is ERS estimate based on year-to-date trade Source: USDA Economic Research Service using data from U.S. Dept. of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau. 9

U.S. Garbanzo Beans: Domestic Utilization Source: USDA, Economic Research Service.

U.S. Garbanzo Beans: Area Seeded & Share Harvested Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service.

U.S. Garbanzo Beans: Yield Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service.

U.S. Garbanzo Beans: Yield (rolling 3-year average) 1987-2014 Great Northern Pinto Black Garbanzo Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service.

U.S. Garbanzo Beans: Balance of Trade, 1991/92 – 2014/15* Overall imports are up about 12 % over the previous year. (Sept-May). Canada remains the major supplier and imports from Canada have increased 25% over same period the previous year. Mexico is second largest supplier. *2014/15 is ERS estimate based on year-to-date trade Source: USDA Economic Research Service using data from U.S. Dept. of Commerce, U.S. Census Bureau. 9

U.S. Garbanzo Bean Exports: 2009/10-2014/15* Million lbs. Year-to-date total exports down 22% . Spain year-to-date (2014/15) is showing US exports decreasing, but 2015 production in Spain is expected to be down due to dry weather conditions. According to FAS, poor weather conditions have resulted in significantly lower production expectation MY2015/16, despite the higher plantings for the non-irrigated pulses and 90% of garbanzo acres are not irrigated. This creates opportunities for U.S. pulses exports to Spain, although they will continue to face competition from other suppliers such as Canada, Mexico and Argentina *ERS estimate based on year-to-date trade (September – May) Source: USDA Economic Research Service using data from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census.

Grower Prices

Average Grower Price, All Beans Annual average price Source: USDA Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

U.S. Dry Beans, All: Monthly Grower Prices 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2014/15 YTD: price decrease 15% $29.34 $29.57 $43.31 $37.93 $38.13 $33.00 Sept-May These are prices YTD (Sept – June) These are monthly prices so start to pick up some of the intra-year variability 2013/14 2014/15 Source: USDA Economic Research Service using data from USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service 6

Grower Prices Variety (Location) 2013/14* 2014/15* Percent change Pinto (ND/MN) 33.59 23.37 -30 Navy (peas beans) (MI) 41.71 29 Black (MI) 41.90 35.49 -15 Light red kidney (NE/CO) 52.90 48.18 -9 Dark red kidney (MN/WI) 56.89 56.5 -1 Garbanzo (WA/ID) 30.05 29.29 -2.5 Great Northern (NE/WY) 49.44 35 -29 Small Red (WA/ID) 39.93 39.63 Pink (WA/ID) 39.61 39.5 * September - June Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, Agriculture Marketing Service.

Summary 2014 crop: 2015 crop: 2014/15 prices: Larger crop than in 2013: Area planted and harvested, up 30 percent Yields, almost 8 percent smaller Total production, up almost 19 percent 2015 crop: Slightly larger crop than in 2014: Production 30 million cwt Acreage similar, but increased yields 2014/15 prices: Corn price projections similar to previous year Bean price projections down, but varies by class

Thank you http://www.ers.usda.gov/