Trends and Forecasting of Tourism: Where we’re at. Where we’re going? Sponsored by Moderator: Kate Fox, Executive Director, Destination Salem Panelists: Kelsey Waite, Business Development Executive, Destinations – STR Tony D’Agostino, Research Director, Massachusetts Office of Travel & Tourism  

Who is considered a traveler??? One who travels 50 or more miles one way from his/her home or stays overnight (paid) A TRAVELER ….count as Volume v. count as Spending

Economic Impact of Travel to MA, CY2015

Historic Direct Spending in Mass, CYs 2000-2015 Travel Price Inflation and Population growth

Ranking of States by Economic Impact, 2014 $$ Millions California 124,193.5 Florida 85,274.6 Texas 65,960.7 New York 65,334.1 Illinois 36,345.9 Nevada 33,518.7 Georgia 26,656.1 Pennsylvania 24,442.5 Virginia 22,913.6 North Carolina 22,148.6 Hawaii 20,803.9 New Jersey 20,414.6 Massachusetts (13th) 19,500.7

Travel Spending by Domestic/Int’l and Sub-Industry 3rd Largest ???? 2015 Travel Expenditures Domestic   International Total ($ Millions) % of total  % of Total  Public Transportation $5,693.7 32.6% $305.3 11.1% $5,999.3 Auto Transportation $2,271.2 13.0% $37.7 1.4% $2,309.1 Lodging $3,934.2 22.5% $1,059.4 38.5% $4,993.9 Foodservice $3,495.1 20.0% $529.4 19.3% $4,024.8 Entertainment & Recreation 991.8 5.7% $210.5 7.7% $1,202.3 General Retail Trade 1,098.7 6.3% $606.1 22.1% $1,704.9 $17,484.7 $2,748.5 $20,234.3

Jobs Supported by Sub Industries total 135,000! Full, part, seasonal jobs

October is Strongest Month Monthly KPI’s – Essex County, MA Jan – Dec 2016 Month with the largest

Essex County, MA - Key Statistics YTD December 2016 % Change Hotels 61 Room Supply 2 mil 1.3% Room Demand 1.4 mil -1.9% Occupancy 68% -3.1% ADR $118.85 3.7% RevPAR $80.85 0.4% Room Revenue $162.5 mil 1.7%

Look into Haunted Happening & Topsfield Fair

October Rooms Sold and Rooms Revenue October 2010-2016 Essex County, MA

Topsfield Fair Occupancy for First Weekend in October – 2nd Weekend Essex County, MA

Group Business

Essex County, MA Monthly Group Occupancy 2016

Essex County, MA Monthly Group Occupancy 2010 Through 2016

Essex County, MA Actual ADR ($) by Customer Segment Year End 2010 - 2016

Competitive Overview

North of Boston – Higher than Total US 2016 Year End Occupancy Essex County, MA – Boston, MA Market – Cape Cod/SE Mass Tract – Plymouth County, MA – Total US

Lowest ADR for Essex County 2016 Year End ADR Essex County, MA – Boston, MA Market – Cape Cod/SE Mass Tract – Plymouth County, MA – Total US

RevPAR is keeping up with Total US 2016 Year End RevPAR Essex County, MA – Boston, MA Market – Cape Cod/SE Mass Tract – Plymouth County, MA – Total US

Airbnb

US Hotel and Airbnb ADR July 2016, 12-Month Moving Average

Airbnb’s Share of Total Supply and Demand (Hotels + Airbnb) July 2016, 12-Month Moving Average

Forecast 2016, 2017 and 2018

Massachusetts's Market Share of all U. S Massachusetts's Market Share of all U.S. Domestic Travel Expenditures , 2000 - 2015 Loss M/S = Lost $$

Massachusetts's Market Share of U. S Massachusetts's Market Share of U.S. International Travel Expenditures , 2000-2015 Loss M/S= Lost $$

Mass …other travel related data, 2016 v. 2015 Mass STATE Rooms Occupancy Collections… +4.0% Mass LOCAL Rooms Occupancy Collections… +4.3% Mass STATE MEALS …………………………………….. +5.9% Mass LOCAL MEALS…………………………………….. +8.0% LIA International A/D………………………………..… +19.0% LIA Domestic A/D……………………..………………… +6.4%

Massachusetts and U.S. …volume data , 2016 Domestic Volume to MA through July, 2016 Up 3% International Volume to U.S. through July, 2016 Total International …Down 2.0% Canada …Down 6.7% Western Europe …Down 8.7%

Outlook Supply Demand Occupancy ADR RevPAR Boston, MA – Market Level Key Performance Indicator Outlook (% Change vs. Prior Year) 2017F – 2018F Outlook 2017 Forecast 2018 Supply 1.7% 2.9% Demand 1.6% 2.5% Occupancy -0.2% -0.4% ADR 2.7% RevPAR 2.3% Also expecting Revenue to increase 4.3% in 2017, and 5.3% in 2018.

The End !

EXTRA SLIDES

Haunted Happenings October Weekday and Weekend 2010 – 2016 Essex County, MA

Largest Lodging Companies by Rooms/Listings Less Unavailable, Shared Rooms, Private Rooms and Large Listings

Incoming Properties Essex County, MA Pipeline as of January 2017 Lexington Collection Hotel Haverhill 60 Rooms Unnamed Hotel Salem 100 Rooms Unnamed Boutique Hotel Newburyport 86 Rooms Salem Waterfront Hotel Conference Center 32 Rooms Hampton Inn Salem 112 Rooms Open Date: May 2018

2017 Year End RevPAR Forecast Top 25 US Markets, Nov 2016 Forecast (Markets sorted alphabetically) Houston, TX Anaheim-Santa Ana, CA   Miami-Hialeah, FL Atlanta, GA New York, NY Boston, MA Chicago, IL Dallas, TX Denver, CO Detroit, MI Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI Nashville, TN New Orleans, LA Norfolk-Virginia Beach, VA Oahu Island, HI Orlando, FL Philadelphia, PA-NJ Phoenix, AZ San Diego, CA San Francisco/San Mateo, CA Seattle, WA St. Louis, MO-IL Tampa, FL Washington, D.C.