Why Might Population Increase in the Future Chapter 2 Key Issue 4 Why Might Population Increase in the Future

Big Question Who is Thomas Malthus and what does his theory predict will happen to the human population? What solutions does he offer? Describe two countries that are taking steps to avoid Malthus’s prediction and describe what they are doing? How are improved education and health care as well as contraception help to reduce birth rates?

Key Terms Thomas Malthus Malthusian Trap Stage 5 of the DTM One-Child Policy Sterilization Stage 5 of the Epidemiologic Transition

Population and Resources English economist Thomas Malthus was one of the first to claim that the Earth’s population increase was outpacing the food supply In 1798, Malthus claimed that population growth would press against available resources unless “moral restraint” produced lower CBRs or unless disease, famine, war, or other disasters produced higher CDRs

Population and Resources The Malthusian Theory is very important today as our population continues to grow rapidly The fear is that humanity will reach a point where there are too many people and not enough resources (known as the Malthusian Trap) At that point war, famine, and disease would become widespread and the crude death rate of the world would increase dramatically

Population and Resources Neo-Malthusians and critics of the Malthusian Theory are debating whether or not the trap is coming (see P. 67) The future of humanity depends on our population growth and availability of resources

Population Futures The future of our population is unknown but demographers believe there is a stage 5 of the Demographic Transition Model This stage is characterized by low CBR, increasing CDR, and negative NIR…causing population to decline Countries such as Russia, Japan, and Germany are in this stage

Population Futures China and India make up 1/3 of the planet’s population Both countries have tried implementing government policies to lower their NIR

Population Futures China implemented a one-child policy in 1980 which required parents to apply for a permit to have a child and they received benefits for only having one Parents were taxed heavily for breaking that promise of having more than one. Also under this policy, contraceptives were free, abortions were legal, and sterilization was encouraged This policy ended in 2015 but brought down China’s NIR from 26 to 5

Population Futures India began its national family- planning program in 1952 by opening clinics that provided info about alternative birth control methods, distributed free or low-cost birth control, and legalized abortions In the 1970s, camps were setup that offered sterilization which made people incapable of reproduction Sterilization continues today in India and the government’s efforts have dropped India’s CBR from 34 to 21 and natural increase rate from 22 to 12

Population Futures Even with these policies, India still adds 12 million more people each year than China does and is expected to overtake China as the world’s most populous country by 2030

Epidemiologic Futures Stage 5 of the Demographic Transition Model leads to more elderly people and a higher CDR but stage 5 of the epidemiologic transition is brought about by the reemergence of infectious diseases Some diseases thought to be eradicated return during this stage and new ones are introduced

Epidemiologic Futures Three reasons help explain the possible emergence of a stage 5 of the epidemiologic transition: evolution, poverty, and increased connections. Evolution - Infectious diseases could return because the microbes have evolved to be resistant to drugs and insecticides. Some diseases such as malaria have developed new strains that cannot be eliminated, leading to more deaths

Epidemiologic Futures Poverty – Diseases such as Tuberculosis (TB) are common in poor areas that have unsanitary conditions and less access to health care. This airborne disease get passed easily in overcrowded areas among people who aren’t able to get it treated Connections – Some diseases such as AIDS and Ebola are transferred through relocation diffusion and passed from person to person. These diseases cause many complications as the world is becoming more globalized

Family Futures CBR has dropped between 1990 and 2015 from 27 to 20 worldwide Two strategies have been successful in reducing birth rates: Education and Health Care Better education allows women to be in school and gain economic skills for employment as well as gain knowledge about their reproductive rights Better health care leads to less infant deaths and reduces number of births

Family Futures Contraception In developing countries, the demand for contraception is higher than the supply. Organizations have helped to quickly and cheaply deliver contraception into those countries Various types of contraception are available in developing countries but the use of them varies on the region (see figures 2-47 & 2-48 on P. 73)

Big Question & Key Terms Who is Thomas Malthus and what does his theory predict will happen to the human population? What solutions does he offer? Describe two countries that are taking steps to avoid Malthus’s prediction and describe what they are doing? How are improved education and health care as well as contraception help to reduce birth rates? Thomas Malthus Malthusian Trap Stage 5 of the DTM One-Child Policy Sterilization Stage 5 of the Epidemiologic Transition