Climate Change Implications on Military Activities

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Presentation transcript:

Climate Change Implications on Military Activities Major Stoyan STOYANOV E&T Branch, CMDR COE NATO SPS Program Advanced Research Workshop 05-07 July 2016, Sofia, BULGARIA

NATO Strategic Foresight Analysis * Analyzes challenges facing the Alliance in decades to come Sets 1) Long Term Military Transformation (LTMT) 2) Framework for Future Alliance Operations (FFAO) 3) NATO Defence Planning Process (NDPP) * SFA 2015 Update Report

NATO Strategic Foresight Analysis * Political Theme Human Theme Economics and Resources Theme Science and Technology Theme Environment Theme * SFA 2015 Update Report

Climate Change (CC) – Global Worming anthropogenic drivers extremely likely to be the dominant cause of the observed warming* serves as an accelerant of instability or a threat multiplier that makes already existing threats worse urgent and growing threat to national, regional and global security * IPCC 2014 Synthesis Report

Security Related Impacts Increasing in droughts More often inland flooding Declining snow and ice cover Extreme weather Sea-level rise and storm surges Geopolitical concerns

NATO Military Activities (Operations) * Military Assistance to Civil Authorities Support to an election process Training the local police, security forces and population Supporting public administration Support to Humanitarian Assistance Operations Disaster Relief Dislocated Civilian Support Technical Assistance and Support Consequence Management * AJP-3.4

Military Resilience Strategy Capability development/amendment through: Strategic environment assessment Identifying capability needed Deriving capability requirements Conducting a gap analysis Finding possible solutions (DOTMLPF-I Approach) Applying of the new capability

NATO SPS Program Advanced Research Workshop Thank You! Major Stoyan STOYANOV E&T Branch, CMDR COE NATO SPS Program Advanced Research Workshop 05-07 July 2016, Sofia, BULGARIA

Framework(s) Hyogo Framework 2005 - 2015 Governance Risk management Knowledge management and education Risk Factors Reducing Effective response and recovery Sendai Framework 2015 - 2030 Understanding Disaster Risk Disaster Risk Governance Investing in Disaster Risk Reduction Effective R4 Source: UNISDR

Disaster Management Process * Mitigation measures Resilience Building Capability/Plans Development Preventive measures Warning/ Evacuation Assessment (LL) Saving People Economic and Social Recovery Providing Assistance Damages Assessment Resettlement/Relocation Restoration of Infrastructural Services * Source: UNISDR/2009

Risk Management Process * * Source: ISO 31000/2009

Risk Management Process * * Source: ISO 31000/2009

Resilience Strategies Capability development trough: Flexible response Reducing risk Planning for displacement Anticipating climate risks Adjustment in security analysis Scenarios for lack of recourses