Analytical Methods Chapter 6 ©2013, Taylor & Francis

Introduction Thompson says that for analysts to exhibit analytical rigor, they should: Make accurate judgments Be clear Be insightful, timely and relevant Highlight trends over time (be consistent) Today great emphasis is placed on three key areas: Critical Thinking Collaboration Structured Analytical Techniques ©2013, Taylor & Francis

Critical Thinking That mode of thinking — about any subject, content, or problem — in which the thinker improves the quality of his or her thinking by skillfully analyzing, assessing, and reconstructing it. It cannot be developed overnight The DIA’s “Select Intellectual Standards” ©2013, Taylor & Francis

Collaboration The ODNI has committed itself to developing a “responsibility to provide” culture rather than one based on “need to know” Intellipedia A classified, collaborative tool based on Internet and wiki technology ©2013, Taylor & Francis

Structured Analytical Techniques Organized, explicit methods for analyzing information Key Assumptions Check Articulating and reviewing key assumptions throughout the analytical process Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) Considering a wide range of possible hypotheses rather than merely the favorite Scenarios Considering many possible futures ©2013, Taylor & Francis

Structured Analytical Techniques Contrarian Methods Forces people to consider possibilities that, up to that point, might have been rejected; causes individuals to modify their positions once other lines of thought are considered. Devil’s advocacy Someone who argues a point he may not believe in strictly for the sake of argument Team A/Team B Each side of an argument drafts up an analysis in which each group puts forth its strongest arguments for why its position is correct High-Impact/Low-Probability Assesses possible events that have a low probability of occurring but would be catastrophic if they did ©2013, Taylor & Francis

Analytical Software Analysts use specially designed programs to assist them with their difficult and complex duties i2 Visual Analytics Palantir ©2013, Taylor & Francis

Conclusion Most intelligence failures have been failures of analysis The IC today realizes that it has to do a better job of analyzing the information With hard work, collaboration, and information sharing, it is possible to improve the quality of analytical products We can expect to see the continued development and testing of methods as well as their use in the IC. ©2013, Taylor & Francis