Predicting Early Mortality After Acute Variceal Hemorrhage Based on Classification and Regression Tree Analysis Salvador Augustin, Laura Muntaner, José.

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Presentation transcript:

Predicting Early Mortality After Acute Variceal Hemorrhage Based on Classification and Regression Tree Analysis Salvador Augustin, Laura Muntaner, José T. Altamirano, Antonio González, Esteban Saperas, Joan Dot, Monder Abu–Suboh, Josep R. Armengol, Joan R. Malagelada, Rafael Esteban, Jaime Guardia, Joan Genescà Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology Volume 7, Issue 12, Pages 1347-1354 (December 2009) DOI: 10.1016/j.cgh.2009.08.011 Copyright © 2009 AGA Institute Terms and Conditions

Figure 1 Kaplan–Meier plots showing the cumulative probability of (A) survival and (B) remaining free of rebleeding in the 6-week observation period after an acute esophageal variceal bleeding for the whole series (267 patients). Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology 2009 7, 1347-1354DOI: (10.1016/j.cgh.2009.08.011) Copyright © 2009 AGA Institute Terms and Conditions

Figure 2 Prognostic model for 6-week mortality based on an inductive tree generated by CART analysis in the training set of 164 patients after an episode of acute esophageal variceal bleeding. Terminal nodes are outlined with a thicker line. Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology 2009 7, 1347-1354DOI: (10.1016/j.cgh.2009.08.011) Copyright © 2009 AGA Institute Terms and Conditions

Figure 3 Comparison of the AUROC for the best prognostic models for 6-week mortality obtained by LR and CART analysis, and for Child–Pugh and MELD scores, in the training set (164 patients with acute esophageal variceal bleeding, 43 deaths). CI, 95% confidence interval. Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology 2009 7, 1347-1354DOI: (10.1016/j.cgh.2009.08.011) Copyright © 2009 AGA Institute Terms and Conditions

Figure 4 Validation in the test set (103 patients with acute esophageal variceal bleeding, 20 deaths) of the prognostic model obtained by CART analysis from the training set. Terminal nodes are outlined with a thicker line. Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology 2009 7, 1347-1354DOI: (10.1016/j.cgh.2009.08.011) Copyright © 2009 AGA Institute Terms and Conditions

Figure 5 Validation of the prognostic models for 6-week mortality obtained by LR and CART analysis. ROC curves for the final LR and CART prognostic models in the test set (103 patients, 20 deaths). CI, 95% confidence interval. Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology 2009 7, 1347-1354DOI: (10.1016/j.cgh.2009.08.011) Copyright © 2009 AGA Institute Terms and Conditions