Copenhagen Climate Congress “Advancing human security through knowledge-based approaches to reducing vulnerability and environmental risks“ Copenhagen Climate Congress 10-12 March 2009 warner@ehs.unu.edu 1 1 1 1

Migration: Adaptation to climate change or failure to adapt? Findings from a global empirical study Dr. Koko Warner Section Head, Environmental Migration and Adaptation UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany Copenhagen Climate Congress 10-12 March 2009 warner@ehs.unu.edu

Does climate change affect human mobility including migration? 2 issues on global agenda, discussed separately Climate change and environmental degradation Migration Are they linked? Yes…the key is to understand how. How many will migrate? Where are they coming from? Where are they heading to? Present scientific and political perceptions of the climate change & human security challenge Less developed regions are especially vulnerable to impacts of environmental change (IPCC 4th Comprehensive Report 2007) „Climate change has serious implications on international peace and security, including migration.“ (UN General Assembly Thematic Debate, 11-12 Feb. 2008) Copenhagen Climate Congress 10-12 March 2009 warner@ehs.unu.edu

Climate change and human movement: Framing the issue How many environmentally induced migrants? Today: 24 million environmentally induced migrants worldwide (UNHCR 2002). By 2010: 50 million (Myers 2005) By 2050: Estimates vary widely, 200 million becoming a widely cited estimate (IOM 2008) After 2050: Up to 700 million environmental migrants (Christian Aid 2007) Environmental factors are part of complex patterns of multiple causality — closely linked to economic, social and political factors in driving migration Significant uncertainties warrant more research! Copenhagen Climate Congress 10-12 March 2009 warner@ehs.unu.edu

Sea level rise of 1 meter & population distribution Copenhagen Climate Congress 10-12 March 2009 warner@ehs.unu.edu

Environmental change & migration: Hotspots & Trajectories(WGBU 2007) Is this enough information to assess climate change & migration / displacement? How many environmentally induced migrants? Today: 24 million environmentally induced migrants worldwide (UNHCR 2002). By 2010: 50 million (Myers 2005) By 2050: Estimates vary widely, 200 million becoming a widely cited estimate (IOM 2008) After 2050: Up to 700 million environmental migrants (Christian Aid 2007) Main trajectories Copenhagen Climate Congress 10-12 March 2009 Source: WGBU 2007 (modified) warner@ehs.unu.edu

Copenhagen Climate Congress Empirical research Need for empirical research prompted European Commission to sponsor a first-time ever global scoping study of environmental change and forced migration scenarios ( , www.each-for.eu) 23 case studies investigate migrant characteristics and origins, links with environmental change and coping capacity to climate change Copenhagen Climate Congress 10-12 March 2009 warner@ehs.unu.edu

Copenhagen Climate Congress 23 cases worldwide investigating environmentally induced migration, n = 1035 Copenhagen Climate Congress 10-12 March 2009 warner@ehs.unu.edu

Copenhagen Climate Congress Empirical findings Links with environmental change: Environmental factors currently contribute to migration Livelihoods dependent on environment most sensitive to climate changes No ‘one-size-fits-all’ model of environmental migration Border between forced and voluntary migration increasingly blurred Mass migration triggered by env. reasons could occur when ecosystems change irreversibly (thresholds passed) Migrant characteristics: Vulnerability profile of environmentally induced migrants Younger, older, gendered, poorer people more sensitive to environmental change (constrained coping options) – how far can they afford to move? Internal migration and resettlement Coping capacity vis-a-vis climate change Surveys in all case study countries indicated that households expect migration will become an option in the future if environmental conditions worsen Migration both a coping strategy and flight, adaptation and extreme adaptation „Migration as adaptation“ option politically challenging „Migration as extreme adaptation“ challenges humanitarian response capacity Copenhagen Climate Congress 10-12 March 2009 warner@ehs.unu.edu

Adaptation or Failure to Adapt? Current policy discourse on CC and migration Genuine concern about the human consequences Also driven by underlying institutional interests Empirical evidence Relationships between environmental change and migration, variety of patterns and contexts Knowledge base remains limited, more questions than answers Indicators of adaptation or failure to adapt: Adaptation: orderly, peaceful, new livelihoods possible, environmental conditions in receiving areas remain stable Failure to adapt: chaotic, conflictual, humanitarian crisis, worsening environmental conditions Governance and management of migration key System transformation (climate change, societal, technological, economic, political) Existing strategies will work partially, but new governance modes also needed Empirical evidence has begun to be gathered about the relationships between environmental change and migration, yielding rich insights about the variety of patterns and contexts of the phenomena today. Yet the knowledge base remains so limited as to raise more questions than answers. The current discourse is marked by genuine concern about the human consequences as well as the implications for climate change adaptation, but is driven in part by underlying interests that may seek to reinforce current institutional arrangements. To gain more traction about the governance implications, a decision tree aids in the conceptualization of the range of expressions of environmentally induced migration. In the context of system transformation (climate change, societal, technological, economic, political) existing strategies will work, in part at least, for the future situation. Yet the analysis suggests that new governance modes are needed. The complexity of the situation calls for a balanced, multi-pronged approach that allows stakeholders a role in shaping new governance directions. A five-pronged approach provides a point of departure for improving scientific understanding, raising public awareness from local to international levels, changing institutions, improving humanitarian response, and shaping legislative and legal frameworks to address the multicausal and complex challenge of environmentally induced migration. Copenhagen Climate Congress 10-12 March 2009 warner@ehs.unu.edu

Copenhagen Climate Congress Thank you! Dr. Koko Warner warner@ehs.unu.edu Tel: +49 228 815 0226 www.ehs.unu.edu Copenhagen Climate Congress 10-12 March 2009 warner@ehs.unu.edu

Spectrum of Environmentally Induced Migration Rapid Onset Hazards (e.g. Floods, Earthquakes) Loss of Ecosystem Services and Slow Onset Hazards Rapid and effective social, economic and physical recovery of impacted areas Migrant does not return to impacted area Slow and ineffective ENVIRONMENTALLY MOTIVATED MIGRANT FORCED ENVIRONMENTAL EMERGENCY Action of fleeing to save one’s life Person migrates away from impacted area Environmental reason for migration dominant subjectively: reoccurring droughts, sea-level rise Environmental reason for migration decision not dominant subjectively NOT AN Accelerated degradation of ecosystems e.g. pollution events, rapid soil erosion Gradual degradation e.g. land degradation, loss of biodiversity, Alternative livelihood was possible in was possible in impacted area but required significant time No alternative livelihood was possible in impacted area Livelihoods Impacted Land/home destroyed, lost and/or unsafe Impacted area no longer exists EVENT or STRESS Copenhagen Climate Congress 10-12 March 2009 Source: Renaud et al. 2009 warner@ehs.unu.edu

What is environmentally induced migration? No agreed international definition of “environmental migration” Working definition “Environmental migrants are persons or groups of persons who, for compelling reasons of sudden or progressive change in the environment that adversely affects their lives or living conditions, are obliged to leave their habitual homes, or choose to do so, either temporarily or permanently, and who move either within their country or abroad” (IOM 2007). This definition seeks to encompass population movement or displacement: Temporary or permanent; internal or cross-border Regardless of whether voluntary or involuntary Due to sudden or gradual environmental change Copenhagen Climate Congress 10-12 March 2009 warner@ehs.unu.edu