Water Security and Human Migration Mukand S. Babel Water Engineering and Management

Outlines Definitions Facts and figures Water security Migration Environmental migration Facts and figures Climate change-Water security-Migration nexus (CWM) Examples Voluntary migration: Water suitcase Environmental migration: Refugee crisis in Jordon CWM nexus and other securities: Horn of Africa Final reflections

Definition: Water security Many definitions exist and most have a certain sector bias The capacity of a population to safeguard sustainable access to adequate quantities of and acceptable quality water for sustaining livelihoods, human well-being, and socio-economic development, for ensuring protection against water-borne pollution and water-related disasters, and for preserving ecosystems in a climate of peace and political stability (UN Water) OECD: Water security is about learning to live with an acceptable level of water risk Key Dimensions of Water Security (Asian Water Development Outlook, 2016)

Definition: Human migration Migration: Movement by people from one place to another with the intentions of settling, temporarily or permanently in the new location External Internal (dominant) Forced Migration Human migration flows in which the movers have no choice but to relocate Temporary or permanent Voluntary Migration Human migration flows in which the movers responds to perceived opportunity, not forced In search of a better quality of life Migration – A change in residence that is intended to be permanent Immigration – the movement of non-native people into a country in order to settle there Emigration – To leave one country or region to settle in another; or to migrate away from ones native place

Definition: Environmental migration Environmental migrants are people who are forced to leave their home region due to sudden or long-term changes to their local environment These are changes which compromise their well-being or secure livelihood Factors influencing the risk of environmental migration (Döös, 1997)

Facts and figures 5 top global risks in terms of likelihood 5 top global risks in terms of impact Source: The Global Risk Report, 12th ed., 2017

Facts and figures 24.2 million new displacements by disasters in 2016 South and East Asia are the most affected regions China, India and Philippines have the highest absolute numbers New displacements by conflicts and disasters in 2016 Source: Internal Displacement Monitoring Center (IDMC), 2017

New displacements by disasters by hazard category, 2008 to 2016 Facts and figures New displacements by disasters by hazard category, 2008 to 2016 Weather-related hazards, in particular storms brought on the majority of all new disaster displacements in 2016 Source: Internal Displacement Monitoring Center (IDMC), 2017

Climate change Climate change-Water Security-Migration (CWM) nexus Climate drivers of migration and displacement Droughts and changing rainfall Extreme weather events Rising sea levels, glacial retreat, and desertification – slow onset events Conflict and violence triggered by climate change Future Migration and displacement from climate change Short-term – Climate change is already fueling displacement 1.5°C Warming – Moderate, but manageable migration impact 2°C Warming – A new, hostile reality and significant migration 3°C WARMING – Catastrophic climate change forces people to flee 4°C Warming – Beyond adaptation into mass migration Source: CARE Denmark, 2016

CWM nexus By 2025, up to 2.4 billion people may be living in area subjected to periods of intense water scarcity, which may displace as many as 700 million by 2030 More than 40 million people face displacement from extreme events each year Under the BAU case, floods, droughts and hurricanes will push total number of permanently displaced people as high as 250 million between now and 2050s By 2050, 162 million people in Bangladesh, Egypt, China, India and other parts of the world including small island states will be vulnerable to sea level rise and another 50 million to desertification Source: CARE Denmark, 2016

CWM nexus SSA: Food production systems are increasingly at risk due to water scarcity, significant yield reduction already evident under 20C warming MENA: Impacted by temperature rise, desertification and dust storms, and population centers may become intolerable to humans SEA: Rural livelihoods will be impacted by the sea level rise. The displacement of impacted rural and coastal communities will bring pressures to the urban centers SA: Increasing tropical cyclone intensity, sea level rise, extreme precipitation will force people to leave their origin communities PI: At certain levels of sea level rise, some islands will cease to exist, entire counties will be forced to migrate and the international community will be confront what that means for sovereignty Source: CARE Denmark, 2016

CWM nexus Climate-driven water change, combined with rising global demand for freshwater (up by 55% by 2050), increases the risk of food insecurity, social instability, potentially violent conflict, and in turn, migration

CWM nexus Water Security Migration Climate Change Domestic Economic Urban Environmental Resilience to water-related disaster Water Security Migration Forced Temporary Permanent Voluntary Environmental Climate Change Lack of water security in the origin location/country creates human migration Extensive human migration also creates water insecurity in the destine location/country Climate change can accelerate migration as well as creates water insecurity

Voluntary migration: Water Suitcase Water suitcase increased from 321 m3/y in 1990 to 1367 m3/y in 2010 If the water suitcase exceeds the water footprint, migrations turn out to be detrimental to the water endowments of origin countries Challenging the common perception that migrations tend to relieve the pressure on the water resources of origin countries The Virtual Water Suitcase of Migrants (Metulini et al., 2016)

Syrian Refugee Crisis in Jordan Jordan is running out of water One of the driest countries of the world Due to aging infrastructure every year billions of liters of water is wasting (water to satisfy need of 2.6 million people, or more than 1/3 of Jordan’s current population Water crisis badly exacerbated by the increasing needs of refugees In 2016 600, 000 refugees pushed to Jordan App. 83% of Syrian refugees lives in cities and towns Source: MERCY CORPS, 2017

Horn of Africa Somalia: Seasonal rainfall 50% below average , 85% of cropland affected by drought Ethiopia: 25 – 85% of cropland got affected Kenya: Many parts of the country receive rainfall 50 – 75% below average Somalia: 3.2 million people are facing crisis Ethiopia: people receiving humanitarian assistance increased from 5.6 to 7.8 million in the first quarter of the year Kenya: 2.6 million people are in the need of assistance. Food insecurity forecasted to increase between 3 – 3.5 million Somalia: between Nov. 2016 – Jul 2017 761K IDPs due to drought Ethiopia: due to flood est. 500K IDPs, on going drought – 400K IDPs, 5, 163 new Somali refugee from January Kenya: 10, 772 new refugees from South Sudan since Jan 2017 Source: OCHA, 2017

Horn of Africa Somalia: No. of children projected to be acutely malnourished increased by 50% since the beginning of the year Ethiopia: Malnutrition rated are currently high following poor performing spring rains particularly in south-east Kenya: Nutrition survey conducted in June 2017 in Turkana indicate a deepening nutritional crisis compared to 5 months ago Somalia: 53, 015 cumulative cases of AWD/Cholera since the beginning of 2017 Ethiopia: AWD continues to reported but with a decreasing incident rate Kenya: There is an active Cholera outbreak and dengue fever outbreak; 17 cases of Measles also reports so far Source: OCHA, 2017

Final reflections Water security and migration quite complex Understanding them is a challenge Water security is not the only driver of migration Political/social tensions, transboundary relationships and existing poverty and inequality determine whether migration occurs Climate change simply aggravates the situation The impact of water variability and insecurity is so significant to a host of issues that any plan to tackle climate change, migration (and a host of other issues) without sustainable water management at its core, can only ever be that — a plan

Final reflections Water should be viewed as a connector It connects policy areas, economic sectors, ecosystems, and societies Its importance to both climate adaptation and mitigation cannot be underestimated, and makes it a key channel through which opportunities for cooperation can grow Migration is an important form of adaptation to climatic stresses that has occurred for millennia and continues to be practiced in many parts of the world today

Final reflections If I had an hour to solve a problem I’d spend fifty five minutes thinking about the problem and five minutes thinking about solutions …Albert Einstein

Thank you very much msbabel@ait.asia msbabel@gmail.com