2005 Water Resources Outlook for Idaho and the Western U.S.

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Presentation transcript:

2005 Water Resources Outlook for Idaho and the Western U.S. JISAO Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington October, 2004 http://www.hydro.washington.edu/Lettenmaier/Presentations/2004/hamlet_2005_forecast_oct_2004.ppt Alan F. Hamlet Andy Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier

Background

Background: Forecast System Schematic NCDC met. station obs. up to 2-4 months from current local scale (1/8 degree) weather inputs soil moisture snowpack Hydrologic model spin up SNOTEL Update streamflow, soil moisture, snow water equivalent, runoff 25th Day, Month 0 1-2 years back LDAS/other real-time met. forcings for spin-up gap Hydrologic forecast simulation Month 6 - 12 INITIAL STATE SNOTEL / MODIS* Update ensemble forecasts ESP traces (40) CPC-based outlook (13) NCEP GSM ensemble (20) NSIPP-1 ensemble (9) * experimental, not yet in real-time product

Seasonal Climate Forecast Data Sources ESP ENSO/PDO ENSO CPC Official Outlooks Seasonal Forecast Model (SFM) CAS OCN SMLR CCA CA NSIPP-1 dynamical model VIC Hydrology Model NOAA NASA UW

Background: Hydrology Model

Background: Estimating Initial Conditions SNOTEL assimilation Assimilation Method weight station OBS’ influence over VIC cell based on distance and elevation difference number of stations influencing a given cell depends on specified influence distances spatial weighting function elevation weighting function SNOTEL/ASP VIC cell distances “fit”: OBS weighting increased throughout season OBS anomalies applied to VIC long term means, combined with VIC-simulated SWE adjustment specific to each VIC snow band important point(s): the approach attempts to make use of forecast skill from 2 sources: better understanding of synoptic scale teleconnections and the effects of persistence in SSTs on regional climate, as reproduced in coupled ocean-atmosphere models; the macroscale hydrologic model yields an improved ability to model the persistence in hydrologic states at the regional scale (more compatible with climate model scales than prior hydrologic modeling). Climate forecasts with monthly and seasonal horizons are now operationally available, and if they can be translated to streamflow, then they may be useful for water management.

snow cover (MODIS) assimilation (Snake R. trial) Framework: Estimating Initial Conditions snow cover (MODIS) assimilation (Snake R. trial) Snowcover BEFORE update Snowcover AFTER update MODIS update for April 1, 2004 Forecast snow added removed

Background: Streamflow Forecast Locations California Columbia R. basin in development: Colorado R., Upper Rio Grande Snake R. basin

Linkage to Reservoir Models Streamflow Forecast Bias Correction Storage Ensemble Reservoir Model Observed Reservoir Contents Demand Scenarios

ColSim Storage Forecast

Recap of Water Year 2004

Initial Conditions for Winter 2003-04 Soil Moisture and Snow Water Equivalent (SWE)

Initial Conditions for Winter 2003-04 Soil Moisture and Snow Water Equivalent (SWE)

Initial Conditions for Winter 2003-04 Soil Moisture and Snow Water Equivalent (SWE)

Initial Conditions for Winter 2003-04 Soil Moisture and Snow Water Equivalent (SWE)

Initial Conditions for Winter 2003-04 Soil Moisture and Snow Water Equivalent (SWE)

Winter 2003-04: PNW streamflow By Fall, slightly low flows were anticipated By winter, moderate deficits were forecasted

Winter 2003-04: seasonal volume forecasts Comparison with RFC forecast for Columbia River at the Dalles, OR UW forecasts made on 25th of each month RFC forecasts made several times monthly: 1st, mid-month, late (UW’s ESP unconditional and CPC forecasts shown) UW RFC

Last winter: volume forecasts for a sample of PNW locations

Last winter: volume forecasts for a sample of PNW locations

Last winter: volume forecasts for a sample of PNW locations

Last winter: volume forecasts for a sample of PNW locations

Last winter: volume forecasts for a sample of PNW locations

Last winter: volume forecasts for a sample of PNW locations

Last winter: volume forecasts for a sample of PNW locations

Evaluation of Last Year’s ColSim Storage Forecast Obs.Sys Storage Sept 15, 2004

System Storage Forecast from SnakeSim: Jackson Lake Palisades Island Park Ririe American Falls Lake Walcott 11 ENSO neutral years (reshuffled 3 times) Random historic demand scenarios Full Pool Active Reservoir Storage (kaf) Obs. Storage Sept 30, 2004 Green = ensemble mean

Outlook for Water Year 2005

Winter Climate Forecasts Dominate Hydrologic State Variables Dominate April 1 SWE (mm) Winter Climate Forecasts Dominate Hydrologic State Variables Dominate June December March Range =16.7% of ensemble summer mean

Initial Soil Moisture Conditions

Natural Flows at Milner 1928-1989

Simulated Natural Flow at Milner (Oct ESP Nino3.4 between +0.2 and +1.2)

Upper Snake Storage Climatology Historic water years 1928-1992 Storage Sept 30, 2004

System Storage Forecast from SnakeSim: Jackson Lake Palisades Island Park Ririe American Falls Lake Walcott Nino3.4 anomaly between 0.2 and 1.2 C Demand aligned with water cond. October 1 Spin Up Active Reservoir Storage (kaf)

Impacts of the West-Wide Drought on the Pacific Northwest

1930s Drought Soil Moisture Soil moisture-defined drought 80 Percent severity 100 SAD curve to left. To right, raw percent severity (below 80% is white) on top panel, drought classifications on bottom panel. Consistently severe for areas up to ~ 5 km^2 up to 36 month duration. At this point areas are encompassing cells that only experience drought for a few of the 36+ months. Figure courtesy of Elizabeth Clark and Kostas Andreadis, UW

Current Drought Soil Moisture Soil moisture-defined drought 80 Percent severity 100 Severity for longer duration drops quickly with area, while remaining durations are fairly consistent in severity up to ~ 3.5 million km^2. Figure courtesy of Elizabeth Clark and Kostas Andreadis, UW

Concluding Remarks Soil moistures in Oct, 2004 are wetter overall in comparison with Oct, 2003. Drought risks appear to be about the same as last year based on likely mid-winter Nino3.4 anomalies, and the highest likelihood is for flows clustered around normal conditions (very high and very low flows unlikely). However, one very high and one very low flow year have both occurred for this range of Nino3.4 anomalies, so both extremes cannot be ruled out. The wild card is the West-wide drought. If the large scale climate anomaly that has impacted precipitation over the west continues to impinge on southern Idaho, analogue years based on Nino3.4 anomalies may not be very representative. Will the drought continue, and will it impact Idaho if it does?