Bay Area Consumption-Based Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory California Resource Recovery Association Sustainable Material Management Conference Session 152: Sustainable Material Management Sacramento, CA August 8, 2016 David Burch Principal Planner, Bay Area AQMD 375 Beale Street, Suite 600 San Francisco, CA 94105

Overview of Presentation Describe Bay Area AQMD efforts to reduce emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases (GHGs) Regional Climate Protection Strategy Importance of reducing methane & other short-lived climate pollutants Measures to reduce emissions from waste & agriculture Key findings from Bay Area consumption-based GHG emissions

Bay Area Air Quality Management District Large, complex region: 9 counties / 101 cities 7 million + people 2.6 million households 5 million + vehicles Our Mission: Attain air quality standards Protect public health Protect the climate Governing Board made up of local elected officials

2016 Bay Area Clean Air Plan Multi-pollutant plan to reduce emissions of: - criteria air pollutants - greenhouse gases (GHGs) Define a Regional Climate Protection Strategy Help implement statewide AB 32 Scoping Plan Assist climate planning in local cities

Economic Sector Analysis Identify Air District actions that complement State programs to reduce emissions from all economic sectors Transportation Energy Agriculture Water Waste Buildings Stationary Sources Natural & Working Lands Short-lived Climate Pollutants

Bay Area GHG Emissions 2015 GHG Emissions by Sector (Production-Based) 100-year global warming potentials (GWPs) Total = ~ 90 MMT CO2eq

Opportunities & Tools Opportunities: Tools & Resources: Promote efficiency / reduce demand Decarbonize electricity Promote electrification Reduce short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) - methane - black carbon - high-GWP gases Tools & Resources: Research & measurement Regulations Permits & enforcement Grants Partnerships & collaboration Public education

Importance of Reducing SLCPs SLCPs have been overlooked until recently Since SLCPs are “front-loaded”, reducing them helps to ward off global warming in short-term Can help to prevent negative feedback loops that exacerbate global warming Buy time to develop & implement CO2 reduction strategies

Methane Emissions Methane is 2nd largest GHG in Bay Area & California GHG inventory High global warming potential: - GWP of 34, using 100-year timeframe - GWP of 86, using 20-year timeframe Largest sources of methane in Bay Area: - Waste sector (landfills): ~ 50% - Agriculture (animal waste) ~ 27% - Natural gas distribution ~ 14% Methane emissions may be underestimated

Proposed Measures to Reduce Emissions from Waste Sector Strengthen existing rule (Reg 8-34) to reduce emissions of GHGs, reactive organics, and air toxics Develop rule to reduce emissions from composting and anaerobic digestion Encourage local ordinances and programs to reduce green waste going to landfills Promote recycling & waste reduction: - e.g. construction & demolition materials

Proposed Measures to Reduce Emissions from Agriculture Encourage promote measures to reduce carbon in farming, such as carbon sequestration & biogas recovery Promote use of dairy digesters Reduce emissions from enteric fermentation via grazing management & dietary strategies Apply best management practices at Bay Area dairies and animal feed lots

GHG Emissions Inventory Conventional production-based emissions inventory focuses on supply: - Estimate emissions from goods & services produced in a given area Consumption-based emissions inventory (CBEI) focuses on demand: - Estimate emissions embedded in goods & services consumed in a given area CBEI attributes all emissions to the final user/consumer - regardless of location where emissions actually occurred Business sector is treated as an intermediary, not a final user Emissions from government sector are not included 3

Why Develop a CBEI? Production-based inventory does not tell the whole story Modern economy is highly integrated, national & global in scale Major portion of goods & services are imported to region Quantify and account for (indirect) emissions that are generated beyond our boundaries Provide a more complete analysis of our true GHG footprint Collaborated with Dr. Chris Jones @ UC Berkeley Cool Climate Network. (See Panel 150 at 9:00 am on Tuesday.)

Potential Uses of CBEI Inform Bay Area Regional Climate Protection Strategy - identify potential GHG reduction policies Assist climate planning in local cities - consider local variation in emissions footprint Help educate Bay Area residents about most effective ways to reduce their GHG footprint

Basic Approach Kyoto 6 greenhouse gases - CO2, methane, N20, HFCs, PFCs, SF6 Estimate GHG footprint of average household: - Transportation, Housing, Food, Goods, Services Fine-grain scale: each of 4,700 Census block groups in Bay Area Step 1: Develop a consumption profile for each Census block group Step 2: Multiply consumption inputs x life-cycle emissions factors Step 3: Add emissions for each product or service to calculate total GHG footprint

Life Cycle Emissions for Automobile Upstream In-Use Downstream Shipping to Dealer Fuel Consumption Fuel economy Fuel type Driving conditions Landfill Individual Parts Production, including upstream emissions for each part Vehicle Assembly Vehicle Maintenance Recycling / re-use (credit) Upstream emissions from refining gasoline

Major Expenditure Categories Food: Grains & cereals Fruits & vegetables Dairy Meat Other Goods: Clothing Furniture & appliances Personal care products Books, newspapers, CDs Services: Health care Education Financial services Communication Entertainment Transportation: Motor vehicle production Vehicle maintenance Vehicle fuel consumption (driving) Public transportation Air travel Housing: Construction Maintenance Residential energy use Water Waste 41.3 7.4 17.5 27.6

US Average Household GHG Footprint Transportation Average 49.8 metric tons CO2e per household Blue = direct emissions Green = indirect emissions Blue = direct emissions Green = indirect emissions Housing Food Goods Services 31% 26% 18% 12% 12%

SF Bay Area Average Household GHG Footprint Average 44.3 metric tons CO2e per household Blue = direct emissions Green = indirect emissions Transportation Housing Food Goods Services 33% 14% 19% 17% 17%

Key Factors Cool Climate Network model includes 30+ factors But 6 factors account for 92% of variation in GHG footprint household size (# people) household income size of home (square footage of dwelling unit) population density of neighborhood carbon intensity of electricity vehicle ownership rate 20

GHG Emissions and Household Income Household income has strong influence on both magnitude and composition of emissions - transportation - goods - services Lower income households spend larger portion of income on basic food & housing As income increases, people spend more on discretionary goods & services 21

Local Variation in GHG Footprint Large variation in size and composition of GHG footprint GHG footprint is generally lower in urban core areas - smaller homes, lower vehicle ownership rate, better transit Variation between block groups: ratio of 7 to 1 Variation within (large cities): ratio of 4 or 5 to 1 Variation between cities: ratio of 3 to 1 Less variation between counties: - County average footprint ranges from 39 to 49 metric tons per household Can we tailor emissions reduction policies to reflect this local variation? 22

CBEI Products Total Emissions Inventory tables & graphs at regional, county, and city scale Maps showing GHG footprint at fine-grained local scale 23

Block Group Detail Block Group Detail

Example: GHG Emissions – Food Sector Food is GHG-intensive: accounts for ~ 10% of total expenditures, but 19% of Bay Area GHG emissions. Red meat & dairy are the most GHG-intensive food groups - reduce food waste - promote low-GHG diet: less processed food, less meat & dairy Source: Food-Miles & Relative Climate Impacts of Food Choices in the US. Environmental Science & Technology: Vol 42, No. 10, 2008

Policy Implications Transportation - Need to decarbonize transportation sector - Direct growth to areas served by transit, shopping, services Housing - Promote electric space & water heating in homes & buildings - Retrofit existing homes to increase energy efficiency - Encourage appropriate (smaller) home size Food - Reduce food waste - Low-carbon diet: Eat lower on food chain / less processed food Goods & Services - buy locally-produced goods & services - consume less goods, more services 26

For Additional Information www.baaqmd.gov/plans-and-climate/climate-protection http://coolclimate.berkeley.edu/inventory Final Report on consumption-based GHG inventory Tables & graphs showing data for each city and county Interactive on-line map showing variation in size & composition of GHG footprint by Census block group Cool Climate Calculator (individual household) Dave Burch: Dburch@BAAQMD.gov / 415-749-4641 21 27