The Rise of China and China-US Relations Introduction to International Relations Prof. Jaechun Kim

Background of the Issue The rise of China and the US strategic response Key to understanding the future of international relations in coming years! The recent US foreign policy has been predicated on China’s rise to super power status To prevent China from reaching hegemonic status in the region The US has put in great efforts… China’s foreign policy has become more assertive as well

President Xi – “New Great Power Relations (新型大國關係)”  G2 도광양회(韜光養晦: hide one’s ability and bide time - Deng)∙화평굴기(和平崛起: Peaceful rise - Hu)  유소작위(有所作爲: - Jiang)∙돌돌핍인(咄咄逼人: - Xi)

Is China Surpassing the US? Rise of China and ‘relative’ decline of the US 1990 – 2006: The US economy grew by 60% cf. China – 330% 2010 – China became number two economy in the world in terms of GDP 2014 – China's economy, when measured by purchasing power parity (PPP), surpassed that of the United States to become the world's largest

But the current international systems is ‘unipolar’ – the US remains the sole superpower Unipolar system is different from ‘hegemonic’ system The US no longer is a hegemonic state…

The US economic power… The US economy (GDP) is responsible for ¼ of the world and equal to sum of next 2~4 The US economy is about 2 times bigger than that of China 2013 the U.S. GDP was $16.72 trillion, whereas China's GDP equaled $9.33 trillion Per capita GDP is much bigger…In 2013, the average American was more than five times as wealthy than his Chinese counterpart Goldman Sachs predicts China’s economy will surpass that of the US in 2027 But not per capita GDP! Less regional disparities in terms of income

The US spends more than 40 percent of world’s R&D – cf The US spends more than 40 percent of world’s R&D – cf. about twice the size of China’s The US spends 7% of GDP on education – cf. China (2%); The US hosts 80% of world’s top 50 universities… (education) 40% of the OECD patent rights belong to the US; The US hosts the biggest IT industry and many other leading edge industries… quality matters… (technology and innovations) American economy has been in relative decline, but the US economic advantage will sustain longer than anticipated…! The US is a young country, China? (demographics) The impact of shale gas revolution? (resources)

The US military power Since 1996 China’s military spending has maintained two-digit growth rate; in 2009 China spent 2% of GDP on military (99 billion dollars) cf. the US spent 4.3% of GDP (6.7 trillion dollars) The US military spending > next 9 countries RMA  the US has state of the art military system! Not only conventional forces, but nuclear forces… The US has advantages!

The US has the strongest navy in history…; The US air power is unmatched… Military Projection Capabilities –The US is the only country that has military that they can project all around the world… China is unable to project air and naval power to key areas of interests, yet… China is not able to field high-tech military forces, yet…

The US is anticipated to maintain military advantage for a long time… Unipolar international system is here to stay… China is relying on ‘area denial capability’ in Asia and is increasing ‘asymmetric force’ – 2A/AD Ballistic missile or submarines to deny the US naval forces access to key posts in Asia Special operation forces…and technology to disable the US satellites and communications…

The Nature of G2 Cooperation and competition between the US and China cf. Cold War bipolarity Is China a revisionist country? China is status quo oriented…? China feels that core interests are threatened by the US dominant unipolar system...?

Rise of hegemon usually leads to wars Fatalistic view toward rising China… and also the competition – intention doesn’t matter! Rise of hegemon usually leads to wars Two tigers can’t share one mountain…. (一山不容兩虎) Power transition theory A big time competition between the US and China… China surpassing the US… Replacement process will be very conflictual…

Offensive realism (J. Mearsheimer) – states would feel most safe when they become hegemon… China will try hard to become the strongest country in the world Is it really inevitable?

The US Policy Response to the Rise of China The US strategy in the post-Cold War era Debate: Predominance… worth not candle (Jervis) vs. primacy matters (Huntington) Conclusion: Preserve unipolar moment! DPG for 1994-1999; QDR 1997, 2001; National Security Strategy of the US 2002  call for discouraging rise of hegemonic challenger… Mixture of realist and liberalist policies

Liberalist policies: policies of engagement Make China one of us! Transform China! Enmesh China in the global economy and institutional frameworks... China’s rise can be managed… cf. China will be a threat Economic interdependence Interdependence leads to peace

Realist policies: policy of containment Democratic peace Institutions Realist policies: policy of containment Use American military power Internal balancing

Mixture of both! Matter of degree, not kind! External balancing Offshore balancing – let Japan, S Korea, India and others balance off China! Realist policy response – based on American hard power cf. soft power – liberalist Mixture of both! Matter of degree, not kind! Congagement… hedging strategy

Democratic administrations – more emphasis on engagement cf Democratic administrations – more emphasis on engagement cf. Republican administrations – more emphasis on balancing… Clinton – Strategic partner Bush – Strategic competitor Obama – engagement  Pivot to Asia…  Rebalancing  Readjustment?

What would be the security implications of China’s rise to the region and also to the world? How do you predict the future of Sino-US relations?