Developing Political Strategies - Nelson Mandela - chapter 10

PAF 101 Module 5, Lecture 5 “There is nothing more difficult to carry out, nor more doubtful of success, nor more dangerous to handle, than to initiate a new order of things.” Why is it so hard to change things? Forces of stability are always more powerful than the forces of change. People with money do not want change. ~Niccolo Machiavelli

Choosing A Player Issue Position Firm Priority High Power High With which to develop a strategy Issue Position Firm Priority High Power High Note: Look at 10.1

Players to Target With Your Strategy Lowest issue position (best to start with) Lowest priority Highest power Note: Look at 10.3 WRC Example

Thinking About Strategies Making Solid Arguments Add or Delete Players Changing Issue Position Changing Power Changing Priorities Putting it Together Be careful with “arguments” point on slide-remind students that they can’t use arguments as a strategy in their module

1.Compromise is the act of moving towards each other. Key Strategies for Changing Issue Position 1.Compromise is the act of moving towards each other. 2. Horse-trading is the act of back scratching. In speaking about compromise, I want to talk about one of the greatest leaders in this century, Nelson Mandela

Who is the greatest change agent of the 21st century?            

Facts About South Africa Population About 13% White, 75% Black, 9% Mixed, and 3% Indian 16th Century Dutch Colonize and Become Afrikaners 1910 - British Takeover After Beating Up Afrikaners 1948 - National Party Establishes Apartheid As Law 1950’s-1990’s - Organized and Violent Opposition 1994 - Multi-Racial Regime Headed By Mandela Takes Power

Facts about Mandela Joins African National Congress (ANC) in 1942 Jailed in 1963 Released in 1990 Becomes President in 1994

98/373= 26% Figure 1: 1986 Prince Chart Probability of Implementation: “One person, one vote” in South Africa” Figure 1: 1986 Prince Chart Player Issue Position Power Priority Prince ANC +5 1 5 +25 Communist Party Pan African Congress +2 2 +4 Liberal Party National Party -4 -100 Conservative Parties -5 3 -75 West and Int’l Business +3 +9 Military 4 Inkatha +10 One man, one vote. A little confusing. Who are these people? Explain. Probability of Implementation: 98/373= 26%

Facts About South Africa Major challenges were overcome by threats, promises, horse trading, and compromise Cohesion of “friends” – ANC, PAC, Lib. Party, Communist Party, Inkatha, International Business and Most Countries Building Trust with “enemies” – National Party, Military, Conservative Parties Note: Prospect of better business opportunities combines with threat of civil war and loss of political power worked enough to maintain discipline in the ANC without it losing power to other groups. Prospects of better business and less violence plus promise that the ANC could maintain discipline worked enough to allow DeKlerk to maneuver Conservative parties in. British culture of compromise, with Afrikaner demand for order and business and African and Asian cultures that value community served as an underlying glue.

Facts About South Africa Decline of South African Economy Building of International Pressure Fall of Soviet Union Timing is everything, as in the case of all change

Figure 3: Prince Political Map “One person, one vote in South Africa” Figure 3: Prince Political Map Issue Position X ANC, Communistic Party, Liberal Party X (ANC Only) +5 +4 +3 X West and Int’l Business x +2 X Pan African Congress X Inkatha X X +1 -1 -2 -3 -4 National Party X -5 X Conservative Parties X Military 5 10 15 20 25 Power x Priority

238/313= 76% Figure 2: 1990 Prince Chart “One person, one vote in South Africa” Figure 2: 1990 Prince Chart Player Issue Position Power Priority Prince ANC +5 3 5 +75 Communist Party 1 +25 Pan African Congress +2 2 +4 Liberal Party National Party +50 Conservative Parties -5 -75 West and Int’l Business +3 +9 Military +1 4 +20 Inkatha +30 Probability of Implementation: 238/313= 76%

Lessons About Change Change is very slow and very hard Macro social, economic, and political trends have to be properly aligned Fear is the most powerful source of change, greed is the second most powerful Capacity for compromise comes from culture, circumstance, and leadership

Important Information! Exercise 10.5 is worth 40 points You will lose all points if you don’t submit your proposal on the website and attach the receipt. http://supadoc.syr.edu/paf101asp/finalReportMC.shtml You must also complete the post-test survey and attach it to your module, or you will lose points Pre/Post Evaluations - PAF 101 NO EXCUSES