Approach… Current thoughts of the Technical Leaders Group Presented to the Collaborative Stakeholder Group, 2nd July 2014, Oparure Marae, Te Kuiti

Healthy Rivers Policy Process Approach – as the TLG see it Healthy Rivers Policy Process Desired Values Setting Attribute Levels Water quality (N, P, Sed., bacteria) consistent with Desired Values Scenario Analysis – looking at future options for Limits on point and non-point losses from land Integrated assessment across Values to provide CSG with social, economic, cultural & ecological analysis deliberations CSG CSG Focus Statement e.g., safe to swim, take food, provide well being) Can be ‘alternative’ detail below that CSG outcomes Assess options against Values & risk Consensus? Seek further scenarios? TLG, using: Guidelines (e.g., NOF) Existing information Experts input TLG, using experts for: Predictive modelling Non-market valuation studies

Desired Values are affected by many things – it’s complicated

Desired Values – A task for the CSG Draft Focus Statement from CSG “To come up with limits, timelines and practical options for managing contaminant discharges into the Waikato and Waipa catchments to ensure they are safe to swim in and take food from, support healthy biodiversity and provide for social, economic and cultural wellbeing” Some questions lie beneath that. For example: Values (and therefore attribute limits) met everywhere and all of the time? Or some places, some of the time? Or some combination thereof? At what spatial scale do limits on contaminant losses from land apply? Can there be “overs and unders” in sub-catchments Where water quality is “better than it needs to be,” can it decline? The TLG envisages evaluating the effects of these options during Scenario Analysis

Values and Attribute Limits need to recognise system connectedness “Look after the veins that feed the awa and you will look after the awa itself” Kaumatua, quoted in the WRISS “Never forget gravity – water flows downhill” GE Likens “Rivers are a function of their catchments” HBN Hynes

Sub-catchments – TLG comment Sub-catchments (or “Water management units” - WMUs) could be many or few Keep It Simple principle should apply – minimum number needed Number needed comes back to: Desired Values, Associated Attribute levels and Spatial variation in these Ability of policy to differentiate spatial variation yet not add unnecessary complexity Perhaps 4 WMUs? – Waipa and Upper, Middle and Lower Waikato?

Example of stepping-through the process Value: Swimmable Attribute: Bacteria (E.coli/100ml, 95th percentile) Attribute Levels: Excellent (<55), Satisfactory (55 – 550), Unsatisfactory (>550) Current State: % samples in following ‘swimmable’ categories Excellent Satisfactory Unsatisfactory Upper Waikato 40% 60% 0% Waipa 100% Lower Waikato 20% 80% Scenario Analysis: Model options for reducing faecal bacteria input to waters – wastewater treatment, denying stock access to streams, etc.

Scenario Analysis - predictive models, a window on the future Computer models are a well-used and trusted analytical tool Used in natural sciences, medicine, engineering, accounting, economics, etc. Provide predictions of the future – can play the ‘what if..?’ game Models collect, connect and apply expert knowledge They need good data as input, and often use data to test validity of output Need to choose models that are ‘fit for purpose’ – that answer the question posed They are not perfect and need careful interpretation

In Summary, the Approach: Is sequential rather than simultaneous (mostly) Is iterative rather than once-through Needs more technical work on defining limits to meet CSG Values Requires more scenario modelling, targeted to the needs of the CSG Is complex, requires the ‘bringing together’ of diverse technical work across market and non-market values to provide a clear options analysis Will require decisions to be made where uncertainty exists Will take time so let’s get cracking!

Sources of Information Waikato River Independent Scoping Study http://www.mfe.govt.nz/publications/treaty/waikato-river-scoping-study/ Waikato Regional Council website http://www.waikatoregion.govt.nz/Environment/Natural-resources/Water/Rivers/