The European Union and Brexit The Big Negotiation Official Start – 2017?

Who Am I? I am a Business Studies lecturer My major was/is Marketing Peter Rumble November 2016 Who Am I? I am a Business Studies lecturer My major was/is Marketing I lecture here on Marketing Communications, Behavioral Studies in Marketing, and Economics. Age? Studied in pre-Internet era… Perhaps more later Some introductory remarks Perhaps more later Peter Rumble HAUT November 2016 HAUT

The European Union What is it? Why it was created? Peter Rumble November 2016 The European Union What is it? Why it was created? What is happening now – 2016 What is it Why it was created What is happening now – 2016 Peter Rumble HAUT November 2016 HAUT

Peter Rumble November 2016 What is It? The European Union (EU) is a collection of 28 countries in Europe, who have joined together to create a market place – a Single Market, for goods and services. A key element is the fact that as well as the free movement of goods and services there is the free movement of capital and labour. Capital and labour in other words, Investment and Workers. The European Union (EU) is a collection of 28 countries in Europe who have joined together to create a market place – a Single Market, for goods and services. A key element is the fact that as well as the free movement of goods and services there is the free movement of capital and labour Capital and labour in other words Investment and Workers. Peter Rumble HAUT November 2016 HAUT

The Geography of the EU Peter Rumble November 2016 Countries large and small Including one that isn’t mentioned – the Island of Malta Peter Rumble HAUT November 2016 HAUT

The Member Countries They range from large to small land areas Peter Rumble November 2016 The Member Countries They range from large to small land areas They range from large to small in population terms Germany = 81.5 million Malta = 0.4 million They have many different languages From those with hot sunny climates to those with cooler/ darker climates A real variety!!! ----- Meeting Notes (02/11/16 10:34) ----- Malta 425,000 people, Peter Rumble HAUT November 2016 HAUT

Facts and Figures for the European Union Peter Rumble November 2016 Facts and Figures for the European Union 28 Countries 23 Languages Population 2015 508 millions Land mass 4,324,782 square kilometres GDP $14.712 Trillion GDP per capita $28,213 Internet Top Level Domain: .eu ----- Meeting Notes (02/11/16 10:36) ----- Official language is English Land mass of United States is 9.8 million sq kms China is 9.6 million sq kms Peter Rumble HAUT November 2016 HAUT

Peter Rumble November 2016 The History 1957 Formal agreement between ‘founder’ members Treaty of Rome 6 countries 1973 UK and two others joined 1993 Renamed the European Union 2002 Introduction of the Euro 2016 UK decides to leave after 43 years!! 2017 starting to pack… It is important to understand cultural factors such as history in doing business. Now the member countries work together not only in politics and economy (coal, steel and trade), but also in money, justice (laws), and foreign affairs. With the Schengen Agreement, 22 member countries of the EU opened their borders to each other, so people can now travel from one country to the other without a passport or identity card. Now already 16 member countries have replaced their national currencies with the euro. 10 new countries became members of the EU in 2004, 2 more became members in 2007, and 1 more in 2013. Today there are 28 member countries altogether. Peter Rumble HAUT November 2016 HAUT

There is a Common* Goal To understand this we must look at the reasons why the European Union was created * Common sums it up – it is often known as the Common Market Peter Rumble HAUT November 2016

Reasons for the EU The main reasons why European countries came together are political and economic: The need to prevent another European war after World War I and World War II The need to respect human rights Rule of law and democracy More affirmed by Council of Europe The need to have a common economic area Peter Rumble HAUT November 2016

Britain Decides to Leave! Peter Rumble November 2016 Britain Decides to Leave! Britain has 65 million people out of 508 million It is over 10 per cent of the EU 5th Largest economy in the world It will have a big impact ----- Meeting Notes (02/11/16 10:45) ----- Big impaCT REGIONALLY IN EUROPE AND GLOBALLY Peter Rumble HAUT November 2016 HAUT

Why is the United Kingdom Leaving? The people have voted 52% in favour (48% against) Britain does not like the free movement of labour = immigration… It is a small island! Peter Rumble HAUT November 2016

How is the United Kingdom Going to Leave? In most organisations there are rules The EU is no exception The procedure for exit is summed up in Article 50 Britain does not really have a plan BR EXIT Peter Rumble HAUT November 2016

Article 50 Designed to ensure that should a member state decide to leave it will have minimal disruption on the other members and the well being of the organisation… Peter Rumble HAUT November 2016

The Negotiation Process Peter Rumble November 2016 The Negotiation Process There will be a very intensive and long drawn out negotiation There will be period of uncertainty Rate of exchange Pound versus Dollar has fallen Bad for business planning Lots of aspects to be considered Lots of ‘water under the bridge’ 40+ years of laws and regulation making… There will be period of uncertainty Lots of aspects to be considered For example… Lots of “water under the bridge” 40 plus years of common activity.. Peter Rumble HAUT November 2016 HAUT

8 Key Elements of Successful Negotiation Peter Rumble November 2016 8 Key Elements of Successful Negotiation Goals The end game for you and the other party Trades What can you yield up? Alternatives to not reaching an agreement? History Previous events Expected outcomes Based on previous negotiations The consequences of winning/losing Power balance Possible solutions Goals: what do you want to get out of the negotiation? What do you think the other person wants? Trades: What do you and the other person have that you can trade? What do you each have that the other wants? What are you each comfortable giving away? Alternatives: if you don't reach agreement with the other person, what alternatives do you have? Are these good or bad? How much does it matter if you do not reach agreement? Does failure to reach an agreement cut you out of future opportunities? And what alternatives might the other person have? Relationships: what is the history of the relationship? Could or should this history impact the negotiation? Will there be any hidden issues that may influence the negotiation? How will you handle these? Expected outcomes: what outcome will people be expecting from this negotiation? What has the outcome been in the past, and what precedents have been set? The consequences: what are the consequences for you of winning or losing this negotiation? What are the consequences for the other person? Power: who has what power in the relationship? Who controls resources? Who stands to lose the most if agreement isn't reached? What power does the other person have to deliver what you hope for? Possible solutions: based on all of the considerations, what possible compromises might there be? Peter Rumble HAUT November 2016 HAUT

Successful Negotiation Peter Rumble November 2016 Successful Negotiation Clear and open discussion Willingness to compromise Fallback situation Consider everyone’s needs and objectives Aim is to have a WIN WIN conclusion No loss of face… Clear and open discussion Willingness to compromise Aim is to have a WIN WIN conclusion Everyone wants to have the best solution for them! But the best solution is for everyone to be happy. Compromise and respect is needed Peter Rumble HAUT November 2016 HAUT

The Future?? .这句话的中文原句是哪句 May you live in interesting times Peter Rumble HAUT November 2016

Thank you listening Peter Rumble HAUT November 2016