Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 for Bulgaria Ilian Gospodinov National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology Bulgarian Academy of Sciences SEECOF-10, 20 November 2013, Belgrade

Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 for Bulgaria Verification Atlantic SST/NAO Overview of models Seasonal outlook for winter 2013/14 for Bulgaria and the SEECOF region

Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 for Bulgaria +2  warm +1  warm or normal  0 normal  -1 cold or normal -2  cold +2  wet +1  wet or normal  0 normal  -1 dry or normal  -2 dry   all categories no forecast Baseline period 1980-2009

Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 for Bulgaria Temperature Forecast Category Score Month-1 Month-2 Month-3 June 1 0.44 4 3 July 0.22 August -1 1.84 Summer 1.22 2 Skill Precipitation Forecast Category Score Month-1 Month-2 Month-3 June -1 1.28 2 July 1 0.25 3 4 August -1.38 Summer 0.30

Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 for Bulgaria Skill Temperature Forecast Index Score Month-1 Month-2 Month-3 December -1.29 2 January 1 0.73 4 3 February 1.47 Winter 0.69 Precipitation Forecast Index Score Month-1 Month-2 Month-3 December 1 1.63 3 January -1 0.59 February Winter 1.83

Winter Forecast NAO How Bulgarian winters relate to NAO. CD CW WD WW 25 50 NAO- CD CW WD WW NAO+ 25 17 33 NAO-

Winter Forecast ENSO/NAO How Bulgarian winters relate to ENSO La Nina CD CW WD WW NAO+ 32 18 NAO- El Nino CD CW WD WW NAO+ 18 32 NAO-

Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 North Atlantic SST

Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 North Atlantic SST

Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 North Atlantic SST

Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 North Atlantic SST

Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 North Atlantic SST

Winter 2013/14 (NAO & ENSO) NAO forecast – negative or unpredictable. ElNino/LaNina – indifferent phase.

Winter 2013/14 (NAO & ENSO) ENSO 0 CD CW WD WW NAO+ 25 17 33 NAO-

Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 Synthesis seasonal outlook for Dec2013-Feb2014 for Bulgaria Temperature EUROSIP ECMWF MetOffice NCEP IRI TCC BCC Syntesis 2014 DJF   *  Precipitation  *

Winter 2013/14 by Months Temperature NCEP TCC Ibimet BCC Synthesis December   January February Synthesis of monthly predictions for the winter months in Bulgaria Precipitation NCEP TCC Ibimet BCC Синтез December   January February

Winter 2013/14 Synthesis Temperature Month Winter December January   January February Precipitation Month Winter December   January February

Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 Southeast Europe and the Region NW Balk NE Balk Black Sea Caucasus SW Balk SE Balk W Cauc E Cauc Greece Aegean Sea NW Turk NE Turk SW Turk SE Turk Mediterranean Sea Israel

Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 Southeast Europe and the Region Temperature NWB NEB SWB SEB Greece NWT NET SWT SET WC EC Israel BCC -1 1 2 TCC ECMWF MetOffice   NCEP IRI Synthesis -0.2 0.2 0.0 0.7 EUROSIP

Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 Southeast Europe and the Region Precipitaton NWB NEB SWB SEB Greece NWT NET SWT SET WC EC Israel BCC -1 1 TCC ECMWF MetOffice   -2 NCEP Synthesis -0.4 -0.6 0.2 0.25 0.4 EUROSIP

Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 Southeast Europe and the Region Temperature -0.2 Black Sea Caucasus 0.2 Aegean Sea Mediterranean Sea Israel 0.7

Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 Southeast Europe and the Region Precipitation -0.4 -0.6 Black Sea Caucasus 0.2 -0.75 0.25 Aegean Sea 0.4 -1 Mediterranean Sea Israel

Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 Southeast Europe and the Region

Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 Southeast Europe and the Region

Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 Southeast Europe and the Region

Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 Southeast Europe and the Region

Seasonal Forecasting at the Bulgarian Weather Service Ilian Gospodinov Ilian.Gospodinov@meteo.bg National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology Bulgarian Academy of Sciences